2026 MLB Win Totals

New York Yankees

O/U 91.5 Wins

The Yankees finished 94-68 for the second consecutive season, good enough for second place in the AL East but ultimately a disappointment for a franchise that entered the year as defending American League champions. Aaron Judge delivered another MVP-caliber campaign, hitting .331 with 54 home runs across 679 plate appearances to claim his third career MVP award. The supporting cast showed flashes, particularly Trent Grisham's breakout year of 34 homers and an .812 OPS, but the rotation depth that carried them to the 2024 pennant simply was not there in 2025.

The postseason told the story of a team running on fumes. Toronto dispatched the Yankees in four games during the ALDS, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. absolutely torching New York pitching to the tune of a .529 average with three homers and nine RBIs in the series. The Blue Jays' young arms stifled a lineup that looked lost after Judge, and the organizational depth that seemed so promising in October 2024 had evaporated by October 2025. The pitching staff ranked 12th in the American League in ERA, a far cry from the dominant unit that nearly won it all the year before.

The front office chose continuity over a complete overhaul, which will either look brilliant or disastrous by September. Cody Bellinger re-signed after his solid first year in the Bronx, where he slashed .270/.334/.480 with 29 home runs for a 125 wRC+. Trent Grisham accepted the qualifying offer at $22.025 million, a calculated gamble that he can replicate or exceed his breakout numbers. Jazz Chisholm Jr. returns on a one-year, $10.2 million deal, giving them the versatility and athleticism they desperately need.

The rotation remains the biggest question mark. Max Fried anchors the staff alongside Luis Gil, but after that it gets murky fast. Paul Blackburn signed a modest one-year, $2 million contract, and Ryan Yarbrough adds veteran depth. The club acquired lefty Ryan Weathers from Miami and reliever Angel Chivilli from Colorado to shore up the bullpen. Most critically, they are waiting on Carlos Rodon to return from elbow surgery around late April, and Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt are working their way back from Tommy John surgery. Schmidt might not pitch at all in 2026 after undergoing surgery last July. This rotation could be elite by midseason or a complete disaster in April and May.

The 91.5 number feels about right, maybe even slightly high given the rotation uncertainty. The Yankees have the best player in baseball in Judge and enough offensive firepower to stay in games, but pitching wins championships and right now they are thin. The AL East will be a gauntlet with Toronto reloading, Baltimore finally spending, and Boston quietly building one of the best rotations in the league. If Cole and Rodon return healthy and effective, 95 wins is possible. If the injury recoveries hit snags, this team could easily stumble to 85-87 wins and miss the playoffs entirely.

The schedule does them no favors either. They play 76 games against divisional opponents, all of whom improved this winter. The early season stretch from late March through May, when Rodon and Cole are unavailable, could bury them before the cavalry arrives. This is a team built to peak in September, not survive April.

Baltimore Orioles

O/U 85.5 Wins

There is no sugarcoating it. The 2025 Orioles were a disaster. They finished 75-87, dead last in the AL East and 16 games worse than their 91-71 record from 2024. The season unraveled so quickly that manager Brandon Hyde was fired on May 17 with the team sitting at a brutal 15-28 record, just two years removed from winning AL Manager of the Year. Injuries devastated the roster, with 29 players spending time on the injured list throughout the campaign. Baltimore used 70 different players over the course of the season, tying the all-time record set by the 2024 Marlins.

The lone bright spot came in a September 6 home win against the defending champion Dodgers, a 4-3 victory where they somehow won despite being no-hit by Yoshinobu Yamamoto for eight and two-thirds innings. That game encapsulated the season: the young core showed flashes of brilliance while everything around them crumbled. Gunnar Henderson remained excellent, and Adley Rutschman proved he belongs among the game's elite catchers, but the supporting pieces simply were not there. The rotation was a mess, and the bullpen blew leads with alarming regularity.

David Rubenstein, in his second offseason as owner, apparently got tired of the cautious approach. Mike Elias has been extraordinarily aggressive this winter, headlined by the signing of five-time All-Star first baseman Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million contract. Alonso brings the kind of middle-of-the-order power this lineup desperately lacked in 2025, and at 31 years old he should have several prime seasons remaining.

The pitching got addressed too. Baltimore traded four prospects and a draft pick to Tampa Bay for Shane Baz, whom they control for three years. They signed closer Ryan Helsley to a two-year, $28 million deal to stabilize the ninth inning. Zach Eflin comes over on a one-year, $10 million pact with a mutual option for 2027, adding rotation depth that was sorely missing. Outfielder Taylor Ward arrived via trade from the Angels, with highly-regarded pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez going the other way. Leody Taveras signed for one year and $2.1 million to provide outfield depth. The rumor mill suggests they are not done either, with continued links to Framber Valdez and even Justin Verlander.

The 94.5 line is aggressive, representing a 19-win improvement from 2025. That sounds insane until you remember that this core went 91-71 just two years ago and added Pete Alonso, Shane Baz, Ryan Helsley, and Zach Eflin to a roster that was derailed primarily by injuries rather than lack of talent. If Henderson, Rutschman, Holliday, and the young position players stay healthy, the offensive foundation is elite. The question is whether Baz can anchor a rotation that includes Grayson Rodriguez traded away.

The division will be brutal, but Baltimore has the youngest core of any contender. They are projected to win the AL East at +165 odds for a reason. The new ownership has shown a willingness to spend, and the farm system can still supplement the big league roster with impact prospects. Everything broke wrong in 2025. If even half of it breaks right in 2026, this team wins 95 games.

Toronto Blue Jays

O/U 89.5 Wins

The Blue Jays finally put it all together. Their 94-68 record matched the Yankees but Toronto held the head-to-head tiebreaker at 8-5, giving them their first AL East title since 2015 and home-field advantage throughout the American League playoffs. The postseason run was nothing short of magical. They dismantled the Yankees in four games during the ALDS, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. delivering a performance for the ages: .529 average, three homers, nine RBIs, including the first postseason grand slam in franchise history. Rookie Trey Yesavage set a team record with 11 strikeouts over five and a third no-hit innings in one of those wins.

The ALCS against Seattle went the distance, but Toronto prevailed in seven games at home to punch their first World Series ticket since 1993. The championship round against the Dodgers was the cruelest possible ending, a seven-game loss that came down to the final out. The Blue Jays are still searching for their first title since back-to-back championships in 1992-93, but this run proved the window is wide open. Jeff Hoffman closing out the ALDS by striking out Cody Bellinger remains one of the signature moments of the 2025 postseason.

The front office wasted no time addressing the rotation, signing Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract, the largest free agent deal in franchise history. Cease replaces the departed Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer and immediately becomes the ace Toronto has been searching for since their core emerged. The Japanese market yielded another prize in Kazuma Okamoto, the 29-year-old power-hitting third baseman who signed for four years and $60 million with a $5 million signing bonus. Okamoto should see the bulk of playing time at third base and provides legitimate middle-of-the-order thump.

The bullpen got reinforcements too. Tyler Rogers signed a three-year, $37 million deal with a fourth-year vesting option, giving them another high-leverage arm. Cody Ponce, who dominated the Korean league with a 17-1 record and 1.89 ERA, adds rotation depth at three years and $30 million. The one significant departure was Bo Bichette, who signed with the Mets for three years and $126 million. His exit allows Andres Gimenez to slide to shortstop while Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement handle second base. The payroll has ballooned to a projected $310.5 million luxury tax number, over the maximum penalty threshold, but ownership is clearly all-in on this window.

The 88.5 line feels low for a team coming off a World Series appearance with this much talent returning. Guerrero is locked up long-term on a massive extension, Cease anchors a rotation that was already solid, and the addition of Okamoto replaces some of the offensive production lost with Bichette. The Jays have been aggressive enough that projections have them comfortably clearing 91 wins and competing for the division title again.

The concern is that 2025 represented their absolute ceiling and regression is inevitable. The rotation loses Bassitt and Scherzer's innings while betting heavily on Cease and the Korean import Ponce. Bichette was a homegrown star whose production will not be easy to replace internally. The division is deeper too, with Baltimore's resurgence and Boston's rotation upgrade making the AL East a four-team race. Still, this core has now proven it can win in October. The experience matters.

Boston Red Sox

O/U 87.5 Wins

The Red Sox finished 89-73 and returned to the postseason for the first time since 2021, clinching a Wild Card berth on September 26. The celebration was short-lived. The Yankees swept them in three games during the Wild Card round, exposing the offensive inconsistencies that plagued Boston all year. Manager Alex Cora squeezed every win possible out of a roster that was never quite good enough to compete for the division title, finishing third in the AL East behind Toronto and New York.

The most significant transaction of the season happened in June, when the Red Sox traded Rafael Devers to the Giants. The third baseman was the last remaining player from the 2018 World Series championship team, and his departure marked the definitive end of an era in Boston. The move cleared significant payroll and yielded prospects to restock a farm system that had been depleted by years of win-now trades. It also left a gaping hole in the middle of the lineup that was never adequately filled. The pitching staff kept them competitive, but the offense ranked just 19th in runs scored after the Devers trade.

Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow made a massive pivot after Alex Bregman chose the Cubs over returning to Boston. Rather than chase another big bat, he redirected the money into pitching, signing lefty Ranger Suarez to a five-year, $130 million contract on January 14. The deal contains no deferrals, opt-outs, or no-trade protection. Suarez declined the Phillies' qualifying offer of $22.025 million, meaning Boston forfeits draft picks and international bonus pool money, but the front office clearly believes he is worth the cost.

