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May 31 official card: Tatsuya Imai under 14.5 outs at +116 FanDuel (2u), Merrill Kelly under 4.5 Ks at +128 (2u), Kyle Bradish under 17.5 outs at +116 (1u), and Braxton Ashcraft over 5.5 Ks at +136 (1u), plus free strikeout unders on Bradish and Lodolo. Tracker verified through settled May 30 markets.
Betting Two Aces Who Own The Opening Frame: The July 12 Phillies At Tigers No Runs First Inning
Phillies at Tigers No Runs First Inning at -155 on DraftKings for one unit, Comerica Park, taken as the first-inning Under 0.5 runs. Zack Wheeler holds the first inning to a 1.29 ERA with a .143 average against and eight straight scoreless firsts, while Tarik Skubal has struck out 17 without a walk in 12 opening frames, his 4.50 first-inning ERA driven by 5 solo homers. Two sub-1.00 WHIP aces against two strong early lineups at a steep 60.8 percent break-even, with the same market past -190 elsewhere. Every number verified live.
Read the full first-inning breakdown with chartsBetting Trey Yesavage's Frame Dominance At Petco Park: The July 11 Blue Jays At Padres No Runs First Inning
Blue Jays at Padres No Runs First Inning at -125 on DraftKings for one unit, Petco Park, taken as the first-inning Under 0.5 runs. Trey Yesavage holds first innings to a .174 average against with 12 strikeouts in 13 opening frames and 9 clean firsts in 13 starts, against a Padres offense hitting .190 with a .615 OPS in the first inning, while Walker Buehler's five first-inning runs across his last two starts are the honest risk against Toronto's .723 first-inning OPS. Every number verified live.
Read the full first-inning breakdown with chartsBetting Nick Martinez's Elite Command In The Opening Frame: The July 10 Mariners At Rays No Runs First Inning
Mariners at Rays No Runs First Inning at -113 on DraftKings for one unit, Tropicana Field, taken as the first-inning Under 0.5 runs. Nick Martinez anchors the frame with a 2.61 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 1.62 walks-per-nine rate that suppresses the free baserunners early runs are built on, while Luis Castillo's 4.79 ERA and 0.98 home-runs-per-nine rate are the honest risk on the other half. Two sub-1.35 WHIP starters in a controlled indoor park at a modest 53.1 percent break-even. Every number verified live.
Read the full first-inning breakdown with chartsBaseball's Quietest 1.71 ERA Takes His Bat-Missing Stuff To Miami: The July 9 Bryce Miller Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Bryce Miller over 5.5 strikeouts at -132 on FanDuel for one unit, loanDepot park. The Mariners right-hander carries a 1.71 ERA and a 0.66 WHIP with a 10.6 K/9 rate, has cleared 5.5 strikeouts in six straight starts (6, 9, 7, 7, 11, 8), and averages about 7.4 over his last eight against a Miami lineup that whiffs at a 21.5 percent clip. The honest risk is the length of his outing, since a short five-inning night caps the total. Every number verified live.
Read the full strikeout breakdown with chartsSeven Overs In Eight Starts, And Six Strikeouts Against These Same Rangers: The July 8 Walbert Urena Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Walbert Urena over 4.5 strikeouts at -102 on FanDuel for one unit, Globe Life Field. The Angels' 22-year-old righty carries a 3.03 ERA and an 8.7 K/9 rate, has cleared 4.5 strikeouts in seven of his last eight starts, and struck out six of these same Rangers over five innings on May 23. The honest risk is his command, a 4.8 walks-per-nine rate that can shorten the start. Every number verified live.
Read the full strikeout breakdown with chartsBetting Against deGrom's 9.00 First-Inning ERA: The July 7 Angels Rangers No Runs First Inning
Angels at Rangers No Runs First Inning at -134 on DraftKings for 1.5 units, Globe Life Field. Jose Soriano owns a clean 3.00 first-inning ERA with one first-inning homer all year, while Jacob deGrom carries a 3.48 season ERA but a startling 9.00 first-inning ERA and 8 first-inning home runs. The honest risk is loud: deGrom's opening frame against an Angels lineup with 21 first-inning homers. Every number verified live.
Read the full first-inning breakdown with chartsBack From The Ankle Scare: The July 6 Dustin May Over 3.5 Strikeouts Vs Brewers
Dustin May over 3.5 strikeouts at -164 on FanDuel for one unit, Busch Stadium. May carries an 8.34 K/9 season rate and struck out nine Brewers without a walk over seven innings the last time he faced this exact lineup on May 27. The honest risk is workload after two shortened outings in his last three turns, including a July 2 ankle exit. Every number verified live.
Read the full strikeout breakdown with chartsHancock's 1.69 First-Inning ERA Meets A Quiet Toronto Early Offense: The July 5 Blue Jays Mariners No Runs First Inning
Blue Jays at Mariners No Runs First Inning at -124 on DraftKings for one unit, T-Mobile Park. Emerson Hancock has thrown a scoreless first in 13 of 16 starts with a 1.69 first-inning ERA and a .164 average against in the frame, facing a Toronto offense that scores in the first in only 23.6 percent of its games. Trey Yesavage counters with a .186 first-inning average against and 8 clean firsts in 12 starts. The honest risk is Seattle's 17 first-inning homers and the 55.4 percent break-even. Every number verified live.
Read the full NRFI breakdown with chartsA Workload Over On A Deep-Going Arm: The July 4 Michael Wacha Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Michael Wacha over 4.5 strikeouts at -111 on FanDuel for one unit, Phillies at Royals, Kauffman Stadium. Wacha carries only a 19 percent strikeout rate, but he averages 6.4 innings a start and volume carries a low line. He averages 4.94 strikeouts per outing and has cleared 4.5 in 12 of 17 starts, a 70.6 percent rate against a 52.6 percent break-even. The Phillies whiff at 23.5 percent, a tailwind. The honest risk is a short soft-contact night like his June dip. Every number verified live.
Read the full strikeout breakdown with chartsOhtani Has Not Allowed A First-Inning Run All Year: The July 3 Padres Dodgers No Runs First Inning
Padres at Dodgers No Runs First Inning at -114 for one unit, Dodger Stadium. Shohei Ohtani has thrown a scoreless first in all 13 starts and has not allowed a first-inning run this season, holding the frame to a .152 average. Michael King has been clean in 16 of 17 opening frames. The Padres are a soft early offense at a .589 first-inning OPS. The honest risk is the Dodgers' .822 first-inning bats and the 53.3 percent break-even. Every number verified live.
Read the full NRFI breakdown with chartsTwo Clean First-Inning Streaks: The July 2 Tigers Rangers No Runs First Inning
Tigers at Rangers No Runs First Inning at -137 (FanDuel Under 0.5 first-inning runs -148) for one unit, Globe Life Field. Framber Valdez has opened scoreless in four straight starts and 12 of 17, Nathan Eovaldi in five straight and 10 of 16, and Eovaldi walks just 2.06 per nine, choking off the free baserunners that make early runs. Both offenses are held scoreless in the first about 70 percent of the time. The honest risk is the 57.8 percent break-even. Every number verified live.
