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Chicago Cubs

2026 Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Player Prop Analysis

NL Central
Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Updated: February 2026
#7 Dansby Swanson Chicago Cubs 2026
Dansby Swanson
Shortstop
24
HR (2025)
.244
AVG (2025)
.717
OPS (2025)
#27 Seiya Suzuki Chicago Cubs 2026
Seiya Suzuki
Right Field
32
HR (2025)
.245
AVG (2025)
.804
OPS (2025)
#2 Signed Alex Bregman Chicago Cubs 2026
Alex Bregman
Third Base
.273
AVG (2025)
18
HR (2025)
.821
OPS (2025)

Key Offseason Changes

The Cubs made the biggest splash of the offseason by signing Alex Bregman to a five-year, $175 million contract, the third-largest deal in franchise history. The two-time World Series champion brings Gold Glove defense and a championship pedigree to a Cubs team that reached the playoffs in 2025 but lacked postseason experience. The deal includes $70M in deferred money and a full no-trade clause.

The front office also acquired Edward Cabrera from the Marlins, trading top-50 prospect Owen Caissie for the high-upside arm. Cabrera's electric stuff could slot into the middle of the rotation if he harnesses his control. The bullpen underwent a complete overhaul with five key signings: Phil Maton (2yr/$14.5M), Hunter Harvey, Hoby Milner, Caleb Thielbar, and Jacob Webb. Manager Craig Counsell noted the relief corps "looks different the most" entering spring training.

Chicago also retained Shota Imanaga after his dominant rookie season and brought back Colin Rea as rotation depth. The major concern heading into 2026 is Justin Steele opening the season on the IL, with a return expected around June.

Projected Starting Lineup

Order Player Position Prop Notes
1 Nico Hoerner 2B Elite contact, 30+ SB potential
2 Seiya Suzuki RF Power breakout in 2025, 30 HR upside
3 Alex Bregman 3B $175M man, 3.5 WAR in 114 games 2025
4 Ian Happ LF Switch-hitter, 25+ HR power annually
5 Dansby Swanson SS Elite defense, bounce-back bat?
6 Michael Busch 1B LH power, breakout candidate
7 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF Elite glove, developing bat
8 Carson Kelly C Veteran presence, lineup anchor
9 Matt Shaw DH/UTIL Super-sub, strong 2025 second half

The addition of Bregman gives the Cubs four legitimate 25+ HR threats in the heart of the order. Seiya Suzuki broke out in 2025 with 30 homers, and Ian Happ continues to be a model of consistency. The key question is whether Dansby Swanson can bounce back offensively after a disappointing 2025 campaign. Matt Shaw moves into a super-utility role after his strong rookie showing, providing Craig Counsell with lineup flexibility.

Projected Starting Rotation

Slot Pitcher Throws Prop Notes
SP1 Shota Imanaga L Elite 2025 rookie, ace upside
SP2 Cade Horton R Top prospect, rib injury recovery
SP3 Matthew Boyd L 2025 All-Star, consistent performer
SP4 Edward Cabrera R Electric stuff, control question
SP5 Jameson Taillon R Veteran stability, innings eater

Shota Imanaga emerged as the ace after a brilliant 2025 rookie campaign, featuring a devastating changeup and pinpoint control. Cade Horton was tracking toward ace status before a rib injury ended his season early, making his health a critical spring storyline. Matthew Boyd's 2025 All-Star selection validated his resurgence, while Edward Cabrera brings upside but significant control risk. Justin Steele (IL) is expected back around June, potentially giving the Cubs a six-man rotation for the second half. Colin Rea provides valuable depth after logging 159.1 innings last year.

Bullpen & Closer Situation

Closer: The role appears to be up for grabs entering spring training. Phil Maton has closer experience and signed the largest deal ($14.5M/2yr), making him the frontrunner. Hunter Harvey's triple-digit velocity could also earn late-inning work. This is a situation to monitor closely during spring training.

Setup: Hunter Harvey brings power stuff as a potential high-leverage arm. Caleb Thielbar provides lefty specialist value, while Hoby Milner has previous experience with Craig Counsell in Milwaukee. Jacob Webb was excellent from 2023-25 with a 3.22 ERA across 169 games.

Development: Porter Hodge had a brilliant rookie 2024 (1.88 ERA, 9 saves) but struggled in 2025 with injuries. Spring training will determine if he can reclaim a prominent bullpen role. The Cubs also have Jordan Wicks and Daniel Palencia as swing options between the rotation and bullpen.

Prop Betting Angles

Alex Bregman Total Home Runs: Bregman hit 18 homers in just 114 games for Boston in 2025 due to a quad injury. A full healthy season at Wrigley Field, with its favorable winds, could push him toward 25-28 homers. The over has value if the number sits at 22.5 or lower.
Shota Imanaga Wins Total: As the staff ace on a team projected for 88+ wins, Imanaga should get ample run support with the improved lineup. His pinpoint control limits damage, and the Cubs should be motivated to extend his workload. Double-digit wins are highly likely.
Seiya Suzuki Total Home Runs: Suzuki's breakout 2025 (30 HR) may have shifted expectations, but he's now entering his age-31 season with a refined swing. If the number is set at 27.5, the over could be intriguing given the deeper lineup protection from Bregman and Happ.
Cade Horton Strikeouts: Horton's ceiling is elite, but the rib injury disrupted his development. If he returns fully healthy, 160+ strikeouts in 150+ innings is possible. However, the under may be safer until we see consistent spring training performance.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Stolen Bases: The elite defensive center fielder has plus speed and could be given the green light on the bases. If his OBP improves to .320+, 25-30 stolen bases are achievable. This is a sleeper prop to target.
Ian Happ RBIs: Batting cleanup with Bregman and Suzuki ahead of him, Happ is positioned for 90+ RBI if he stays healthy. His switch-hitting provides matchup-proof value, and the Cubs' improved lineup depth should create more runners on base.

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