Complete breakdown of the American League and National League MVP races. Statistical analysis, historical context, and betting value for every major contender.
Last updated: January 31, 2026
The 2025 American League MVP race produced one of the closest votes in recent memory. Aaron Judge captured his third MVP award with 17 first-place votes, but Cal Raleigh pushed him to the final ballot with 13 first-place votes of his own. The margin came down to narrative as much as performance, with Judge's Yankees making the playoffs while Raleigh's Mariners fell just short of the division title.
Judge enters 2026 as the clear AL favorite at +200, but the depth of contenders behind him creates opportunities for value seekers. Raleigh proved that a catcher can produce MVP caliber offense, and his 60 home run season shattered Johnny Bench's long-standing position record. Bobby Witt Jr. put together an elite all-around season with Gold Glove defense and 184 hits. The emergence of Nick Kurtz as a power threat and Junior Caminero's 45 home run breakout at age 21 add young talent to the conversation.
| Player | Team | Odds | 2025 Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | NYY | +200 | .331/53 HR/1.145 OPS/10.1 fWAR |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | +850 | .247/60 HR/.948 OPS/9.1 fWAR |
| Gunnar Henderson | BAL | +750 | Elite SS production |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | +700 | Pure hitter upside |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | +500 | 184 H, 47 2B, 2x Gold Glove, +20 DRS |
| Nick Kurtz | OAK | +900 | 2025 Unanimous AL ROY |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | +1000 | Moved to NL |
| Julio Rodriguez | SEA | +1100 | 40+ HR, 100 RBI, 100 BB, 30 SB |
| Vlad Guerrero Jr. | TOR | +1200 | Bounce back candidate |
| Jose Ramirez | CLE | +1300 | Consistent 6+ fWAR |
| Junior Caminero | TB | +1400 | 45 HR at age 21 |
| Pete Alonso | BAL | +1600 | New team, lineup boost |
Judge's 2025 season removed any lingering doubts about his place among the game's all-time greats. His .331 batting average led the American League, his 53 home runs led both leagues, and his 1.145 OPS represented the best mark in baseball. The 10.1 fWAR ranked first in the majors and marked his third season above 10 WAR in the last four years.
The concern with Judge has always been durability, and he addressed that emphatically by playing 157 games in 2025. At 34 years old entering the 2026 season, age becomes a factor, but nothing in his performance suggests decline. His barrel rate, exit velocity, and chase rate all remained elite. The Yankees retooled around him during the offseason, adding pieces designed to extend his protection in the lineup.
The +200 price reflects his status as the presumptive favorite but offers minimal value given the injury risk inherent in any player this age. The smarter approach may be waiting for Spring Training and taking a position if his odds lengthen on a minor setback.
Raleigh's 2025 campaign rewrote what we thought was possible from a catcher. His 60 home runs obliterated the position record of 45 set by Johnny Bench in 1970. The power surge came without sacrificing his defensive value, as Raleigh continued to handle one of the best pitching staffs in baseball while throwing out runners at an above average rate.
The .247 batting average remains the knock on Raleigh's profile. MVP voters historically favor well-rounded stat lines, and Judge's .331 average provided a clear differentiator in the final vote. Raleigh will need to improve his contact rates to close that gap, or he will need to produce another historic power season to overcome the average deficit.
At +850, Raleigh offers legitimate value if you believe the power is sustainable. His underlying metrics support the production. His barrel rate ranked among the league leaders, and his pull-side fly ball approach in Seattle's homer-friendly confines creates a repeatable power formula. The Mariners adding bats around him should lead to more RBI opportunities and potentially a playoff berth that would boost his narrative.
Witt represents the most well-rounded candidate in the American League field. His 184 hits led the league, his 47 doubles ranked second, and his defensive metrics at shortstop graded among the best in baseball. The two-time Gold Glove winner added 20 Defensive Runs Saved to his offensive production, creating an fWAR that would have won MVP in many seasons.