Read the full NRFI breakdown with chartsA Contact Pitcher At A Low Line: The July 1 McGreevy Strikeout Over
Michael McGreevy over 3.5 strikeouts at +128 on FanDuel for one unit, Cardinals at Braves. McGreevy is a contact-first sinkerballer with a modest 5.74 K/9 and a 3.12 ERA, but his 3.56 per-start average clears a low 3.5 line and the plus price needs only 43.9 percent to profit while a rate projection lands the over near 48 percent. The honest risk is his floor and Atlanta's 21.2 percent contact rate. Plus an Andrew Abbott over 4.5 lean at +130. Every number verified live.
Read the full strikeout breakdown with chartsTwo Low-Strikeout Starters, Two Plus-Money Unders: The June 30 Card
Mike Burrows under 4.5 strikeouts at +110 on FanDuel (0.5u), Twins at Astros, a 7.28 K/9 arm with a four-strikeout median who has gone under 4.5 in eight of 15 starts. Plus Justin Wrobleski under 4.5 at +118 (0.5u), the Dodgers lefty with a 5.53 K/9, the lowest of any regular starter, under in nine of 14 outings. Both face soft-whiff lineups, both pay plus money. The honest risk is a deep swing-and-miss night, so each stake is a half unit. Every number verified live.
Read the full strikeout breakdown with chartsGasser Misses Bats But Never Faces Enough Hitters: The June 29 Strikeout Under
Robert Gasser under 5.5 strikeouts at -102 on FanDuel for one unit, Reds at Brewers. Gasser runs a 9.3 K/9 but has not thrown a pitch in the seventh inning all year, averaging just under five frames and landing under 5.5 in four of six starts (3, 4, 5, 7, 5, 7). His 5.2 per-start pace sits below the line and -102 is a near coin flip. The honest risk is Cincinnati's 26.4 percent team strikeout rate. Every number verified live.
Read the full strikeout breakdown with chartsSale And Ray Lock The First: The June 28 Braves Giants NRFI
No Run First Inning at -150 on DraftKings for one unit. Chris Sale brings a 1.29 first-inning ERA with 20 opening-frame strikeouts over 14 starts; Robbie Ray has not allowed a first-inning run in five straight starts and blanked these Braves over 6.1 innings on June 16. Add a cold Atlanta offense just shut out 5-0 and an Oracle Park marine layer that swallows early home runs. The honest risk is the 60 percent break-even at -150. Every number verified live.
Read the full first-inning breakdown with chartsDetmers Under And Harrison Over: The June 27 Strikeout Card
Two full-unit plays on opposite sides plus two half-unit leans. Reid Detmers under 7.5 at -140, an elite bat-misser whose six-inning workload caps him at a 6.67 per start pace; Kyle Harrison over 5.5 at -148, a 10.9 K/9 arm who has dominated the Cubs, including 11 strikeouts in seven shutout innings at Wrigley on May 20; Foster Griffin under 6.5 at -166, a recent-form lean under the line in five of six; and Slade Cecconi under 4.5 at -132 against a whiff-heavy Seattle lineup. First-inning markets: documented pass. Every line verified live.
Read the full four-prop strikeout card with chartsFour Pitcher Strikeout Unders And A Sasaki Over: The June 26 Card
Four unders built on per-start pace below the line: Patrick Corbin under 3.5 at +118, a faded Blue Jays veteran on shrinking innings; Trevor Rogers under 4.5 at +108 against a Washington lineup that hits .357 off him; Paul Skenes under 8.5 at -147, an elite arm priced two strikeouts over his 6.69 pace on a six-inning workload; and a half-unit Joey Cantillo under 5.5 at -122, the contested leg against a whiff-heavy Seattle. Plus a half-unit Roki Sasaki over 5.5 lean at -120 on a sharper splitter. First-inning markets: documented pass. Every line verified live.
Read the full five-prop strikeout card with chartsCade Cavalli Over 4.5 Strikeouts vs Phillies: The High-Rate Matchup Read
The confirmed Nationals starter against Philadelphia carries a 9.55 K/9 rate over 16 starts and a 5.13 per start average, above the 4.5 line, with high-end games of 9, 8 and 7 in his recent log. The Phillies whiff 23.2 percent of the time, the kind of free-swinging lineup that feeds a power arm. The honest counterweight is durability, with two of his last three starts ending early, so the over stays a single unit. Paired with a Jeffrey Springs under 4.5 half unit, a struggling Athletics lefty in shrinking starts against a contact Giants lineup. We passed Kevin Gausman under 5.5 at too steep a price. Every line verified live.
Read the full Cavalli and Springs prop card with chartsMatthew Liberatore Over 3.5 Strikeouts vs Diamondbacks: The Low-Line Read
The confirmed Cardinals starter against Arizona carries an 8.35 K/9 rate over 15 starts and a 4.47 per start average, a full strikeout over the 3.5 line. His last seven went 5, 9, 10, 4, 4, 4 and 2, six of seven clearing the number. Arizona whiffs only 16.7 percent against lefties, the honest counterweight, but the low line leaves room. Paired with a Braxton Ashcraft over 5.5 half unit, a Pirates power arm with a 9.63 K/9 facing a whiff-heavy Seattle lineup. We dropped the Miles Mikolas over 3.5 signal because only one Cardinal starts today. Every line verified live.
Read the full Liberatore and Ashcraft prop card with chartsRobbie Ray Under 6.5 Strikeouts vs Athletics: The Shrinking Innings Read
An elite 10.51 K/9 lefty who has still cleared 6.5 strikeouts in only two of fifteen starts because the Giants keep pulling him in the fifth. His last seven went 2, 1, 3, 6, 4, 3 and 8, and his 4.93 per start sit well below the line. Paired with a Nick Lodolo under 4.5 half unit, a modest-rate Reds lefty against a contact Milwaukee lineup. We dropped the Luinder Avila over 3.5 strong lean as a swingman artifact. Every line verified live.
Read the full Ray and Lodolo prop card with chartsDylan Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts vs Astros: The AL Strikeout Leader Read
The American League strikeout leader with 110 punchouts and a 13.6 K/9 across 13 starts, averaging 8.46 per outing against a 6.5 line. His last five starts all cleared with 7, 11, 8, 9 and 10. Houston is a contact lineup that does not chase, the honest counterweight, but his stuff travels. Paired with an Andre Pallante over 3.5 full unit on a durable volume arm. Every line verified live.
Read the full Cease and Pallante prop card with chartsEmmet Sheehan Under 6.5 Strikeouts vs Orioles: The Dodgers Workload Read
A Dodgers arm with a near double digit K/9 but short, managed starts that average just 5.5 punchouts and have cleared 6.5 in only four of thirteen outings. The Orioles whiff at a high 24.5 percent rate, the honest counterweight, but his short leash is the harder force to beat. Paired with a Logan Gilbert under 6.5 plus money half unit lean. Every line verified live.
Read the full Sheehan and Gilbert prop card with chartsCade Cavalli Over 4.5 Strikeouts vs Rays: The Nationals Whiff Edge
A Nationals righty with a 9.76 K/9 and 81 strikeouts in 74.2 innings, averaging 5.4 punchouts per start against a 4.5 line. His last six starts include 8, 9, 7, 6 and 5 strikeouts. The Rays whiff just 18.9 percent of the time, the honest counterweight, but the soft line already prices it in. Paired with a Joey Cantillo under 4.5 half unit lean. Every line verified live.