The Willson Contreras acquisition addresses first base. On December 21, the Red Sox traded Hunter Dobbins, Yhoiker Fajardo, and Blake Aita to the Cardinals for Contreras and $8 million to cover part of his remaining $41 million contract. Contreras provides a veteran bat with playoff experience and lineup protection for the young hitters developing around him. With Garrett Crochet returning as the undisputed ace after his second-place Cy Young finish, the rotation suddenly looks elite. Crochet, Suarez, and Sonny Gray form one of the best top-threes in baseball, followed by Brayan Bello. Starting pitching is unquestionably Boston's strength heading into 2026.

The 89.5 line reflects Boston's status as the forgotten team in the AL East conversation. Everyone is talking about Toronto's World Series run, Baltimore's spending spree, and the Yankees' injury questions. The Red Sox quietly built what might be the best rotation in the American League and added a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat in Contreras. They should not be overlooked.

The concern remains the offense. Losing Devers removed their most consistent run producer, and while Contreras helps, the lineup still lacks a true star position player. The farm system is producing, but are those prospects ready to contribute immediately? The defense is also a question mark with Contreras at first base, a position he has limited experience at. Still, in a sport where pitching is king, having Crochet-Suarez-Gray at the top of your rotation can paper over a lot of offensive deficiencies. Expect Boston to be in the Wild Card hunt all season.

Tampa Bay Rays

O/U 78.5 Wins

The Rays finished 73-76, their first losing season since 2016 and a stark departure from nearly a decade of doing more with less. They placed fourth in the AL East and were mathematically eliminated from playoff contention in mid-September. The pitching development machine that had been so reliable for so long finally showed cracks. Shane Baz showed flashes but was inconsistent, and the rotation depth that typically characterizes Tampa Bay teams simply was not there.

Junior Caminero's emergence provided a genuine silver lining. The young infielder announced himself as a future star and gives the organization a cornerstone to build around. Manager Kevin Cash remained in place despite the losing record, a testament to ownership's belief that the process is sound even when the results falter. The roster was thin on impact bats all year, and the bullpen, usually a strength, blew too many leads down the stretch. This felt like a reset year, and the front office treated it as such by selling at the trade deadline rather than buying.

The Rays operated in typical Rays fashion: modest spending, creative trades, and a focus on organizational depth rather than splashy acquisitions. The biggest move was a three-team trade with Cincinnati and the Angels that sent Josh Lowe to Los Angeles while bringing back Gavin Lux and righty Chris Clark. Brandon Lowe went to Pittsburgh for more prospects, and Shane Baz was shipped to Baltimore for a package of young talent. The pattern is clear: Tampa Bay is stockpiling assets for the next contention window rather than trying to compete now.

The free agent signings were low-cost gambles. Cedric Mullins comes over on a one-year deal to provide outfield depth and potential trade value at midseason. Steven Matz and Jake Fraley round out the additions at a combined $25 million for depth purposes. Forrest Whitley joined the 40-man roster after dominating Triple-A with a 2.60 ERA and 66 strikeouts in 55 and a third innings. The rotation mix includes Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan returning from injury, Matz, Joe Boyle, and Yoendrys Gomez. There is talent here, but it is young, unproven, and coming off injuries across the board.

The 75.5 line acknowledges that this is a rebuilding year. The Rays traded away established talent and are betting on internal development to replenish the roster. At +5000 to win the World Series, the market views them as one of the weakest teams in the American League. That assessment is probably accurate. The division is brutal, with four teams that should all win between 88-95 games, making every Rays loss to divisional opponents feel magnified.

There is always the possibility that Tampa Bay finds something. They have a track record of turning bargain-bin pickups into valuable contributors and developing pitching out of thin air. McClanahan's return from injury could give them a legitimate ace, and Caminero is a potential MVP-caliber player within the next few years. But this feels like a year where the Rays lose 85-87 games, collect draft picks, and set up for a 2027-2028 contention cycle. The under is the play, but only barely, because betting against this organization has burned sharps for years.

Detroit Tigers

O/U 85.5 Wins

The Tigers finished 87-75 and clinched a playoff berth for the second consecutive year on September 27 with a victory over Boston. They edged out Houston for the final Wild Card spot via head-to-head tiebreaker after both teams finished with identical records. Manager A.J. Hinch has built something real in Detroit, and Tarik Skubal's back-to-back Cy Young Award performances have given the franchise a genuine ace around whom to build. The rotation depth that seemed like a question mark in April became a strength by October after deadline acquisitions of Chris Paddack, Kyle Finnegan, Paul Sewald, and Charlie Morton.

The ALDS against Seattle was a grinder. Down 2-1 and trailing through four innings of Game 4, the Tigers' season appeared over. Instead, Riley Greene launched his first career postseason homer to ignite a four-run sixth inning that became the highest-scoring postseason game in Tigers history since the 1968 World Series. They forced a decisive Game 5 with a 9-3 win, handing the ball to Skubal in a winner-take-all situation for the second straight year. The Mariners ultimately prevailed, but Detroit showed the fight of a team that believes it belongs.

The front office focused on bullpen stability and maintaining the roster rather than chasing splashy additions. Kenley Jansen brings closer experience on a one-year, $9 million deal with a club option for 2027. Kyle Finnegan re-signed for two years and $16.75 million with a mutual option, ensuring the high-leverage relief depth that served them well down the stretch remains intact. Drew Anderson adds rotation depth at one year and $7 million. Gleyber Torres accepted the qualifying offer at $22.025 million, giving them a capable everyday second baseman on what amounts to a one-year audition.

The departures were modest but notable. Jason Foley, Tanner Rainey, and Tyler Mattison were non-tendered and signed elsewhere. Andy Ibanez left for the Dodgers. The bigger story hanging over everything is Tarik Skubal's impending free agency. Trade rumors swirled all offseason, but as spring training approaches, the back-to-back Cy Young winner remains in Detroit. Whether that changes before July depends on how the season unfolds and whether ownership is willing to commit to an extension that would likely exceed $200 million.

The 86.5 line feels slightly low for a team that won 87 games last year and returns essentially the same roster. Detroit is the betting favorite to win the AL Central at +150 odds, and the implied 40 percent probability reflects their status as the division's clear best team. Skubal alone is worth five to seven wins above a replacement-level pitcher, and the offensive core of Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene continues to develop. The Central remains the weakest division in baseball, which means Detroit could finish with 88 wins and cruise to a division title.

The risk is that this team has a relatively thin margin for error. If Skubal gets injured or traded, the entire season could unravel quickly. The offense still needs Torkelson to take the next step, and the lineup lacks a true star position player who can carry them through slumps. But in this division, being the best of a mediocre group is enough. The Tigers should win the Central and host a Wild Card series at minimum.

Cleveland Guardians

O/U 80.5 Wins

Back-to-back AL Central titles meant nothing when the Tigers swept the Guardians in the Wild Card Series. It was a crushing end to a season that saw Cleveland do what Cleveland always does: pitch well, play elite defense, and struggle mightily to score runs. The pitching staff posted a 3.70 ERA, fourth-best in the American League, with Tanner Bibee and emerging arms carrying the load. But the offense ranked 28th in baseball in runs scored and hit just 168 home runs, 20th in the league. You cannot win in October when you cannot score.

Jose Ramirez remained the heart and soul of the franchise, leading the team in home runs, RBIs, and batting average because nobody else was capable of stepping up. The supporting cast simply did not produce. The lack of offensive depth that has plagued Cleveland for years finally caught up with them against a Tigers team that had no interest in being swept. The 2-1 series loss to Detroit felt less like an upset and more like an inevitability for a lineup that ran out of gas against good pitching.

Fans hoping for a major offensive addition were left disappointed. The front office went bargain hunting for bullpen arms, signing Shawn Armstrong, Connor Brogdon, and Colin Holderman on one-year deals. Armstrong is coming off a 2.31 ERA with Texas and should slot into the late-inning mix. Austin Hedges re-signed as the backup catcher. That is essentially the extent of the additions. Cleveland's payroll philosophy has not changed: develop pitching, play defense, and hope the young bats figure it out.

The biggest news was Jose Ramirez's contract extension, locking him in for the rest of his career. President of Baseball Operations Chris Antonetti made clear at the press conference that the organization is leaning into its prospects rather than pursuing expensive free agents. Travis Bazzana, the first overall pick in the 2024 draft, will make his first major league spring training appearance. Chase DeLauter, the organization's top outfield prospect ranked 58th overall by MLB.com, debuted in the Wild Card Series and figures to play a larger role in 2026. The plan is homegrown talent. The question is whether that talent is ready now.

The 80.5 line represents significant expected regression from back-to-back division titles, and the market might be right. Cleveland's Pythagorean record suggested they overperformed their run differential in 2025, and without major offensive additions, there is no reason to expect the lineup to suddenly start producing. The Tigers improved and are now clearly the class of the division. Kansas City added pieces. Even the rebuilding White Sox signed Munetaka Murakami. Cleveland stood pat and hoped the kids would fix everything.

The pitching will keep them competitive, and Ramirez is still a top-ten player in baseball. But this feels like a team that finishes third in the Central with somewhere between 78-82 wins. The division is bad enough that the Wild Card remains mathematically possible, but the Tigers and Royals both project ahead of them. At +2700 to win the World Series, Cleveland is a long shot for good reason.

Kansas City Royals

O/U 81.5 Wins

After their surprising 2024 playoff run where they swept Baltimore in the Wild Card Series before losing to the Yankees in the Division Series, the Royals took a step backward in 2025. Their 82-80 record was good enough for third place in the AL Central but not good enough for October baseball. The offense that sparked their 2024 success simply did not show up consistently. The team posted a 93 wRC+, meaning they were seven percent worse than league average at the plate. Beyond Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia's breakout year, the lineup produced nothing.