The issue for Witt is the lack of a singular standout number. He does not lead the league in home runs like Judge or Raleigh. He does not post the eye-popping OPS figures that draw voter attention. His value comes from doing everything well rather than doing one thing historically, and MVP voters tend to gravitate toward the spectacular.
The Royals' trajectory matters significantly for Witt's chances. Kansas City surprised in 2025 and appears positioned to compete for a playoff spot in 2026. If the Royals win the division and Witt leads them there, the narrative could shift in his favor. The +500 price offers value on a player who has elite upside and the consistency to maintain MVP-level production.
Henderson enters his age-25 season having already established himself as one of the premier shortstops in baseball. His combination of power, patience, and positional value at a premium defensive spot creates an MVP profile that could emerge at any time. The Orioles' stacked lineup around him provides counting stat opportunities that other candidates lack.
The addition of Pete Alonso to the Baltimore lineup extends the protection for Henderson in a way that could unlock even more production. Pitchers will have fewer opportunities to pitch around him with Alonso batting behind him. The Orioles' championship window is now, and Henderson performing at an MVP level would be central to any deep playoff run.
Caminero's 45 home run season at age 21 announced a potential superstar. The raw power is generational, and his ability to catch up to elite velocity suggests the tools to hit at the highest level. The Rays have never produced an MVP winner, and Caminero has the upside to change that.
The value at +1400 is significant if you believe in the continued development arc. Young players typically improve in their second and third full seasons as they learn how pitchers attack them. Caminero's power would need to sustain while his plate discipline improves, but the ceiling is MVP-level production as early as 2026.
The 2026 National League MVP race is essentially Shohei Ohtani and the field. Ohtani's -125 odds make him the heaviest favorite in recent MVP betting history, and his 2025 season justifies that status. Four career MVP awards. Three consecutive NL MVPs. A unanimous selection with all 30 first-place votes. The only player in history to produce at an elite level as both a hitter and pitcher simultaneously.
Finding value in this market requires identifying the scenarios where Ohtani does not win. Injury is the most obvious path. A significant slump. Or a challenger putting together a season so remarkable that it overcomes Ohtani's default status. Juan Soto's first full season in Queens, Mookie Betts with a healthy year, Ronald Acuna Jr. returning from his ACL tear, or Fernando Tatis Jr. staying on the field could all create competitive races.
| Player | Team | Odds | 2025 Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | -125 | .282/55 HR/1.014 OPS + 2.87 ERA |
| Juan Soto | NYM | +500 | Elite OBP, lineup protection |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | +750 | When healthy, MVP talent |
| Mookie Betts | LAD | +1200 | Former MVP, lineup stacked |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | +1400 | Two-time MVP, leadership |
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | +1600 | Elite SS, Mets contending |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | ATL | +1600 | First full season back from ACL |
| Elly De La Cruz | CIN | +2000 | Speed/power combo |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | +2500 | Power, patience, leadership |
Ohtani's 2025 season transcended normal baseball analysis. He hit .282 with 55 home runs and a 1.014 OPS while also posting a 2.87 ERA across 14 starts on the mound. No player in baseball history has produced at this level from both sides. His unanimous MVP selection with all 30 first-place votes reflected a consensus that he was not merely the best player in the National League but operating on a plane no one else could reach.
The historical context is staggering. Ohtani's four career MVP awards trail only Barry Bonds, who won seven. A fifth MVP in 2026 would move him into sole possession of second place all-time. His three consecutive NL MVPs match the only other players to accomplish that feat. He is redefining what is possible for an individual baseball player.
The -125 price offers no value from a pure odds perspective. You are laying significant juice on a player who could miss time for various reasons. The smarter approach is likely waiting for a potential midseason opportunity if Ohtani slumps or misses a few weeks, then taking a plus-money position on his recovery.