Read the full Cavalli and Cantillo prop card with chartsSuarez Under and Miller Over Strikeouts: The Red Sox at Mariners Prop Split
One game, two directions. Ranger Suarez is a contact lefty with a 9.00 K/9 who pitches short outings and leans on a sinker, fitting the under 5.5 he has hit in five of his last nine starts. Bryce Miller fires a 96.6 mph four seam nearly half the time with a 9.26 K/9 against a Red Sox lineup that whiffs 22.0 percent, fitting the over 4.5 he has cleared in four of six starts. Every line verified live.
Read the full Suarez and Miller prop card with chartsRyan Weathers Over 5.5 Strikeouts vs White Sox: The Yankees Swing and Miss Edge
A Yankees lefty with a 9.81 K/9 and a 3.86 strikeout to walk ratio draws a White Sox lineup that strikes out 23.9 percent of the time, the higher end of the league. He has cleared 5.5 strikeouts in 53.8 percent of his starts with ceiling games of 10, 9, and 8, and the strikeout prone matchup is the lift. Every line verified live.
Read the full Ryan Weathers prop card with chartsMatthew Liberatore Under 15.5 Outs vs Royals: The Cardinals Short Leash Edge
A Cardinals lefty carrying a 1.50 WHIP whose starts keep shrinking, with 4.1 innings in each of his last two and 16 or fewer outs in nine of fourteen starts. He has landed under 15.5 outs in 64.3 percent of his starts, and a contact heavy Royals lineup will not hand him quick frames. A half unit for game flow variance. Every line verified live.
Read the full Matthew Liberatore prop card with chartsNoah Cameron Over 4.5 Strikeouts vs Cardinals: The Royals Plus Money Strikeout Edge
A Royals lefty with an 8.23 K/9 and a 3.76 strikeout to walk ratio draws a Cardinals lineup that strikes out 20.7 percent of the time. The over sits at plus money, so it only needs 48.1 percent to profit, and Cameron has cleared 4.5 strikeouts in seven of thirteen starts. Liberatore on the other side is a documented pass. Every line verified live.
Read the full June 18 prop card with chartsJavier Assad And Braxton Ashcraft Pitcher Strikeout Prop Edges: The June 17 Board
Two strikeout legs on opposite sides of the line. Javier Assad under 4.5 Ks at -160, a Cubs swingman averaging 3.5 strikeouts per start against a non-chasing Rockies lineup, headlines. Braxton Ashcraft over 5.5 at -104 is the near-even over, a 9.57 K/9 arm averaging 6.43 per start with double-digit upside. Every first-inning and batter market graded a pass. Minimum stakes, every line verified live.
Read the full June 17 prop card with chartsDylan Cease Over 7.5 Strikeouts: The Blue Jays at Red Sox Headliner
Cease leads American League starters at 13.63 K/9, averages 8.58 strikeouts per start, and is riding a five-start surge of 9.4 per outing. He has cleared 7.5 in six of his last eight, all five of his last five, against a Boston lineup that whiffs on the slider he uses to put hitters away. Plus money on the AL strikeout leader, 1.5 units, every line verified live.
Read the full June 16 Cease prop card with chartsGore, Urena, Ginn And May Pitcher Strikeout Prop Edges: The June 15 Board
MacKenzie Gore under 5.5 Ks at +124 headlines, a high-velocity arm whose per start total lands at 5 or fewer in 8 of 14 starts thanks to short outings. Walbert Urena over 4.5 at +118 is the value over trending up, with Ginn and May half-unit overs against strikeout-prone lineups. Every first-inning market graded negative EV. Minimum stakes, every line verified live.
Read the full June 15 prop card with chartsTaj Bradley And Stephen Kolek Strikeout Over Props: The June 14 Board
Two strikeout overs set below the pitcher's own pace on a pitching-heavy Sunday. Bradley over 5.5 at +124 with a 10.11 K/9 against the Cardinals, Kolek over 3.5 at -132 against an Astros lineup that whiffs, why we passed on Sugano, and a first-inning YRFI and NRFI read. Minimum stakes, every line verified live.
Read the full strikeout breakdown with chartsdeGrom, Skubal, Schlittler Strikeout Prop Analysis: The June 13 Ace Board
Four aces, four very different strikeout numbers. Schlittler over 5.5 at +104, Skubal under 5.5 at -128 on a pitch-count return, deGrom at a 6.5 total, plus Yamamoto's loudest matchup of the slate and a full first-inning YRFI and NRFI read. Analysis only, every line verified on FanDuel.
Read the full ace strikeout breakdown with chartsBraxton Ashcraft Over 5.5 Strikeouts vs Marlins: The Pirates Strikeout Edge
Ashcraft carries a 9.72 K/9 with a 5.06 strikeout-to-walk ratio, struck out 11 two starts ago, and draws a Marlins lineup that whiffs at a 21.8 percent clip. The rate and the matchup point over, sized at a half unit with the misses laid out honestly.
Read the full strikeout breakdown with chartsBryan Woo Under 6.5 Strikeouts vs Orioles: The Honest Pass
The model flagged a thin under lean as the only play on Thursday's board, but Woo has averaged 7.67 strikeouts over his last six starts and cleared 6.5 in five of six. We show the full Mariners-Orioles read and explain why we are posting zero units rather than chasing a number recent form blows up.
Read the full strikeout board breakdownRobbie Ray Under, Michael Lorenzen Over: The Wednesday Strikeout Board
Two opposite leans for the slate. Fade Robbie Ray under 5.5 strikeouts as his whiff rate slides against a contact-first Nationals lineup, and back Michael Lorenzen over a short 3.5 at Coors after clearing four in four of his last six. First-inning NRFI and YRFI reads attached.
Read the full strikeout board breakdownKyle Harrison Over 16.5 Outs Recorded: Brewers Lefty Keeps Stretching Deeper vs Athletics
Milwaukee's 7-1, 1.57 ERA lefty has logged 21, 18 and 17 outs in three of his last four starts as the Brewers extend his workload. The line sits at his recent average against a manageable Athletics lineup in Las Vegas. An honest lean over at -106 on FanDuel.
Read the full Kyle Harrison outs breakdownBest MLB Strikeout Reads June 7: Cantillo, Gausman, Prielipp, Plus Four Team Total Unders
No strikeout prop carried a unit today, so the board's three sharpest reads are analysis only, headlined by Joey Cantillo under 5.5 Ks at -154, the model's biggest disagreement with the market. The units sit on four team total unders: Tigers under 3.5, Astros under 4.5, Blue Jays under 4.5 and Rockies under 4.5. The Tigers number steamed from 4.5 to 3.5 in the morning.
Read the full June 7 model readsBest MLB Pitcher Props June 6: Ashcraft, Joe Ryan, Imai, Bradish, Leiter, McLean
Six tracked pitcher props headline Saturday: Ashcraft over 5.5 Ks at -102 anchors the card, Joe Ryan under 17.5 outs at +124 is the top plus-money value, and three more unders round it out. Every one of the 15 first-inning markets graded negative EV, so there are no NRFI or YRFI plays today.