Salvador Perez hit 30 home runs and drove in 100 for the third time in five years, but his .236 average was the second-lowest of his 15-year career. Jonathan India struggled mightily in his first season after arriving from Cincinnati, slashing a disappointing .233/.323/.346 across 136 games. The rotation held its own, and the bullpen remained solid, but you cannot compete for a playoff spot when the offense disappears for weeks at a time. The Royals scored 20 runs against Toronto on September 19, but those explosions were rare islands in an ocean of offensive futility.

General manager J.J. Picollo acknowledged the offensive struggles but opted for modest additions rather than significant spending. Lane Thomas signed for $5.5 million on a reclamation deal, providing outfield depth and potential trade value at the deadline. The club swapped lefty reliever Angel Zerpa to Milwaukee for outfielder Isaac Collins and reliever Nick Mears. These moves raised the floor in the outfield, but it remains one of the weaker groups in baseball on paper.

The front office's optimism centers on internal improvement rather than external additions. Picollo expressed confidence that Jonathan India will bounce back from his poor 2025 campaign, and the organization believes several young players are ready to contribute. The 2026 international signing class includes highly-rated outfield prospect Angeibel Gomez, ranked sixth on Baseball America's bonus board. But those are future investments, not present-day solutions. The Royals are banking on the same core that disappointed in 2025 to figure it out in 2026.

The 81.5 line is essentially a pick-em, and for good reason. Kansas City is a league-average team in a below-average division. Bobby Witt Jr. is a superstar who can carry them to stretches of dominance, but he cannot pitch and he cannot play every position. The margin between 85 wins and 78 wins is razor thin for this roster. If India bounces back and Perez finds his bat, they could sneak into the Wild Card race. If the offense continues to sputter, they could easily finish under .500.

The division dynamics favor a team that can simply be competent. The Tigers are the clear favorites, Cleveland regressed, the Twins are rebuilding, and the White Sox are still years away. Kansas City needs to beat the teams it should beat and stay healthy. That sounds simple, but it eluded them in 2025. At +4000 for the World Series, they are a long shot that requires too many things to go right simultaneously.

Minnesota Twins

O/U 73.5 Wins

The Twins' 70-92 record represented a 12-win regression from 2024 and a complete organizational reset. The trade deadline fire sale was brutal: Willi Castro, Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Louis Varland, and most shockingly, Carlos Correa, who waived his no-trade clause to return to Houston. In total, 11 players left the 40-man roster at the deadline. This was a team that broke a playoff losing streak in 2023 and finished 82-80 in 2024. Now they are rebuilding from scratch.

The season had its moments. On July 12, Byron Buxton hit for the first cycle in Target Field history during a game that also featured a Buxton bobblehead giveaway to fans. That sentence encapsulates the Twins' year: a flash of individual brilliance surrounded by institutional chaos. The road record of 32-49 was particularly ugly, a .395 winning percentage that suggested a team completely incapable of competing away from home. The front office saw the writing on the wall early and made the painful but necessary decision to strip the roster to the studs.

The rebuild continued with low-cost additions designed to fill roster spots rather than contend. Josh Bell signed a one-year deal with a mutual option to provide first base depth. Victor Caratini comes over on a two-year contract as the everyday catcher. Taylor Rogers returns to provide veteran bullpen presence. None of these moves signal any intention to compete in 2026. This is a team focused on 2027 and beyond.

The payroll has cratered to around $108 million, nearly $30 million less than last year and far below the $130-160 million range they operated in from 2022-2025. The rotation has Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober locked in, with Simeon Woods Richardson out of minor league options and fighting for a spot. The international signing class on January 15 added several intriguing prospects, but those are long-term plays. Minnesota's current major league roster is not built to win more than 72-75 games, and everyone in the organization knows it.

The 71.5 line reflects the market's belief that this is a bad team that will lose a lot of games. That assessment is accurate. The Twins traded their best players, cut payroll dramatically, and are openly focused on the future rather than the present. Byron Buxton remains fascinating when healthy, but he is never healthy for a full season. The rotation is actually decent, but the offense and bullpen will be young and mistake-prone.

Minnesota enters the season at +8000 to win the World Series, 22nd out of 30 teams. The division offers little opportunity for accidental success; even the cellar-dwelling White Sox have more intrigue with Munetaka Murakami. This is a team that will play hard and develop young talent but ultimately lose 90-plus games. The under is the play, though it would not shock anyone if the pitching kept them closer to .500 than expected.

Chicago White Sox

O/U 67.5 Wins

After setting the all-time record for losses in 2024 with their catastrophic 41-121 campaign, the White Sox managed to avoid utter disaster in 2025. Their 60-102 record represented a 19-win improvement, which is genuinely significant even if the result was still the second-worst record in baseball. The team played at a .441 pace in the second half, showing signs of life that had been completely absent the year before. Manager Will Venable, hired from Texas before the season, brought a level of professionalism that had been missing during the nightmare years.

The season finale captured the strange optimism surrounding this rebuild: an 8-0 win at Washington that featured three home runs and Shane Smith chasing a perfect game through five and a third innings. Small victories matter when you have been through what Chicago endured. The franchise opened the past three seasons among the 48 worst starts in MLB history, and the multi-year stretch from 2023-2025 ranks as the 11th-worst era in major league history. But at some point, the bottom has to stop falling out. The 2025 season at least suggested they found the floor.

For the first time in years, the White Sox acted like a team trying to improve rather than a team simply existing. Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami signed a two-year, $34 million deal, bringing his NPB record of 246 home runs and .270/.394/.557 career slash line to the South Side. In 2022, Murakami hit 56 homers in 141 games, breaking the record for most home runs by a Japanese-born player in an NPB season. He slots in at first base and immediately becomes the most intriguing bat on the roster.

The bullpen got significant reinforcements. Seranthony Dominguez signed for two years and $20 million. Anthony Kay, who posted a 1.74 ERA with 130 strikeouts in 155 innings for Yokohama in 2025, adds rotation depth at two years and $12 million with a club option. The Luis Robert trade sent the talented but frustrating outfielder to the Mets for infielder Luisangel Acuna and righty Truman Pauley. Former top prospects Everson Pereira and Jarred Kelenic were added on minor league deals. The payroll jumped to a projected $84 million, finally out of the league's basement. This is not a contending roster, but it is a roster with actual major league players.

The 65.5 line expects another six-win improvement, which would put them around 66 wins after their 60-win 2025 campaign. That feels reasonable given the additions but still ranks them second-worst in baseball ahead of only Colorado's 54.5 line. The White Sox at +50000 to win the World Series tells you everything about how the market views this team: interesting young pieces surrounded by major question marks everywhere else.

Murakami is the wildcard. If his power translates to MLB pitching, the lineup suddenly has a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat for the first time since before the collapse. Colson Montgomery at shortstop, Miguel Vargas at third, and the young arms in the rotation could all take steps forward. This is a team building toward 2027-2028 rather than 2026, but the building blocks are finally visible. The over is a reasonable gamble if you believe Murakami's bat plays and the young core develops on schedule.

Seattle Mariners

O/U 89.5 Wins

The Mariners won the AL West for the first time since 2001, a 24-year drought that felt like it would never end. Their 90-72 record was built on the foundation that made Seattle dangerous all year: elite pitching and Cal Raleigh's historic power surge. Raleigh finished with 60 home runs, obliterating Ken Griffey Jr.'s franchise record and setting MLB marks for most home runs by a catcher and most by a switch hitter in a single season. He won the Home Run Derby, the Silver Slugger Award, and finished as runner-up for MVP. When your catcher is hitting like prime Barry Bonds, good things happen.

The postseason validated the regular season success. Seattle dispatched Detroit in a tense five-game ALDS before falling to Toronto in seven games in the ALCS. Bryan Woo led the staff with 15 wins, a 2.94 ERA, and 198 strikeouts. Luis Castillo closed the year on fire with a 1.07 ERA in his final four starts. Andres Munoz locked down 38 saves. The pitching was elite. The offense was Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, and not much else. But sometimes that is enough when your arms are this good.

The Mariners recognized their lineup deficiency and moved quickly to address it. Josh Naylor signed for five years and $92.5 million, bringing a career .257 average and genuine middle-of-the-order thump to a team that desperately needed another real hitter. Naylor gives them a legitimate cleanup presence alongside Raleigh and allows manager Dan Wilson to construct a lineup that does not rely solely on the catcher to carry the offense.

The pitching depth got bolstered with smaller moves. Jose Ferrer arrived from Washington in a deal that sent catching prospect Harry Ford the other direction. Reliever Yosver Zulueta came over from Cincinnati. Andrew Knizner provides backup catching insurance. The payroll projects to around $157 million, a significant investment for a franchise that historically operates more modestly. The front office clearly believes this window is open and is spending accordingly. They have been linked to Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner as a potential trade target to add infield help, suggesting they may not be done.

The 89.5 line ties Seattle with Atlanta and Philadelphia for fourth-best in baseball, a testament to how seriously the market takes this roster. The Mariners are +1300 to win the World Series, reflecting real championship equity. The division should be easier than last year with Houston losing Bregman and Tucker. The rotation is legitimate. The bullpen is elite. And now the lineup has actual depth beyond Raleigh and hope.

The question is whether Julio Rodriguez can stay healthy and productive. He showed flashes of superstardom in 2025 but also struggled with consistency. If Rodriguez and Raleigh both perform at star levels while the pitching staff maintains its excellence, this team could win 95 games. If Rodriguez sputters and Raleigh regresses from his historic campaign, 85 wins becomes the ceiling. The Naylor addition lowers the variance significantly by providing a third consistent bat in the lineup.