Soto enters his first full season with the Mets as the most dangerous pure hitter in the National League not named Ohtani. His elite plate discipline creates walk rates that inflate his on-base percentage regardless of batting average fluctuations. The Mets' lineup construction around him, with Francisco Lindor ahead and Pete Alonso behind for much of 2025, provides run production opportunities.
The case for Soto winning MVP requires Ohtani missing significant time or slumping dramatically. Soto's offensive profile is elite but not unprecedented in the way Ohtani's two-way production remains unique. At +500, you are essentially betting on Ohtani underperformance rather than Soto overperformance, which makes the value proposition questionable.
Acuna won the 2023 NL MVP with one of the most complete seasons in recent memory before his ACL tear derailed his 2024 campaign. The 2025 season represented a rehab year of sorts, with Acuna gradually working his way back to full strength. Now entering 2026 with a full offseason of training behind him, the talent that made him a unanimous MVP winner remains intact.
The +1600 price represents genuine value if you believe Acuna returns to his pre-injury form. Players returning from ACL tears historically take 18 to 24 months to regain full explosiveness, which puts Acuna right in the window for a breakthrough 2026. The Braves remain a contending team, and Acuna leading them to a division title would create the narrative momentum needed to challenge Ohtani.
The risk is that ACL injuries affect players differently, and Acuna's game relies heavily on his speed and explosiveness. If the first step is diminished, the stolen base numbers and defensive range that contributed to his 2023 WAR may not return. Spring Training performance will provide crucial data on his recovery trajectory.
Tatis possesses the highest ceiling of any player in the National League field behind Ohtani. His combination of power, speed, and defensive ability at shortstop creates an MVP profile that few can match. The issue has always been durability, with various injuries limiting his availability over the past three seasons.
At +750, Tatis represents a higher-risk, higher-reward proposition. A fully healthy season would likely produce 6+ fWAR and potentially challenge for the MVP if Ohtani falters. The Padres need him at his best to compete in the loaded NL West, creating alignment between team and individual success.
The MVP markets offer several approaches depending on your risk tolerance and timeline. The conservative approach is waiting until midseason to take positions, allowing you to evaluate performance data and injury situations before committing. The aggressive approach is taking longer-shot candidates now before Spring Training performance shortens their odds.
For the American League, the value appears to sit in the +500 to +1400 range. Bobby Witt Jr. at +500 offers a complete player on a potentially playoff-bound team. Cal Raleigh at +850 provides exposure to historic power production. Junior Caminero at +1400 is the lottery ticket on a young player with MVP ceiling.
For the National League, Ronald Acuna Jr. at +1600 stands out as the best value play. His pre-injury production was MVP caliber, and the 18-24 month recovery timeline positions him for a breakout 2026 if healthy. The Braves remaining competitive provides the team context needed for individual awards.
Home run props connect directly to MVP candidacy. Players who lead the league in home runs often finish in the top five of MVP voting regardless of other factors. Our home run props guide explains how to evaluate power potential and identify players positioned for career years.
MVP voting takes place after the conclusion of the regular season but before the postseason begins. The Baseball Writers' Association of America members in each city submit their ballots ranking their top ten candidates. Results are typically announced in November during the awards ceremony.
Each BBWAA voter submits a ranked ballot with ten candidates. First-place votes receive 14 points, second-place receives 9 points, third receives 8 points, and so on down to tenth place receiving 1 point. The player with the most total points wins the award. Two voters from each MLB city participate, creating a 30-member voting body for each league.
Yes, pitchers can win MVP, though it remains rare. Justin Verlander won the 2011 AL MVP, and Clayton Kershaw won the 2014 NL MVP. Shohei Ohtani's unique two-way status has allowed him to accumulate both pitching and hitting value, making his MVP campaigns different from traditional starting pitchers.
Barry Bonds holds the record with seven career MVP awards. Shohei Ohtani currently has four, tied with several players for second all-time. A fifth MVP in 2026 would give Ohtani sole possession of second place. Only Fred Lynn in 1975 and Ichiro Suzuki in 2001 have won MVP as rookies.