Read the full June 6 prop cardAnthony Kay Over 4.5 Strikeouts: White Sox at Phillies
Plus money against the most whiff-prone lineup in baseball: the Phillies strike out 8.31 times per game on a .227 average, and Kay has hit 5 Ks in four of his last six starts. The model projects 5.65 and grades the over at 61% against a 47.2% break-even.
Read the Kay strikeout over breakdownTrey Yesavage Under 6.5 Strikeouts: Orioles at Blue Jays
Toronto caps the rookie at 5.3 innings per start and he has finished at 6 or fewer Ks in five of his last six, including 4 against this same Baltimore lineup on May 30. The model projects 5.58 and grades the under at 73% against a 59.7% break-even.
Read the Yesavage strikeout under breakdownEdward Cabrera Over 4.5 Strikeouts: Giants at Cubs
Two short outings dragged the price to plus money on a line he cleared in four of his last six starts while his 7.83 K/9 never moved. The model projects 5.46 and grades the over at 58% against a 48.1% break-even at Wrigley.
Read the Cabrera strikeout over breakdownDrew Rasmussen Under 4.5 Strikeouts: Rays at Marlins
The model projects 4.5 strikeouts and grades the under at 60% against a 51.0% break-even at the verified FanDuel price.
Read the Rasmussen strikeout under breakdownBrandon Young Over 4.5 Strikeouts: Orioles at Blue Jays
The model projects 5.17 strikeouts and grades the over at 52% against a 44.6% break-even at the verified FanDuel price.
Read the Young strikeout over breakdownMitch Keller Under 4.5 Strikeouts: Pirates at Braves
The model projects 4.41 strikeouts and grades the under at 62% against a 53.3% break-even at the verified FanDuel price.
Read the Keller strikeout under breakdownRyan Weathers Under 6.5 Strikeouts: Red Sox at Yankees
The model projects 6.18 strikeouts and grades the under at 64% against a 58.0% break-even at the verified FanDuel price.
Read the Weathers strikeout under breakdownRobbie Ray Under 4.5 Strikeouts: Giants at Cubs
The model projects 4.88 strikeouts and grades the under at 53% against a 49.0% break-even at the verified FanDuel price.
Read the Ray strikeout under breakdownFramber Valdez Over 4.5 Strikeouts: Mariners at Tigers
The model projects 5.8 strikeouts and grades the over at 63% against a 58.7% break-even at the verified FanDuel price.
Read the Valdez strikeout over breakdownSonny Gray Under 5.5 Strikeouts: Red Sox at Yankees
The model projects 5.35 strikeouts and grades the under at 62% against a 58.3% break-even at the verified FanDuel price.
Read the Gray strikeout under breakdownGavin Williams Over 6.5 Strikeouts: Guardians at Yankees
Cleveland's 88-strikeout ace (8-3, 3.07 ERA, three 10+ K games) draws a Yankees lineup with the 8th-most strikeouts in MLB. The model projects 8.26 punchouts and grades the over at 72% against a 55% break-even.
Read the Williams strikeout over breakdownFreddy Peralta Over 5.5 Strikeouts: Mets at Mariners
A 68-strikeout bat-misser with a 9-K game on May 23 gets a Seattle lineup whiffing at 23.5%. The model projects 7.44 strikeouts, nearly two above the line, and grades the over at 75% against a 60.6% break-even.
Read the Peralta strikeout over breakdownLuinder Avila Under 3.5 Strikeouts: Royals at Reds
A multi-inning Royals arm (20 K across 10 appearances, 5.06 ERA) draws a short-leash spot start at Great American Ball Park. A capped pitch count projects near 2.8 punchouts, a full strikeout under the line. Model grades the under at 63%.
Read the Avila strikeout under breakdownFree Pick: Nick Lodolo Under 7.5 Strikeouts vs the Braves
Underdog Sports posted Lodolo at 7.5 strikeouts and the model takes the Lower. He projects to 4.50 punchouts on a 19.6% K-rate across 4 starts, three full strikeouts below the line. The under grades at 91.3%.
Read the free Lodolo strikeout pickFree Pick: Kyle Bradish Under 6.5 Strikeouts vs the Blue Jays
Underdog Sports posted Bradish at 6.5 strikeouts and the model takes the Lower. He projects to 5.55 punchouts on a 24.0% K-rate across 11 starts, and Toronto brings a contact-heavy 19.3% team strikeout lineup. The under grades at 67.9% (fair odds -211).
Read the free Bradish strikeout pickMay 31 Model Card: Tatsuya Imai and Kyle Bradish Outs Unders, a Merrill Kelly Strikeout Under and a Braxton Ashcraft Strikeout Over
Two short-leash outs unders headline Sunday's 15-game slate plus a low-K under and a swing-and-miss over: Tatsuya Imai under 14.5 outs at +116 FanDuel (2u, top edge at +73.1% EV), Merrill Kelly under 4.5 Ks at +128 (2u, +48.9% EV), Kyle Bradish under 17.5 outs at +116 (1u, +44.2% EV), and Braxton Ashcraft over 5.5 Ks at +136 (1u, +44.2% EV).
Read the May 31 strikeout & outs cardMay 30 Model Card: Ryne Nelson and Brady Singer Outs Unders, Jesus Luzardo Strikeout Over and a Kyle Leahy Outs Under
Three short-leash outs unders headline Saturday's 15-game slate plus a swing-and-miss over: Ryne Nelson under 17.5 outs at +124 FanDuel (2u, top edge at +40.0% EV), Brady Singer under 14.5 outs at +134 (2u, +38.4% EV), Jesus Luzardo over 5.5 Ks at -115 (1u), and Kyle Leahy under 16.5 outs at -128 (1u).
Read the May 30 strikeout & outs cardMay 29 Model Card: Zac Gallen Strikeout Under, Zack Wheeler Strikeout Over and a Diamondbacks-Mariners NRFI Lean
Two strikeout edges headline Friday's 15-game slate plus an NRFI lean: Zac Gallen under 4.5 Ks at +114 FanDuel (1u, top edge at +24.1% EV), Zack Wheeler over 6.5 Ks at +140 FanDuel (0.75u), and a Diamondbacks-Mariners no-run first at -148 behind Gallen vs Kirby in the lowest-scoring park in baseball.
Read the May 29 strikeout & NRFI cardMay 28 Model Card: Payton Tolle Strikeout Over, Paul Skenes Strikeout Over and a Braves-Red Sox NRFI Lean
Two strikeout edges headline Thursday's six-game slate plus an NRFI lean: Payton Tolle over 5.5 Ks at -118 FanDuel (1u), Paul Skenes over 6.5 Ks at -106 FanDuel (0.5-1u), and Braves-Red Sox no-run first behind Sale vs Tolle with Boston ranking 29th in 1st-inning runs at 0.30/game.