Houston Astros

O/U 86.5 Wins

The dynasty is over. Houston finished 87-75 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016, ending a run of eight consecutive postseason appearances that included four pennants and two World Series titles. The Astros peaked in June at 19-7 but collapsed in August at 13-15 and never recovered. Their 25-27 record against AL West opponents tells the story of a team that could no longer bully the division the way it had for nearly a decade. Seattle and the rest of the West finally caught up.

The pitching staff was ravaged by Tommy John surgery: Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski, and Brandon Walter all went under the knife. The rotation that once featured Verlander, Valdez, and a parade of All-Stars suddenly looked ordinary. Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve remained productive, but the supporting cast was thin. The Astros' Pythagorean expectation based on run differential suggested they were more of an 83-win team than an 87-win team, meaning they got lucky just to reach the record they did. The vibes in Houston are not good.

The star exodus was brutal. Alex Bregman signed with the Cubs. Kyle Tucker became the latest superstar to join the Dodgers dynasty. Framber Valdez departed via free agency and will not be returning to Houston. In one offseason, the Astros lost their third baseman, their best outfielder, and their most reliable starting pitcher. The competitive window has not just closed; it has been slammed shut and locked.

The front office pivoted to international pitching to fill the rotation void. Japanese star Tatsuya Imai signed for three years and $54 million with incentives. The 27-year-old was a three-time NPB All-Star with sub-3.00 ERAs and elite strikeout rates in recent seasons, representing the top Japanese pitcher available this winter. Ryan Weiss adds depth from the KBO at one year and $2.6 million. The Astros acquired Mike Burrows from Pittsburgh and traded Mauricio Dubon to Atlanta for Nick Allen. Hunter Brown now anchors a rotation that includes Cristian Javier, Spencer Arrighetti, Lance McCullers Jr., and the new additions. It is a massive step down from the staff that dominated the American League for years.

The market sets Houston at 84.5 wins and +160 to win the division, a far cry from the years when they were prohibitive favorites to run away with the AL West. This feels accurate. Alvarez is still elite, and Altuve remains productive in his late thirties, but the depth that characterized the dynasty years has evaporated. The rotation is a collection of question marks betting heavily on Imai's transition from NPB.

The Astros will be competitive because the organizational culture remains strong and the core understands how to win. But this is not the team that won 100-plus games for four consecutive seasons. The Mariners are better. The Rangers are deeper. Texas and Seattle can both finish ahead of Houston in 2026. An 83-85 win season with a Wild Card miss feels like the most likely outcome, representing a franchise in transition rather than contention.

Texas Rangers

O/U 82.5 Wins

The Rangers finished exactly .500 at 81-81, an improvement over their 78-84 campaign the year before but still a disappointment for a franchise that won the 2023 World Series. The season fell apart down the stretch when they lost 11 of their final 13 games to end exactly at the break-even mark. The pitching staff posted a league-best 3.47 ERA, with Jacob deGrom leading the team in wins and strikeouts while Nathan Eovaldi paced the rotation in ERA. The arms were not the problem.

The offense was maddeningly inconsistent. Corey Seager led the team in batting average, Wyatt Langford paced them in home runs, and Adolis Garcia drove in the most runs, but the lineup never clicked for extended stretches. The 2025 season marked the end of Bruce Bochy's managerial tenure in Texas, with Skip Schumaker taking over for the 2026 campaign. The roster turnover has been significant, and the new manager inherits a team that could go in multiple directions.

The Rangers made two significant trades that reshape the roster. Brandon Nimmo arrived from the Mets in exchange for Marcus Semien, swapping three years of the veteran second baseman for five years of the outfielder at a lower annual cost. Texas is committed to Nimmo through 2030, adding a left-handed bat with a career .377 OBP who should thrive in the new hitter-friendly Globe Life Field. MacKenzie Gore came over from Washington in a five-for-one deal that cost the Rangers their 2025 first-round pick Gavin Fien plus four other prospects. Gore gives them a legitimate lefty starter to pair with deGrom when healthy.

The free agent additions were targeted and modest. Danny Jansen replaces Jonah Heim behind the plate after the World Series hero was non-tendered. Chris Martin, Alexis Diaz, and Tyler Alexander shore up the bullpen. Austin Gomber signed a minor league deal with a spring training invitation. The payroll projects to around $176 million, roughly $40 million less than the $216 million they opened 2025 with. This is a team trying to remain competitive while scaling back costs, a difficult balancing act that often leads to middling outcomes.

The 82.5 line feels about right for a roster in transition. The pitching depth is legitimately strong, with deGrom, Gore, Eovaldi, and the returning arms giving Texas one of the better rotations in baseball when healthy. The question is always deGrom's health after his history of arm issues, and Gore is coming off an inconsistent 2025 in Washington. If both pitch to their ceilings, this team could surprise.

The offensive questions remain. Semien was their best everyday hitter, and Nimmo's game does not translate the same way. Seager needs to carry more of the load. Langford needs to take another step forward. At +4000 to win the World Series, the Rangers are a fringe contender in a division where Seattle is the clear favorite and Houston is in decline. An 80-84 win season with a playoff miss seems most likely, but the pitching gives them a puncher's chance to exceed expectations.

Los Angeles Angels

O/U 71.5 Wins

The Angels' 72-90 record extended their franchise-record losing season streak to ten consecutive years. The last time this organization had a winning record was 2015. Mike Trout remains on the roster despite being a shell of his former self due to injuries. The 2025 season saw Ron Washington take a leave of absence midway through, with the team going 36-38 before his departure and 36-52 after. It was another year of wasted talent and organizational dysfunction in Anaheim.

The team stats tell the story of imbalance. The Angels ranked fourth in baseball with 226 home runs, proving they could hit the ball out of the park. But their 4.89 ERA ranked 28th in the majors, meaning every offensive explosion was matched by a pitching implosion. The 33-48 road record at a .407 winning percentage was particularly brutal. This is a franchise that has forgotten how to develop pitching, play defense, and win games consistently. The rebuild that should have started years ago continues to be delayed.

The Angels made a bold gamble by trading Taylor Ward to Baltimore for Grayson Rodriguez, the former top pitching prospect who missed all of 2025 recovering from arm issues. GM Perry Minasian acknowledges the risk but believes Rodriguez will be healthy for spring training and can anchor the rotation going forward. If Rodriguez returns to form, this trade looks genius. If his arm problems persist, the Angels gave up their best outfielder for damaged goods.

A three-team trade brought Josh Lowe from Tampa Bay, giving the Angels a young outfielder with controllable years and upside. Kirby Yates signed to stabilize the bullpen. Alek Manoah took a minor league deal at $1.95 million, hoping to rebuild his career after flaming out in Toronto. The Anthony Rendon buyout finally ended that disaster, though he will still collect $38 million over the next several years for doing nothing. The rotation projects as Yusei Kikuchi, Jose Soriano, Rodriguez, Reid Detmers, and a collection of young arms fighting for the fifth spot. It could be decent if Rodriguez is healthy. It could be a disaster if he is not.

The 71.5 line places the Angels among the worst teams in baseball, and that assessment is difficult to argue against. At +25000 to win the World Series and +2500 to win the division, the market sees this as a lottery ticket rather than a legitimate contender. The Rodriguez gamble is the entire story of this team. If he pitches 180 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA, the Angels could surprise and push toward .500. If he struggles or gets hurt again, they are looking at another 70-win season.

Trout at this point is more symbol than substance, a reminder of what this franchise wasted during his prime years. Nolan Schanuel has shown promise at first base. The young pitching has potential. But potential has been the Angels' calling card for a decade now, and it has never translated to wins. This feels like another year where they lose 88-90 games and talk about how promising the future looks. The over is a gamble on Rodriguez and not much else.

Athletics

O/U 75.5 Wins

The Athletics finished 76-86 in their first season playing in West Sacramento at Sutter Health Park, a minor league facility they share with the Triple-A River Cats. The improvement from their 69-93 disaster in 2024 was modest but real, though it still left them fourth in the AL West and five years removed from their last playoff appearance. This franchise is in limbo, playing temporary home games in a minor league stadium while waiting for their eventual move to Las Vegas. The on-field product reflects that institutional instability.

The stadium environment was actually an asset for the offense. Sutter Health Park played as hitter-friendly, and the young position players showed signs of development. The pitching remained a disaster, ranking near the bottom of the league in most categories. But for a franchise that has stripped the roster to the studs and operates on a shoestring budget, avoiding 90 losses counts as progress. The bar in Sacramento is on the floor, and the Athletics at least managed to step over it.

The biggest news was the Tyler Soderstrom extension, the largest contract in franchise history. The young catcher and first baseman got a deal that starts with a $3 million signing bonus and $1 million salary in 2026 before escalating to $19 million by the final year. The Athletics are betting big on Soderstrom as a cornerstone piece for the Las Vegas era, and locking him up now prevents him from hitting free agency during the prime years.

The rest of the offseason was bargain hunting. Jose Leclerc signed for one year and $10 million to provide late-inning bullpen help. Mark Leiter Jr. adds veteran relief depth. The trade for Jeffrey Springs and Jacob Lopez from Tampa Bay cost Joe Boyle and several prospects but gives them rotation options. Gio Urshela signed a one-year deal for infield depth. These are the moves of a team operating with limited resources and trying to field a competitive roster without actually spending money. The payroll remains among the lowest in baseball.

The 70.5 line reflects the market's view that this is a bottom-tier team with limited upside. The A's are not trying to contend in 2026; they are trying to develop talent for the Las Vegas move and avoid complete irrelevance in the meantime. At their current trajectory, they are several years away from being a factor in the division race. The Soderstrom extension is a long-term play, not a win-now move.

There is actually modest value on the over if you believe the young players will continue developing and the pitching additions provide stability. The 76 wins from 2025 were earned with essentially the same core, and another year of experience could push them to 73-76 wins. But this is a team playing in a minor league stadium with a minor league payroll. The organization's focus is on 2028 and beyond, not 2026. Betting the over requires believing in progress that the ownership has shown no interest in funding.

Philadelphia Phillies

O/U 91.5 Wins

The Phillies remain the class of the NL East, and the 2025 season provided plenty of evidence why this organization has become a perennial contender. Finishing 96-66 and clinching their second consecutive division crown, Philadelphia proved that the 2024 playoff success was no fluke. The offense ranked among the league's best once again, led by Kyle Schwarber's NL MVP runner-up campaign where he launched 47 home runs while posting a .283/.398/.592 slash line with a 156 OPS+. Bryce Harper remained excellent in his age-32 season, contributing 5.2 fWAR while Trea Turner finally looked healthy after his hamstring issues the previous year.

The pitching staff proved remarkably durable for most of the season, with Zack Wheeler posting another ace-caliber campaign before his September shoulder troubles. Aaron Nola continued his workhorse ways, logging 200 innings with a 3.54 ERA and 107 ERA+. The run differential of plus-148 backed up the record, suggesting this was a legitimately dominant team rather than a club that caught some breaks. Philadelphia outscored opponents by nearly one run per game, anchored by a bullpen that posted a collective 3.31 ERA.

The biggest news this winter was keeping the band together. Kyle Schwarber re-signed on a five-year, $150 million deal that feels both massive and justified given his production. At 33, Schwarber should remain productive through at least the first half of that contract, and the Phillies prioritized retaining their clubhouse leader. J.T. Realmuto also came back on a three-year, $45 million pact, keeping the premium defensive catcher in red pinstripes through his age-37 season. The Adolis Garcia signing on a one-year, $10 million prove-it deal adds outfield depth and potentially another 25-homer bat.

The departure of Harrison Bader to the Giants and the 80-game suspension handed to Max Kepler following a positive PED test creates outfield uncertainty. Matt Strahm going to Kansas City subtracts a reliable lefty arm from the bullpen. Most concerning is the health of Zack Wheeler, who underwent thoracic outlet surgery in late September. His return timeline remains murky, though recent reports indicate he has progressed to throwing from 90 feet. If Wheeler misses extended time, the rotation depth becomes a genuine concern.

The 93.5 number feels appropriately set for a team that just won 96 games but faces some legitimate questions. Wheeler's health looms as the elephant in the room, as the Phillies need their ace to function as such for this rotation to maintain its elite status. Without him, the gap between Philadelphia and the surging Mets narrows considerably. The betting market recognizes this uncertainty while also respecting the organizational infrastructure that has produced back-to-back 90-plus win seasons.

I lean slightly toward the UNDER here, though not with tremendous conviction. The NL East arms race has intensified significantly, with the Mets adding Bo Bichette, Luis Robert Jr., and Freddy Peralta while the Braves should be healthier. A 93-win season would still represent excellence, but matching or exceeding last year's total without a healthy Wheeler for the first two months feels optimistic. The Phillies remain the division favorite, but expecting another 96-win campaign might be asking too much.

New York Mets

O/U 89.5 Wins

The 2025 Mets represent one of the more frustrating outcomes in recent memory given the expectations entering the year. After the Juan Soto mega-signing, New York expected to contend for a championship. Instead, they finished 83-79 and missed the playoffs entirely, watching the Reds clinch the final Wild Card spot on the season's final day. The Marlins even eliminated them from contention with a late September victory, adding insult to injury. It marked the third time in franchise history Miami ended New York's playoff hopes on the final day.

The offensive core performed adequately, with Soto putting together another excellent campaign and Francisco Lindor remaining one of baseball's premier shortstops. However, the rotation depth never materialized as expected, and the bullpen suffered multiple meltdowns in crucial situations. A plus-27 run differential over 162 games suggested this was an 85-77 true talent team at best, and even that feels generous given how they collapsed in September. Pete Alonso departed in free agency, signing with the Orioles, while Edwin Diaz headed to Los Angeles to close for the Dodgers.

Steve Cohen opened the checkbook once again, and the January spending spree completely transformed this roster's outlook. Bo Bichette signed a three-year, $126 million deal that includes player options, reuniting him with his former Blue Jays manager in Queens. On January 20th, the Mets acquired Luis Robert Jr. from the White Sox for Luisangel Acuna and prospect Truman Pauley, immediately upgrading center field with a legitimate five-tool talent when healthy. The following day brought Freddy Peralta via trade from Milwaukee, costing prospect Jett Williams and pitcher Brandon Sproat.

The aggregate talent added rivals any offseason haul in recent memory. Luke Weaver returned on a two-year, $22 million deal to stabilize the bullpen, and the Mets continue pursuing rotation help with names like Framber Valdez and Zac Gallen mentioned as possibilities. The $64 million in new annual commitments from just the Robert trade and Bichette signing over a five-day span demonstrates ownership's willingness to spend when opportunities arise. This is a fundamentally different roster than the one that limped to 83 wins.

The 89.5 number feels almost conservative given the talent injection, though the uncertainty surrounding Robert's health and Bichette's declining defensive metrics provides legitimate reasons for caution. When Robert plays 140-plus games, he performs like an MVP candidate. The problem is he has never played 140 games in a season, and his injury history reads like a medical textbook. Bichette's offensive decline over the past two seasons also warrants monitoring.

I am taking the OVER here, betting on the talent aggregation working despite the individual red flags. The Soto, Lindor, Bichette, Robert core represents one of baseball's most dangerous lineups on paper. Peralta gives them a legitimate number-two starter behind Sean Manaea, and the bullpen should improve with Weaver anchoring the late innings. The Mets have the volatility to win 93 games or implode spectacularly, but I trust the talent level to push past 90 wins in what should be a highly competitive NL East race.

Atlanta Braves

O/U 88.5 Wins

The 2025 Braves season will be remembered as a nightmare that seemingly everything went wrong from the opening week onward. Starting 0-7 for the first time since 2016, Atlanta never recovered from the early hole despite briefly climbing above .500 in mid-May. They became the fastest team since the 1945 Red Sox to start 0-7 and reach .500, then promptly collapsed and never sniffed contention again. The 76-86 finish represented their first losing season since 2017, ending an incredible run of sustained excellence.

The injury bug devastated this roster in unprecedented fashion. The Braves used a major league record 71 players during the season, breaking the previous mark of 70 set by the 2024 Marlins. They also tied the record for most pitchers used at 46. Ronald Acuna Jr. never looked right following his ACL tear, and Spencer Strider's elbow issues limited him significantly. The run differential of minus-58 told the story of a team that simply could not stay healthy enough to compete. Brian Snitker managed his final season, stepping down after a decade at the helm.

The front office moved aggressively to address glaring needs while ushering in a new era under manager Walt Weiss. Ha-Seong Kim signed a one-year, $20 million deal to shore up shortstop defense after years of makeshift solutions at the position. Raisel Iglesias returned on a one-year, $16 million contract to anchor the bullpen, while Robert Suarez adds another elite arm on a three-year commitment. The Mauricio Dubon acquisition from Houston provides versatile infield depth.

The rotation remains the primary concern heading into spring training. Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider, Hurston Waldrep, and either Reynaldo Lopez or Grant Holmes comprise the projected five, but significant question marks surround everyone beyond Sale and Schwellenbach. The Braves have not addressed mid-rotation depth beyond minor league signings like Martin Perez. If Strider's elbow continues causing problems or Waldrep struggles as a rookie, this rotation could implode quickly.

The 86.5 number represents the market trying to split the difference between last year's disaster and the latent talent on this roster. Ronald Acuna Jr. at full health remains a generational player. Spencer Strider throwing 200 healthy innings immediately makes this a playoff-caliber rotation. The problem is neither outcome is guaranteed, and the injury history provides substantial reasons for pessimism.

I am going UNDER on this total, though reluctantly. The NL East has improved dramatically around them, with the Phillies, Mets, and even Marlins all making significant additions. The Braves bet heavily on internal bounce-backs from injured players rather than external reinforcements. When that strategy works, it looks brilliant. When players do not return to form, the team has no backup plan. The rotation depth concerns me most, as the margin for error behind Sale appears extremely thin.

Miami Marlins

O/U 73.5 Wins

Clayton McCullough's first season as manager produced an unexpected 17-win improvement from the disastrous 2024 campaign, pushing Miami to 79-83 and a surprising third-place NL East finish. This represented the franchise's best record since 2022 and suggested the rebuild might be progressing faster than anticipated. The young core showed genuine flashes, with breakout performances from several homegrown talents that provided hope for the future direction of the organization.

The underlying numbers, however, painted a more cautionary picture. Miami's Pythagorean record based on runs scored and allowed came out to 72-90, meaning the Marlins won seven more games than expected through close game variance. Only the Cleveland Guardians posted a luckier differential between actual and expected wins. The offensive production ranked near the bottom of the league, and while the pitching showed improvement, it benefited from fortunate sequencing in numerous close games. Xavier Edwards emerged as a legitimate offensive weapon, and Jakob Marsee's breakout in center field provided optimism.