Read the May 28 strikeout & NRFI cardMay 27 Model Card: Tomoyuki Sugano Strikeout Under, Jacob deGrom Outs Under and Cristopher Sanchez Strikeout Over
Three model-backed edges headline Wednesday's 15-game slate: Tomoyuki Sugano under 2.5 Ks at +134 FanDuel (1u), Jacob deGrom under 17.5 outs at +126 FanDuel (1u), and Cristopher Sanchez over 6.5 Ks at -112 FanDuel (1.5u), plus a Phillies-Padres NRFI lean, each ranked by Poisson projection against the live FanDuel board.
Read the May 27 strikeout & outs cardMay 26 Model Card: Spencer Strider Over, Eduardo Rodriguez Under and Luis Severino Under
Three model-backed strikeout edges headline Tuesday's 15-game slate: Spencer Strider over 6.5 Ks at +116 FanDuel (1u), Eduardo Rodriguez under 4.5 Ks at -115 FanDuel (0.5u), and Luis Severino under 5.5 Ks at -114 FanDuel (0.5u), each ranked by Poisson projection against the live FanDuel board.
Read the May 26 strikeout prop cardMay 25 Model Card: Merrill Kelly Under, Will Warren Over, Tanner Bibee Outs and a Yankees-Royals NRFI
Four plus-money edges headline Monday's 13-game slate: Merrill Kelly under 4.5 Ks at +104 FanDuel (1.5u), Will Warren over 5.5 Ks at +124 FanDuel (1u), Tanner Bibee under 17.5 outs at +104 FanDuel (1u), and a Yankees-Royals no-run first inning at +102 FanDuel (1u), each ranked by Poisson projection against the live FanDuel board.
Read the May 25 strikeout, outs & NRFI cardMay 24 Model Card: Sonny Gray and Brady Singer Strikeout Unders Plus a Weathers Over
Three model-backed strikeout edges headline Sunday's 16-game slate: Sonny Gray under 5.5 Ks at -130 FanDuel (2u), Brady Singer under 4.5 Ks at -140 FanDuel (1.5u), and Ryan Weathers over 5.5 Ks at -112 FanDuel (1u), each ranked by Poisson projection against the live FanDuel board.
Read the May 24 strikeout & NRFI cardBradley, Houser, Gallen, Corbin: May 23 Strikeout Model Card
Four strikeout rows cleared the MLBProps.com +EV gate on Saturday's 16-game slate. Top edge: Taj Bradley Over 4.5 strikeouts at +122 FanDuel (+72.3% EV).
Read the May 23 strikeout model cardTaj Bradley Over 4.5 Strikeouts vs Red Sox: May 23 Top EV Play
The widest model-versus-market gap on the slate. A 9.96 K/9 projects to 6.5 strikeouts against a 4.5 line, and FanDuel is paying the over at +122 (+72.3% EV) for 2 units.
Open the Taj Bradley strikeout breakdownRyan Weathers Over 5.5 Strikeouts vs Rays: An Elite K/9 Hiding In Plain Sight
A 10.91 K/9 behind a 2-2 record. The model projects 6.8 strikeouts against a 5.5 line and makes the over 67.0% at essentially even money (+31.4% EV) for 1.5 units.
Open the Ryan Weathers strikeout breakdowndeGrom, Bassitt, Gausman: Top Pitcher Prop & NRFI Edges for May 22
Eight pitcher strikeout and outs-recorded plays plus two NRFI leans cleared the MLBProps.com +EV gate for Friday's 15-game slate. Top edge: Nick Martinez Over 15.5 outs at +122 (+56.4% EV).
Read the May 22 +EV pitcher prop & NRFI breakdown
Braves vs Marlins NRFI Pick for May 21, 2026
Official MLBProps.com play: Braves/Marlins NRFI for 2 units at -147 at loanDepot park, built around Spencer Strider vs Sandy Alcantara.
Open the May 21 NRFI report
Best MLB Props Today: Strikeout Card + Blue Jays-Yankees NRFI
Official MLBProps.com card: Hancock U5.5 at +110 FanDuel (2u), Littell O3.5 at +175 theScore (2u), Abbott O5.5 at +290 BetRivers (1u), and Blue Jays-Yankees NRFI at -125 DK (1u) behind Schlittler vs Yesavage.
Open the May 20 card
Bryce Miller Under 4.5 Strikeouts vs White Sox
Graded loss: Miller threw 7 Ks across 5.2 IP at T-Mobile Park. Pick was Miller under 4.5 Ks at -122 for 3 units.
Open the May 19 Miller strikeouts reportDodgers vs Padres NRFI Pick for May 18, 2026
Official MLBProps.com play: Dodgers/Padres NRFI for 2 units at Petco Park, built around Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Michael King.
Open the May 18 NRFI report
Paul Skenes Over 17.5 Outs vs Phillies
The lower six-inning threshold is the preferred Skenes outs position on the May 17 board.
Open the Skenes outs report
Phillies vs Pirates NRFI Pick for May 17, 2026
A specific first-inning suppression angle with verified DK odds, current starter stats, recent form, and analyzer notes.
Open the full May 17 NRFI report
Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts vs Pirates
The analyzer-backed add from the same Phillies-Pirates matchup, with DraftKings still paying plus money.
Open the Wheeler strikeout reportBest MLB Props Today: Clay Holmes Under Ks, Kyle Freeland Over Ks, Zack Littell Over Ks
Strikeout-only model report with live FanDuel prices, model probabilities, expected value, official-card filters, and source notes.
Open the full May 15 strikeout model reportBest MLB Props Today: Anthony Kay Over Ks, Kris Bubic Under Outs, Padres/Brewers NRFI
Elite analyzer report with live strikeout prices, pitcher-outs derivatives, first-inning run edges, charts, board tables, and source notes.
Open the full May 14 elite props reportBest MLB Props Today: Royals/White Sox YRFI, Tigers/Mets NRFI, and F5 Model Picks
Royals/White Sox YRFI and Tigers/Mets NRFI cashed, and the F5 stack carried the card to a 9-5, +4.97u finish.
Open the full May 12 MLB props articleBest MLB Props Today: Athletics/Orioles NRFI and Four More RFI Bets
May 10 card graded: 2-3, -0.60u. Athletics/Orioles NRFI won (+1.20u), Twins/Guardians YRFI lost (-1.00u), Braves/Dodgers YRFI lost (-1.00u), Pirates/Giants YRFI won (+1.20u), Yankees/Brewers NRFI lost (-1.00u).
Open the full May 10 MLB props articleMay 7 Official RFI Plays: Pirates/Diamondbacks YRFI, Mets/Rockies YRFI, Reds/Cubs NRFI
The May 7 first-inning card is graded 2-1 for +0.90u. Pirates/Diamondbacks YRFI and Reds/Cubs NRFI won; Mets/Rockies YRFI lost.
Open the headline Pirates/Diamondbacks YRFI articleOther MLB Props of Interest for May 5
The broader May 5 board is separated from official picks until current market lines and prices are verified. No fake odds, no forced plays, no home run props.
Read the May 5 watchlist and model notesThe May 20-24 slate cards are now graded.
Sonny Gray (4 K) and Taj Bradley (7 K) cashed and the Blue Jays-Yankees NRFI landed on a 0-0 first, but the wider board went 4-7 with one void as Brady Singer did not start May 24. Net -3.02 units across the stretch.