The front office continued the youth movement while making several intriguing low-cost additions. Edward Cabrera heading to the Cubs for Owen Caissie and two other hitting prospects signaled the organization's priorities, as they preferred young bats over a controllable starter. Esteury Ruiz arrived from the Dodgers via trade, adding elite speed to an outfield already featuring strong athletes. Pete Fairbanks came over from Tampa Bay to potentially anchor the bullpen with late-inning experience.

Christopher Morel signed a $2 million deal after his time with the Rays, expected to man first base and provide some right-handed pop. The rotation looks interesting if fragile, with Eury Perez and hopefully a healthy Sandy Alcantara fronting the staff. Braxton Garrett returns from injury to provide needed depth. The outfield of Caissie, Kyle Stowers, and Marsee offers upside but also significant uncertainty given the collective lack of sustained MLB success.

The 73.5 feels appropriately skeptical of last year's overperformance while acknowledging some genuine development occurred. The Marlins improved substantially in 2025, but banking on them replicating that win total without significant regression seems optimistic given the underlying metrics. Losing Cabrera hurts the rotation depth, and the offense remains a collection of question marks rather than proven commodities.

I am going UNDER on this total. The regression toward their Pythagorean record should knock several wins off the total, and the division has improved dramatically around them. Eury Perez staying healthy for 30-plus starts is far from guaranteed, and Alcantara returning to ace form after his arm troubles requires a leap of faith. The youth movement excites for 2027 and beyond, but expecting 74-plus wins this season feels aggressive when the floor could easily be another 65-win campaign.

Washington Nationals

O/U 69.5 Wins

The Nationals' 2025 campaign represented a nadir for a franchise still trying to rebuild following the 2019 championship run. Finishing 66-96 and dead last in the NL East, Washington fired both general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez midseason as the organization decided to accelerate its transition to a new era. The roster featured intriguing young talent but lacked the depth or veteran presence necessary to compete in baseball's toughest division.

Dylan Crews and James Wood showed why they ranked among baseball's top prospects, providing hope for the offensive foundation going forward. MacKenzie Gore anchored a rotation that otherwise lacked reliable options, and CJ Abrams continued developing at shortstop despite some defensive inconsistencies. The home record of 32-49 proved particularly troubling, as the Nationals struggled to win at Nationals Park all season. A minus-138 run differential left no doubt this was a team far from contention.

The hiring of 35-year-old Paul Toboni as president of baseball operations signaled a dramatic organizational shift toward analytics and youth development. Toboni, formerly the Red Sox assistant GM, immediately began reshaping the roster through trades designed to accelerate the rebuild. The blockbuster deal sent MacKenzie Gore to Texas for a five-player package headlined by infield prospect Gavin Fien, prioritizing future depth over current competitiveness.

Jose Ferrer went to Seattle for catching prospect Harry Ford and pitcher Isaac Lyon in another deal focused on replenishing the farm system. Foster Griffin signed for $5.5 million after three seasons in Japan, representing the most significant free agent addition. Multiple waiver claims brought in relievers Richard Lovelady, Paxton Schultz, and George Soriano to fill bullpen spots. The message is clear: Washington is building toward 2028 and beyond rather than trying to compete in 2026.

The 67.5 number essentially projects the Nationals to run in place after last year's 66-win campaign. Trading Gore removes their best starting pitcher and ensures the rotation will struggle to keep games competitive. The offense should improve as Crews and Wood gain experience, but surrounding them with adequate veterans remains a challenge given the payroll constraints and organizational philosophy.

I am going UNDER on this total, betting the Gore trade and continued rebuilding approach keeps Washington below last year's modest output. The young core will produce individual highlights and occasional impressive victories, but the overall roster lacks the depth to grind through 162 games without lengthy losing streaks. The NL East improved dramatically, meaning even soft spots in the schedule will prove challenging. Sixty-five wins feels like the realistic ceiling with the current construction.

Milwaukee Brewers

O/U 87.5 Wins

The 2025 Brewers delivered the greatest regular season in franchise history, winning a club-record 97 games and running away with the NL Central title. Milwaukee's dominance included a remarkable 14-game winning streak, the longest in baseball since the 2022 Mariners achieved the same feat. The consistency proved remarkable from wire to wire, as Craig Counsell's former club maintained its small-market magic despite perennial predictions of decline. The run differential of plus-124 validated the record as legitimately earned rather than fortunate.

The postseason brought both triumph and heartbreak. Milwaukee defeated the Cubs in five games during their historic I-94 Series, the first playoff matchup between the franchises in history. However, the NLCS against the eventual champion Dodgers ended in a brutal four-game sweep where the Brewers managed just one run per loss. They actually swept the Dodgers during the regular season, making the postseason collapse even more confounding. Freddy Peralta emerged as an ace-caliber arm, William Contreras continued his ascent as one of baseball's best catchers, and the bullpen depth proved typically excellent.

The Brewers made the most shocking trade of the winter when they dealt Freddy Peralta to the Mets for prospect Jett Williams and pitcher Brandon Sproat. Moving their best starter after a 97-win season raised eyebrows across the industry, though it fits Milwaukee's pattern of selling high on players approaching free agency. Brandon Woodruff accepted his $22.025 million qualifying offer, providing needed rotation stability after his injury-plagued 2025 campaign. The retention proved crucial given Peralta's departure.

The roster otherwise returns largely intact, with William Contreras avoiding arbitration after the team declined his $12 million option. Jake Bauers signed for $2.7 million to fill the utility role, and the Brewers avoided major departures beyond Peralta. Minor league additions Gerson Garabito and Drew Rom provide organizational depth. The strategy clearly prioritizes prospect acquisition and payroll flexibility over maximizing the current window, a familiar approach from this front office that has confounded larger market teams for years.

The 86.5 line represents a significant drop from the 97-win reality of 2025, and the market clearly views the Peralta trade as a meaningful subtraction. This number effectively asks whether Milwaukee can replicate their success with a lesser rotation or whether the magic finally dissipates. The Brewers have defied skeptics for years, consistently outperforming projections through excellent player development and strategic roster construction.

I lean toward the OVER here, trusting Milwaukee's organizational excellence even after trading their ace. Woodruff returning healthy provides a frontline starter the team lacked for much of 2025. The lineup remains potent with Contreras, and the bullpen depth should again rank among the league's best. The Cubs improved substantially, but the Brewers have proven adept at finding value where others see none. Expecting 87-plus wins from this organization feels conservative given their track record of exceeding expectations annually.

Chicago Cubs

O/U 89.5 Wins

The Cubs took a major step forward in 2025, winning 92 games and reaching the Division Series for the first time since 2018. Chicago dominated at Wrigley Field with a 50-31 home record that ranked among baseball's best, though the road performance at 42-39 left room for improvement. The offense erupted at times, including a franchise-record eight-homer game against the Cardinals on Independence Day where Michael Busch launched three bombs and Pete Crow-Armstrong added two. The run differential of plus-98 suggested a legitimate playoff contender.

The postseason brought disappointment as Milwaukee won the first-ever I-94 Series in five games despite Chicago's strong regular season. Shota Imanaga emerged as a legitimate ace in his first full MLB season, anchoring a rotation that finally provided the stability the organization sought. The young core of Busch, Crow-Armstrong, and others showed genuine development while veterans like Ian Happ provided steady production. This felt like a team on the verge of something special rather than one that had peaked.

The Cubs made the biggest splash of the winter when they signed Alex Bregman to a five-year, $175 million contract, their third-largest signing in franchise history. The deal includes a full no-trade clause and $70 million in deferred money, dropping the net present value substantially. Adding a two-time World Series champion and consistent offensive producer immediately elevates the lineup while providing leadership for the young core. Bregman slots into third base, solidifying the left side of the infield.

Edward Cabrera arriving from Miami for Owen Caissie and two other prospects adds rotation upside if the electric right-hander can stay healthy. The bullpen received a complete overhaul with free agent signings Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey, Caleb Thielbar, Hoby Milner, and Jacob Webb. Shota Imanaga accepting his qualifying offer ensures the rotation maintains its anchor for $22.025 million. The projected payroll reaches $231 million, pushing toward the luxury tax threshold and signaling genuine win-now intentions.

The 90.5 number essentially asks whether the Cubs can match last year's 92-win output with Bregman instead of the previous third base options. On paper, this feels like an upgrade everywhere that matters. The rotation with Imanaga, Cabrera, and the returning arms should prove formidable, while the bullpen additions address a clear 2025 weakness. The offense gains a proven commodity in Bregman who brings postseason experience this clubhouse desperately needed.

I am taking the OVER here, betting on the Bregman addition pushing this team from good to genuinely elite. The Brewers trading Peralta theoretically opens the division door wider than any point in recent memory. Chicago has the financial commitment, the young talent, and now the veteran presence to win 93-plus games in what should be the weakest NL Central in years. The Cardinals imploding and the Reds treading water means the path to 90-plus wins runs through a soft divisional schedule.

Cincinnati Reds

O/U 82.5 Wins

Terry Francona worked his managerial magic in Cincinnati, guiding the Reds to their first playoff berth since 2020 and first full-season postseason appearance since 2013. The 83-79 record earned the sixth Wild Card spot through a combination of timely performances and some fortunate scheduling. Cincinnati became just the third team since 2000 to reach the playoffs with 83 or fewer wins, and they did so without a single player hitting .270 with 25 home runs, the first playoff team ever to accomplish that dubious distinction.

The postseason ended quickly as the Dodgers swept Cincinnati in the Wild Card round, continuing Los Angeles's dominant October run. The rotation showed flashes of potential with Hunter Greene's continued development, but the departure of free agents Nick Martinez and Zack Littell leaves holes that need filling. The offense generated runs through committee approach rather than star power, with no true MVP-caliber producer emerging from the lineup. Elly De La Cruz remained the most exciting player on the roster while his inconsistencies reflected a team still finding its identity.