View the full graded ledger on the Results pageBest NRFI and YRFI First-Inning Picks: Cubs, Yankees, Tigers Lead a Three-Pick Positive EV Card
Three first-inning plays for the May 4 slate: Reds at Cubs NRFI +140 (won 0-0 in the first), Orioles at Yankees NRFI -105 (lost), and Red Sox at Tigers YRFI +140 (lost). Final card grades 1-2 for -0.65 units.
Read the full first-inning breakdownMay 2nd 2026 Best MLB Props: Top Pitcher Strikeout Bets and NRFI YRFI Picks With Positive Expected Value
Seven model-graded plays covering pitcher strikeout overs and unders plus NRFI and YRFI leans for the Sunday May 3 slate. Each pick includes the model line, market price, and the EV gap that flagged it.
Read the May 2 pregame portfolio
Spencer Arrighetti Over 2.5 Strikeouts at DraftKings (+150)
The April 20 board projects 4.78 strikeouts and clears the over 2.5 line 85.5% of the time, making the +150 number the wildest price-to-threshold gap on the slate.
April 20, 2026 · Research play · 3.0u candidate signal
Kyle Bradish Over 5.5 Strikeouts at DraftKings (+126)
Bradish carries a 6.80 strikeout projection and a 67.3% model hit rate. The article case is built around the price: plus money on a pitcher with verified recent bat-missing seasons.
April 20, 2026 · Research play · 3.0u candidate signal
Bryce Elder Under 5.5 Strikeouts at DraftKings (+120)
Elder's traditional form is strong, but the long-run strikeout profile is still modest enough that a 4.80 K projection makes the plus-money under worth a full write-up.
April 20, 2026 · Research play · 3.0u candidate signalMets vs Cubs NRFI at MGM (+105)
Friday's only official first-inning threshold play. The model makes the no-run side 51.21% while the market only asks for 48.78%, even in a game carrying a full total of 10.
April 17, 2026 · 1 Unit · Official Model Pick
Zack Littell Over 3.5 Strikeouts at FanDuel (+134)
Giants at Nationals on April 17, 2026. The model projects 4.34 strikeouts with a 62.93% hit rate, making this the best plus-money strikeout price on the Friday board.
April 17, 2026 · 1 Unit · Research Desk Model Pick
Michael Wacha Under 17.5 Outs at DraftKings (-133)
Royals at Yankees on April 17, 2026. The model mean sits at 14.56 outs with a 78.21% under probability, putting almost a full inning of room beneath the listed 17.5.
April 17, 2026 · 1 Unit · Research Desk Model Pick
Chris Bassitt Over 3.5 Strikeouts at DraftKings (-139)
Orioles at Guardians on April 17, 2026. Bassitt projects for 5.13 strikeouts with a 75.19% hit rate, and the line still only asks him to get to four.
April 17, 2026 · 1 Unit · Research Desk Model Pick
Chase Burns Under 16.5 Outs at DraftKings (-125)
Giants at Reds on April 16, 2026. The live model centers Burns at 12.65 outs with an 85.57% under probability, making this the biggest raw edge on the ranked board.
April 16, 2026 · Loss · 18 outs allowed the over
Jacob Lopez Over 15.5 Outs at DraftKings (+109)
Rangers at Athletics on April 16, 2026. The model projects 17.27 outs with a 66.10% hit rate, making Lopez the best plus-money innings-length play in the current analyzer output.
April 16, 2026 · Loss · finished at 15 outs
Landen Roupp Under 5.5 Strikeouts at DraftKings (-108)
Giants at Reds on April 16, 2026. Roupp projects for 4.54 strikeouts in a game carrying a 9.19-run total, so the model still grades the under as a clear edge at current price.
April 16, 2026 · Loss · Roupp finished with 6 Ks
Seth Lugo Over 4.5 Strikeouts at Bet365 (+105)
Royals at Tigers on April 16, 2026. Bet365's plus-money price screened as a market outlier against a 4.72 K projection and consensus sanity check showing positive expected value.
April 16, 2026 · 1 Unit · Model Pick
Misiorowski Under 16.5 Outs vs Blue Jays (-105)
Averaging 16.33 outs per start through 3 outings. Only cleared this line once. 9 BB in 16.1 IP inflate pitch counts. Milwaukee managing his workload carefully. Faces Gausman (2.08 ERA, 13.5 K/9) in a game script that keeps the leash short.
April 14, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Sanchez Over 6.5 Strikeouts vs Cubs (+104)
12.6 K/9 rate in 2026 with 23 K through 3 starts and a 1.65 ERA. Opened the season with 10 K against Texas. Cubs K rate sits at 22.2%. Plus money on an elite arm at Citizens Bank Park. Over has cashed in 2 of 3 starts.
April 13, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Wrobleski Under 3.5 Strikeouts vs Mets (+134)
Averaging 2.00 K per start in 2026 with a 0% over rate at every threshold. Contact-first pitcher facing a contact-first Mets lineup (20.8% K rate). The 3.5 line sits 1.5 K above his actual pace, at plus money. Under 2-for-2 in 2026.
April 13, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Cavalli Under 3.5 Strikeouts vs Pirates (+128)
5.6 BB/9 in 2026 burns pitches and caps innings. K totals of 5, 3, 3 across 3 starts. Ground ball specialist whose xERA (4.22) screams regression. Under cashed in 2 of 3 starts this year. Plus money on structural K limitations.
April 13, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts vs Cubs (-115)
100.2 mph fastball with a -4.1 degree VAA and the unhittable Splinker at 94-96. Posting 13.4 K/9 in 2026. Cubs rank 4th in K% against RHP power arms at 26.2%. The 7.5 line underprices his K ceiling in this matchup.
April 12, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases vs Rangers (-125)
96.4 mph avg exit velo, 58.4% hard-hit rate, 19.2% barrel rate, all 99th percentile. Faces Jon Gray, whose slider hangs middle-zone against LHH. Globe Life Field playing hot with +12% carry metric. The 1.5 line does not account for this hard-hit floor.
April 12, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Sheehan Under 5.5 Strikeouts vs Rangers (+118)
Dodgers have capped Sheehan at 83 and 98 pitches in his first two 2026 starts coming off Tommy John. Averaging 4.5 IP and exactly 4.0 K per outing. The line sits 1.5 K above his actual 2026 pace, at plus money. Under 2-for-2 in 2026.
April 11, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Lopez Under 4.5 Strikeouts vs Mets (+116)
10 walks in 8.1 IP this year. Averaging 4.0 IP and 3.0 K per start with the bloated pitch counts pulling him from games early. Patient Mets lineup at Citi Field won't chase. Plus money on a structural command problem. Under 2-for-2 in 2026.
April 11, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Kochanowicz Under 3.5 Strikeouts vs Reds (-106)
56.5% under rate across 23 career starts with a 3.1 K average. Last 5 K totals: 3, 3, 2, 1, 1 (L5 avg 2.0). Extreme groundball profile. Only 5 K in 9.2 IP in 2026. The 3.5 line is a full K above his L5 average.
WIN 2K +1.00u April 10, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Paddack Under 3.5 Strikeouts vs Tigers (+118)
Plus money on a pitcher averaging 2.4 K over his last 10 starts. 54.5% career under rate. L5: 4, 2, 1, 2, 5 (avg 2.8). 2026: 8.31 ERA through 2 starts. Comerica Park is contact friendly.
LOSS 4K -1.00u April 10, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Buehler Under 4.5 Strikeouts vs Rockies (-146)
84.6% under rate (22 of 26 starts). Last 5 K totals: 4, 2, 3, 3, 2 (avg 2.8). L10 avg 2.9 K. 2026: 9.45 ERA, 16.6% K rate (14th percentile whiff). Buehler has lost K upside since elbow surgeries.
WIN 4K +1.00u April 10, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Rodriguez Under 4.5 Strikeouts vs Mets (-120)
17.4% K rate, 2.27 xERA through 12 IP. Changeup generates just 10% K rate on ending PAs. Mets at 20.5% team K rate with .330 OBP and 107 wRC+. Blended projection: ~4.0 strikeouts. Contact manager vs contact lineup.
WIN 3K +1.00u April 9, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Woo Under 1.5 Earned Runs vs Rangers (+100)
1.38 ERA with 0.54 WHIP (3rd in MLB). Only 5 hits and 2 ER in 13 IP all season. Last start: 7 scoreless innings. Plus money on an All-Star ace. This is the best value prop on the board.
WIN 1ER +1.00u April 8, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Ohtani Under 4.5 Hits Allowed vs Blue Jays (-130)
1 hit in 6 shutout IP in his 2026 debut. Toronto hitting .231 BA (16th), .348 SLG (21st), on a 6-game losing streak. Scored 1 run last game. Ace duel with Cease. Dead offense vs elite arm.
WIN 4HA +1.00u April 8, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Valdez Under 5.5 Strikeouts vs Twins (-113)
Career groundball pitcher, not a strikeout arm. K/9 around 8.0. Sinker/curveball induces weak contact. Over 5.5 at -107 on DK means the line is tight. His profile says 4-5 K in 6-7 IP, not 6+.
WIN 2K +1.00u April 8, 2026 · 1 Unit · Moderate Confidence
Skubal Under 1.5 Earned Runs vs Twins (-160)
Back-to-back Cy Young winner has 0.69 ERA through 13 IP with just 1 ER all season. Minnesota hitting .169 vs LHP (28th). Edge scanner: 90.9% under rate in this profile.
LOSS 4ER -1.60u April 7, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Alcantara Earned Runs Under vs Reds
0.00 ERA through 16 IP. Complete game shutout vs CHW April 1. Yesterday's CIN-MIA was 2-0. Four converging edge scanner under trends with avg totals of 6.4 on a 7.0 line.
WIN 2ER +1.00u April 7, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Skenes Earned Runs Under vs Padres
Game total 6.0 (lowest on the board). Career 2.10 ERA in 57 starts, 4th best since 1920. ER under 17 of 25 games. Pivetta on other side also trending ER under 13 of 20. Classic pitchers' duel.
WIN 1ER +1.00u April 7, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Crochet Earned Runs Under vs Brewers
15 K in 11 IP, 31.9% K rate. Led MLB with 255 K in 2025. Misiorowski (18 K in 11 IP) on other side. Two elite K arms in a 6.5 total game. Edge scanner: 88.9% under rate.
WIN 2ER +1.00u April 7, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Heim Hits Under vs Angels
Hits under cashed 4 straight games at +4.80 units. TB under hit 4 straight too. H/R/RBI under and singles under all 4 straight. Every offensive category trending under. Ride the cold streak.
LOSS 1Hit -1.00u April 7, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Littell Under 3.5 Strikeouts vs Cardinals (+128)
Littell posted a 6.27 K/9 in 2025 with the lowest walk rate in MLB (4.2%). Had just 1 K in 5 IP in his 2026 debut vs PHI. Cardinals have 9th-lowest K rate in MLB. Plus money on a contact pitcher.
LOSS 6K -1.00u April 6, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Houser Under 3.5 Strikeouts vs Phillies (+108)
Classic sinkerball pitcher with a career 7.1 K/9. His 48.9% GB rate in 2025 ranked 79th percentile in MLB. Had 4 K in 5.1 IP in his Giants debut. Plus money on a contact-heavy sinker specialist.
WIN 3K +1.08u April 6, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Pallante Under 3.5 Strikeouts vs Nationals (-118)
MLB's #1 ground ball rate pitcher (67.4% in 2025) with a 15.5% K rate that ranked dead last among qualified starters. Had 3 K in 5 IP in his 2026 debut. The ultimate contact pitcher profile.
WIN 2K +1.00u April 6, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Castillo Over 5.5 Strikeouts vs Angels (-172)
Angels lead MLB with 99 K through 8 games, batting .192 as a team. Castillo put up 7 K in 6 IP in his debut vs NYY. Career 5-2, 2.84 ERA with 80 K in 11 starts vs LAA. Best K matchup on the board.
LOSS 4K -1.72u April 5, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Lauer Over 4.5 Strikeouts vs White Sox (-124)
9 K in 5.1 IP in his 2026 debut vs Oakland. White Sox have 2nd-most K in MLB (91), bat .212 with a .640 OPS. Four hitters with 9+ K already. The 4.5 line is too low for this matchup. CWS struck out 18 times in the first 2 games of this series.
LOSS 0K -1.24u April 5, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Burns Over 6.5 Strikeouts vs Rangers (-130)
No. 2 overall pick had 7 K in 5 scoreless IP in his 2026 debut, touching 99 mph with 15 whiffs on 78 pitches. Career 35.6% MLB K rate. College K rate: 17.19 K/9 at Wake Forest. Projected for 7.21 K today by ScoresAndOdds.
WIN 9K +1.00u April 5, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Fried Over 5.5 Strikeouts vs Marlins (-130)
0.00 ERA, 0.53 WHIP through 13.1 scoreless IP. Four-seam usage nearly doubled, generating 6 K on it with just 1 hit allowed. Went 7 IP on 90 pitches last start. Career-high 8.7 K/9 in 2025. Efficiency allows deep outings for more K chances. Rain delay worth monitoring.
LOSS 4K -1.30u April 5, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Hancock Over 5.5 Strikeouts vs Angels (+132)
Career-high 9 K in his 2026 debut (6 no-hit IP vs CLE). Retooled arsenal with a 52% whiff-rate sweeper. Angels strike out 28% vs RHP. Plus money on a pitcher with elite swing-and-miss stuff vs a K-prone lineup.
LOSS 5K -1.00u April 4, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Cease Over 7.5 Strikeouts vs White Sox (-110 est.)
12 K in his Toronto debut. Now faces his FORMER team, the White Sox, who own the worst K rate in baseball (35.9%). 94% over 5.5 K rate at home (15/16). .188 opponent AVG vs current CWS roster. Dream matchup.
LOSS 6K -1.10u April 3, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Woo Over 6.5 Strikeouts vs Angels (+113)
Already cashed O 6.5 K on March 28 (+106, 7K). 86% over 5.5 K at home (12/14). Angels carry a 30% K rate. L10 avg: 7.70 K. Plus money on a home ace against a lineup that can't make contact.