The Reds retained Emilio Pagan on a two-year, $20 million deal to anchor the bullpen, the most significant commitment of their winter. Pierce Johnson adds another experienced arm to the relief corps. JJ Bleday arrived via free agency to provide outfield depth, while Yosver Zulueta heading to Seattle for minor league pitcher Dusty Revis saved modest money while resetting control clocks. The Dane Myers acquisition from Miami adds organizational depth without significant impact on the major league roster.

The rotation remains the primary concern as the front office relied on internal options to replace departed free agents. Chase Burns slots into the fifth starter role as a top-100 prospect finally getting his opportunity, while Chase Petty lurks as another highly-regarded arm. This strategy either produces homegrown gems or leaves Cincinnati exposed against division rivals who spent heavily. Francona's track record suggests he can maximize whatever talent the front office provides, but the ceiling feels lower than the Cubs or even a healthy Brewers squad.

The 80.5 line represents modest regression from the 83-win playoff season, and the market clearly doubts Cincinnati's ability to repeat their overperformance. The Reds benefited from favorable close game variance last year that may not replicate. Losing rotation depth while relying on unproven young arms to fill spots creates genuine risk, especially against improved Cubs and Cardinals teams that could emerge from the teardown stronger than expected.

I am going UNDER on this total. The 83 wins last year came with fortunate timing and a healthy dose of luck, and expecting similar fortune feels optimistic. The rotation depth concerns me most, as Cincinnati essentially needs two rookies to provide quality innings from day one. The offense remains inconsistent without a true anchor, and the division became harder with the Cubs adding Bregman. This feels like a 78-80 win team rather than another playoff contender.

Pittsburgh Pirates

O/U 75.5 Wins

The Pirates entered 2025 with genuine optimism surrounding Paul Skenes and their young pitching core, but the reality delivered another losing season and a tenth consecutive year missing the playoffs. The 71-91 record represented a step backward from the previous year's 76-86, as the offense proved unable to support even excellent pitching performances. Pittsburgh's home record of 44-37 showed potential, but a horrific 27-54 road mark destroyed any playoff aspirations before August arrived.

Skenes delivered everything promised and more, establishing himself as one of baseball's most dominant pitchers despite the team around him struggling to score runs. The rotation depth behind him showed promise with Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler, and others taking steps forward. However, the lineup ranked among baseball's weakest, leaving little margin for error even when the pitching performed well. Manager Derek Shelton's in-season firing signaled organizational frustration, and the front office clearly recognized that pitching alone cannot carry a playoff contender.

The Pirates made their most aggressive offseason moves in years, finally addressing the offensive deficiencies that plagued the 2025 season. Ryan O'Hearn signed a two-year, $29 million deal, marking Pittsburgh's first multi-year free agent position player signing since 2015. Brandon Lowe arrived via a three-team trade, bringing All-Star production and 31 home runs from the left side. The Johan Oviedo trade to Boston returned top-100 prospect Jhostynxon Garcia, adding outfield upside to the system.

The bullpen additions of Gregory Soto and Mason Montgomery provide needed left-handed relief options. The reported pursuit of Kyle Schwarber, though unsuccessful, demonstrated genuine willingness to spend that Pittsburgh fans rarely witness. The projected payroll approaching $100 million represents a franchise commitment to competing while Skenes remains cost-controlled. The offensive upgrades should immediately improve the lineup floor, even if questions remain about ceiling and depth.

The 76.5 number projects modest improvement from the 71-win disaster, essentially crediting the O'Hearn and Lowe additions with five additional wins. This feels reasonable given the transformative nature of those acquisitions for a lineup that ranked 28th in runs scored. Skenes provides a genuine ace, and the rotation depth remains promising with young arms continuing their development. The question becomes whether the offensive improvements translate to enough wins to matter.

I am going OVER on this total, trusting the offensive additions to provide more than the projected improvement. Brandon Lowe's 31 homers would have led the 2025 Pirates by a substantial margin, and O'Hearn provides professional at-bats the lineup desperately lacked. The pitching already performed well enough to win more games with run support, and Skenes should anchor a rotation capable of keeping Pittsburgh competitive nightly. This feels like an 80-82 win team that threatens the Wild Card race before ultimately falling short.

St. Louis Cardinals

O/U 73.5 Wins

The Cardinals' third consecutive year missing the playoffs cemented what many suspected: this era of St. Louis baseball has officially ended. The 78-84 record marked continued decline from the franchise's proud history, and the organizational response signaled recognition that incremental changes would not suffice. John Mozeliak stepping down as President of Baseball Operations after the season brought in Chaim Bloom to implement a new vision. The home record of 44-37 showed fans still filled Busch Stadium, but the road performance at 34-47 reflected a roster lacking the talent to compete consistently.

No singular disaster defined the season, just persistent mediocrity across all phases. The rotation never found an ace after Sonny Gray's declining performance, the offense lacked impact bats beyond brief stretches of production, and the bullpen proved inconsistent throughout. Nolan Arenado's declining defensive metrics and offensive production raised questions about his remaining value, while the farm system ranked among baseball's weakest after years of prospect trading. The September elimination felt inevitable rather than disappointing.

Bloom's arrival immediately sparked the most aggressive teardown in Cardinals history. Sonny Gray went to Boston for prospects Richard Fitts and Brandon Clarke. Willson Contreras followed to the Red Sox for Hunter Dobbins, Yhoiker Fajardo, and Blake Aita. Nolan Arenado headed to Arizona, clearing his contract and returning additional assets. The message is clear: St. Louis is building toward 2028 and beyond rather than patching holes on a sinking ship.

The positive additions remain minimal by design. Dustin May provides some rotation intrigue at $12.5 million if his arm holds up, making him the team's highest-paid player. Ryne Stanek adds bullpen experience. The Cardinals may begin the season without a single player over 30 years old on the Opening Day roster, an extraordinary transformation for a franchise defined by veteran leadership. Brendan Donovan's name continues circulating in trade rumors, potentially the last significant piece to move before the youth movement fully takes hold.

The 70.5 line reflects the reality of a team that traded its best players for prospects and now asks unproven youngsters to carry substantial responsibility. This number essentially projects a worse season than the 78-win output with a dramatically inferior roster, which feels appropriate given the departures. The Cardinals are not trying to win in 2026; they are trying to evaluate young talent and position themselves for future contention.

I am going UNDER on this total, trusting the teardown to produce the intended result of a very bad team. Without Gray, Contreras, and Arenado, the roster lacks established major league talent at multiple positions. Dustin May's injury history provides little confidence he will stay healthy, and the young players replacing departed veterans have not proven they belong at this level. The NL Central became harder with the Cubs improving, creating a path to 100 losses if enough goes wrong. This feels like a 65-68 win team.

Los Angeles Dodgers

O/U 102.5 Wins

The Dodgers won their second consecutive World Series, becoming MLB's first back-to-back champions since the 2000 Yankees and the first NL team to accomplish the feat since the 1976 Reds. The 93-69 regular season record extended their NL West dynasty to 12 division titles in 13 seasons while securing their 13th consecutive postseason appearance, the longest active streak in franchise history. The championship run featured unforgettable moments, including Freddie Freeman's second consecutive walk-off World Series homer and Yoshinobu Yamamoto earning World Series MVP honors with three wins and a 1.02 ERA.

The postseason path included sweeping the Reds in the Wild Card, dominating the Phillies in the NLDS, and sweeping the Brewers in the NLCS despite Milwaukee having beaten them 6-0 during the regular season. The seven-game World Series victory over Toronto required dramatic comebacks, with Miguel Rojas tying Game 7 with a solo homer when the Blue Jays were two outs from a championship and Will Smith delivering the go-ahead shot in the eleventh. Clayton Kershaw's retirement after 18 seasons ended an era, but the dynasty shows no signs of slowing.

The Dodgers made the offseason's most stunning move when they signed Kyle Tucker to a four-year, $240 million contract, a deal that carries a present-day average annual value of $57.1 million and shatters Juan Soto's previous AAV record. Tucker joins a lineup already featuring Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Will Smith, creating arguably the most dangerous batting order in modern history. The luxury tax implications are staggering, with the organization absorbing a $62.81 million tax hit on Tucker's contract alone given their spending tier.

Edwin Diaz arriving on a three-year, $69 million deal from the Mets adds elite closing experience to a bullpen that will miss Kirby Yates. Miguel Rojas returns for a final season before transitioning to a front office role, providing veteran stability and October heroism still fresh in memory. The departure of Kershaw leaves a symbolic void, but the rotation depth with Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and emerging arms ensures Los Angeles remains the class of the league. This organization operates on a different financial plane than any competitor.

The 99.5 number represents the highest win total in baseball by a significant margin, and the market clearly believes this roster can achieve the near-impossible task of winning 100 regular season games while chasing a three-peat. The Tucker addition transforms an already elite lineup into something approaching unprecedented. When your fifth or sixth best hitter would be the best player on most rosters, the math starts becoming unfair.

I lean toward the UNDER here, though betting against the Dodgers feels foolish given their recent track record. The 99.5 number essentially requires everything to go right for a team already dealing with workload concerns around several key pitchers. Yamamoto and Glasnow both have injury histories that make projecting 30-plus starts risky. The division provides minimal challenges, but the grind of 162 games typically produces more variance than this number allows. Give me the under at 99.5, trusting that even the Dodgers occasionally lose games to inferior opponents.

San Diego Padres

O/U 85.5 Wins

San Diego posted another strong regular season at 90-72 but fell short of division glory despite an excellent 52-29 home record that ranked among baseball's best. The road struggles at 38-43 provided a consistent reminder that this team performed vastly differently away from Petco Park's pitcher-friendly confines. The Wild Card berth ended quickly with a two-games-to-one loss to the Cubs, continuing the franchise's postseason frustrations despite regular season success.

The pitching carried the load with a 3.63 ERA that ranked third in baseball, though the offense provided minimal support with just 702 runs scored and 152 home runs, both ranking in the bottom third of the league. Dylan Cease anchored the rotation with another excellent campaign before departing in free agency, leaving a significant void atop the pitching staff. The roster remained talented but frustratingly inconsistent, capable of dominant stretches followed by inexplicable losing streaks that ultimately cost them home field advantage in the Wild Card round.

The Padres retained Michael King on a three-year, $75 million contract, ensuring rotation continuity after losing Dylan Cease to the Blue Jays. Korean star Sung-Mun Song signed for four years and $15 million after slashing .340/.409/.518 with the Kiwoom Heroes, adding intriguing offensive upside as a versatile infielder. Marco Gonzales provides veteran depth at a modest cost. However, the departures of Cease, Luis Arraez, and Ryan O'Hearn represent significant production leaving without adequate replacement.

The payroll sits around $220 million with luxury tax implications at $262 million, virtually identical to last year's figure. A.J. Preller has been linked to Framber Valdez as a potential rotation addition, and trading Nick Pivetta's $20.5 million salary could create the necessary flexibility. The current roster feels incomplete heading into spring training, though Preller has demonstrated a willingness to make aggressive moves when opportunities arise. The question becomes whether ownership authorizes further spending or this roster enters the season with notable holes.

The 86.5 number represents meaningful regression from the 90-win output, and the market clearly views the Cease and Arraez departures as significant losses. San Diego's offensive deficiencies remain unaddressed, with the lineup still lacking the consistent run production needed to support even excellent pitching. The division became dramatically harder with the Dodgers adding Tucker, creating an even wider gap at the top.

I am going UNDER on this total, trusting that the roster downgrades prove substantial enough to drop the win total into the low 80s. Losing Cease removes an elite arm that provided 30-plus quality starts annually. The offense shows no signs of improvement after ranking among baseball's weakest power outputs. Unless Preller adds another impact bat before Opening Day, this looks like an 83-85 win team that might not even secure a Wild Card spot in an improved National League landscape.

San Francisco Giants

O/U 81.5 Wins

The Giants finished .500 for what felt like the hundredth time in recent memory, extending their playoff drought to four consecutive seasons. The 81-81 record represented the eighth non-winning season in nine years for a franchise that won 107 games as recently as 2021. The midseason blockbuster acquiring Rafael Devers from Boston failed to provide the hoped-for spark, as San Francisco could not capitalize on adding a premium bat to their lineup. Manager Bob Melvin paid the price, fired after the season following a 161-163 record over two years.

Justin Verlander provided solid veteran innings before returning to free agency, but the rotation lacked consistent depth beyond Logan Webb's workhorse efforts. The offense showed moments of brilliance with Devers joining Matt Chapman and Willy Adames, yet the sum never exceeded the parts during meaningful stretches. The farm system continues producing interesting prospects, but the big league product remains stuck in mediocrity while the Dodgers dominate the division and the rest of the NL West fights for Wild Card scraps.

The hiring of Tony Vitello from Tennessee brings a fresh perspective and reported recruiting skills that could help compete for free agents against the Dodgers' financial juggernaut. Adrian Houser signed for two years and $22 million to provide rotation depth, though projecting him as anything beyond a back-end starter seems optimistic. Buster Posey, now running baseball operations, has been linked to Framber Valdez as a potential ace addition that would immediately upgrade the rotation hierarchy.

The core of Devers, Adames, Chapman, Webb, and Patrick Bailey provides legitimate star power, but the supporting cast remains thin. The departures of Verlander, Wilmer Flores, and Tom Murphy remove veteran presence without adequate replacement. The payroll sits around $185 million with room to add, yet the front office has not made the splashy move that would signal genuine belief in this team's playoff potential. The Giants feel like they are waiting for something to happen rather than making it happen.

The 79.5 number essentially asks whether San Francisco can reach .500 with a slightly different roster construction. The Houser addition does not move the needle meaningfully, and the rotation behind Webb remains questionable. If Valdez or another impact arm arrives, this number suddenly looks too low. Without that addition, the Giants appear destined for another forgettable campaign.

I am going UNDER on this total, betting that the roster as currently constructed underperforms even modest expectations. The Dodgers dominance ensures limited division victories, and the rotation depth beyond Webb remains concerning. The offense has talented pieces but has not consistently produced runs when needed most. Unless Posey pulls off a significant addition before Opening Day, this looks like a 76-78 win team that fires another manager by September.

Arizona Diamondbacks

O/U 79.5 Wins

The Diamondbacks suffered through a brutal injury-plagued campaign that derailed any hopes of building on their 2023 World Series run. Corbin Burnes, their marquee offseason acquisition, went down with Tommy John surgery early in the season, removing an ace they desperately needed. High-leverage relievers A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez also required elbow surgeries, decimating a bullpen that was already thin. The 80-82 finish marked their first sub-.500 season since 2022 and first time missing playoffs since 2019.

The offense actually ranked top-six in scoring despite the pitching catastrophe, with Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Geraldo Perdomo providing star production. Manager Torey Lovullo squeezed everything possible from a depleted roster, but the rotation simply could not keep games competitive consistently. The midseason trade sending Merrill Kelly to Texas signaled organizational acceptance that 2025 was lost. The season finale loss to San Diego epitomized the frustration, dropping Arizona unceremoniously below .500 for the final time.

The Nolan Arenado acquisition from St. Louis provides fascinating upside at minimal cost. Arizona pays just $5 million of his $27 million salary in 2026 and $6 million in 2027, with the Cardinals eating the rest after Arenado waived his no-trade clause to return closer to his Colorado roots. The 34-year-old struggled in 2025 with a .237/.287/.377 slash line, but the talent remains despite the down year. His 10 Gold Gloves suggest the defense can still play at elite levels.

Re-signing Merrill Kelly to a one-year, $20 million deal provides rotation stability after trading him at the deadline. Michael Soroka joins as a reclamation project, while Jonathan Loaisiga adds bullpen depth on a minor league deal. The primary concern remains the closer situation, as both Puk and Martinez remain months away from returning from their elbow surgeries. Without a reliable ninth-inning option, Arizona could squander leads that this roster has the offensive firepower to build.

The 78.5 number reflects appropriate skepticism about a team with massive rotation question marks and an unproven bullpen situation. Arenado provides upside if he bounces back, but betting on a 35-year-old with declining metrics feels risky. The offense should produce runs, but the pitching depth issues that plagued 2025 remain largely unaddressed beyond the Kelly re-signing.

I am going OVER on this total, trusting the offensive core to carry a roster that benefits from low expectations. Carroll, Marte, and Perdomo form a legitimate middle-of-the-order trio, and Arenado at a bargain price provides more upside than the market credits. Kelly returning healthy gives them a proven arm, and the bullpen cannot possibly perform worse than last year's disaster. This feels like an 82-84 win team that surprises people who forgot how talented the position player core remains.

Colorado Rockies

O/U 54.5 Wins

The Rockies delivered the worst season in franchise history and one of the worst in modern baseball, winning just 43 games while losing 119. Colorado set numerous ignominious records, including the most losses before the All-Star Break in modern history with 74, surpassing even the historically bad 2024 White Sox. The team was eliminated from playoff contention on August 23, the earliest elimination date possible, and continued losing at a historically awful pace through September.

The third consecutive 100-loss season extended a run of futility unmatched in franchise history. The Rockies became the first team eliminated every month from June through August, a statistical achievement nobody wanted. The franchise has never won a division title in their 32-year history, sharing that dubious distinction only with the expansion-era Marlins. When the season mercifully ended, nobody was surprised when GM Bill Schmidt and assistant GM Zack Rosenthal resigned, ushering in a new era under Paul DePodesta.

The arrival of Paul DePodesta as president of baseball operations and Josh Byrnes as general manager signals organizational recognition that everything must change. Michael Lorenzen signed for one year and $8 million with a club option, representing the first notable pickup under the new regime. Willi Castro adds versatility on a two-year deal, while Jake McCarthy arrived from Arizona via trade, bringing elite speed despite limited power production.

The January trade activity brought Edouard Julien from Minnesota and T.J. Rumfield from New York, adding potential contributors while continuing to cycle through low-cost options. DePodesta's public statements indicate expectations of significant improvement, but the roster lacks the talent necessary to compete even in a weakened NL West. The organization is clearly building for 2028 and beyond rather than expecting meaningful results in 2026, though they probably will not admit that publicly.

The 54.5 number represents the lowest win total in baseball for the third consecutive preseason, though different teams have held that distinction each year. Projecting an 11-win improvement from the 43-win disaster requires substantial faith in organizational competence that recent history does not support. The roster shows minimal upgrades despite the front office overhaul, and Coors Field continues punishing any pitcher foolish enough to throw there regularly.

I am going OVER on this total, betting on simple regression to the mean after an historically awful campaign. The 43-win season included substantial bad luck and poor sequencing that should normalize somewhat. DePodesta brings a different analytical approach that could unlock hidden value in unexpected places. This team is bad, potentially very bad, but 55 wins feels achievable even for a roster this thin. The 2025 performance was partially aberrant, and expecting similar futility seems pessimistic.