LOSS 6K -1.00u April 3, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Keller Under 5.5 Strikeouts vs Orioles (-125 est.)
82% under 5.5 K at home (14/17). Career avg 4.69 K with declining K rate each of last 3 seasons. Last start: 3 K in 6 IP. Contact-oriented Orioles lineup at pitcher-friendly PNC Park.
WIN 4K +1.00u April 3, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Ragans Over 6.5 Strikeouts vs Twins (-130)
5 career starts vs Minnesota, NEVER under 7 K: 9, 7, 8, 7, 11. Average 8.4 K vs the Twins. 78% over 6.5 K rate in 2024, 69% in 2025. The strongest matchup-specific signal in our database.
WIN 8K +1.00u April 2, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Nelson Under 4.5 Strikeouts vs Braves
67% under 4.5 K rate across 90 starts over 3 seasons (2023-2025). Career average 3.9 K per start. Nelson is a contact pitcher who simply does not miss bats. The massive sample makes this one of the most reliable unders on the board.
WIN 3K +1.00u April 2, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Bradley Under 3.5 Strikeouts vs Royals (+120)
Bradley recorded just 2 K in 7 full innings vs KC last April. The Royals have one of MLB's lowest K-rate lineups: Witt Jr 0.8, Perez 0.8, Pasquantino 0.7, Garcia 0.5 K/game. Plus money on the under against a lineup that puts the ball in play.
WIN 3K +1.20u April 2, 2026 · 1 Unit · Moderate Confidence
Peterson Under 4.5 Strikeouts vs Giants
4 K and 4 K in his two most recent starts vs San Francisco. L5 average down to 3.0 K, trending sharply downward. Peterson at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park against a team he has struggled to miss bats against recently.
LOSS 5K -1.15u April 2, 2026 · 1 Unit · Moderate Confidence
Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts vs Reds (EVEN)
7+ K in ALL 5 career starts vs CIN (7, 9, 9, 8, 7). 12.4 K/9 against the Reds with a 28-inning scoreless streak. CIN batting .194 with 10.4 K/game. At even money, the strongest signal our system has produced all season.
April 1, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Gausman Over 6.5 Strikeouts vs Rockies (-145)
11 K in his last start (franchise Opening Day record). Rockies are worst in MLB vs the splitter: .133 BA, 41.5% K rate. Colorado bats .203 on the road. Career 7.0 K avg in 9 appearances vs COL with 63 total strikeouts.
April 1, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Alcantara Over 5.5 Strikeouts vs White Sox (+124)
The 2022 Cy Young winner is back to full velocity (100 mph). White Sox have the worst K rate in baseball at 35.9%. Alcantara's final 8 starts of 2025: 8.7 K/9, 2.68 ERA. Prior start vs CHW: 8 K touching 99.9 mph. Plus money is a gift.
April 1, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Yamamoto Over 6.5 Strikeouts vs Guardians (-106)
Already cashed his O 5.5 K on March 26. Now faces Cleveland, 3rd-highest K rate in MLB (29.5%). Guardians batting .188 with a .574 OPS. World Series MVP's career 10.4 K/9 rate ranks 89th percentile. Fair price at -106.
April 1, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Bryan Woo Over 6.5 Strikeouts vs Guardians (+106)
The All-Star averaged 7.7 K over his last 10 starts and cleared 6.5 in 5 of his last 6 home outings. Props engine shows he's trending UP at T-Mobile Park. Full game log data and edge analysis.
March 28, 2026 · 1 Unit · Medium-High Confidence
Yamamoto Over 5.5 Strikeouts vs Diamondbacks (-142)
The World Series MVP cleared 5.5 K in 73% of starts in 2025. He averages 7.17 K per start against Arizona and punched out 7 in his final spring tuneup. Full matchup breakdown with charts and edge analysis.
March 26, 2026 · 1 Unit · High Confidence
Logan Webb Over 7+ Strikeouts vs Yankees (+140)
Our first prop of 2026. Career BvP data shows elevated K rates across the Yankees lineup. Jazz Chisholm whiffs 53.8% against Webb. Six lefty bats walk into Oracle Park. Full breakdown with matchup tables and EV analysis.
March 25, 2026 · 1 Unit · High ConfidenceResearch & Tools
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April 29, 2026 · 8 min read99 Strikeouts in 8 Games: Why the Angels Have Become MLB's Cleanest Pitcher-Prop Target
The Angels opened 2026 with 99 strikeouts in eight games, then carried the problem into late April with 241 strikeouts through 24 games. We break down why that makes Los Angeles one of the clearest opposing pitcher K matchups on the board.
April 22, 2026 · 9 min read
The Third Time Through the Order Penalty
New research analyzing how hitter OPS+ jumps from 91 to 117 the third time through the order and what that means for MLB prop betting markets.
March 14, 2026 · 16 min read
Why First Five +0.5 Run Line Bets Cost More Than Bettors Realize: 61,634 MLB Games Exposed the Truth
We analyzed every MLB game since 2000 and found that F5 +0.5 bets win over 60% of the time, yet still produce -16.9% ROI. The 14.67% tie rate is the most expensive insurance policy in baseball betting.
March 6, 2026 · 18 min read
MLB Teams to Fade in April: Home Favorites Have Covered Under 50% in All 17 Seasons Since 2008
We analyzed 3,982 MLB games and found home favorites cover the run line just 39.7% in April. The Marlins (24.6%), White Sox (31.8%), and Pirates (32.7%) are the worst offenders.
March 4, 2026 · 15 min read
When Game 1 Goes Under, Vegas Barely Adjusts: The Series Under-Correction Effect Across 8,771 MLB Series
We analyzed every MLB series since 2000 and found that when Game 1 finishes 4+ runs under the total, Game 2 goes under 54% of the time. Vegas only adjusts the line by 0.12 runs.
February 27, 2026 · 14 min read
Best Active MLB On-Base Streaks Entering 2026: Full Statcast Rankings
We scanned 356,031 Statcast game logs across 1,082 batters to find the 15 longest active reached base streaks heading into 2026. Betts, Ohtani, and Alvarez top the list at 39 straight.
February 20, 2026 · 8 min read
Do Home and Away Splits Impact MLB Player Props More Than You Think
A data driven study of venue based splits across hits, home runs, and stolen bases. Some prop markets are far more sensitive to location than others.
February 17, 2026 · 10 min read
Yankees Are 15-0 in Game 3 vs Mets at Yankee Stadium: The Most Absurd Subway Series Streak
We scanned 72 Subway Series games across 26 series and found the Mets have never won a Game 3 at Yankee Stadium since 2001.
February 19, 2026 · 8 min read
How Often Does a Run Score in the First Inning? We Analyzed 61,579 MLB Games to Find Out
We analyzed every MLB game since 2000 and found that a run scores in the first inning 51.44% of the time. Here's what that means for NRFI/YRFI bettors.
February 9, 2026 · 12 min read
Why Player Props Are Baseball's Most Beatable Market
Player props offer sharper edges than traditional sides and totals. Here's why the prop market remains inefficient and how smart bettors are exploiting it.
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Industry AnalysisGet Daily Props Picks
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