Complete breakdown of the American League and National League Rookie of the Year races. Prospects, Japanese imports, and betting value analysis.
Last updated: January 31, 2026
The 2025 Rookie of the Year awards set up fascinating dynamics for the 2026 races. Nick Kurtz won the American League award unanimously, becoming only the third player in Oakland Athletics history to receive every first-place vote. His immediate impact on a rebuilding franchise demonstrated that elite talent can make a difference regardless of team context.
Drake Baldwin captured the National League award with 21 of 30 first-place votes, edging out a competitive field that included several pitching candidates. Baldwin's ability to produce at catcher while managing a pitching staff impressed voters, though the lack of a unanimous selection suggests the field was more competitive than the final result indicated.
The 2026 races feature two names that dominated the 2025 postseason despite not qualifying for Rookie of the Year that season. Trey Yesavage and Nolan McLean both accumulated too many plate appearances or innings in 2025 to qualify, pushing their eligibility to 2026. Their October performances created anticipation for what a full season might bring.
Trey Yesavage enters the 2026 season with as much hype as any pitching prospect in recent memory. His journey from Single-A to the World Series in a single calendar year defied all conventional wisdom about player development. The Blue Jays trusted him with high-leverage playoff innings, and he responded with performances that will be remembered for decades.
The Japanese imports add intrigue to the American League race. Munetaka Murakami holds the NPB single-season home run record with 56, and his power could translate immediately to the White Sox lineup. Tatsuya Imai brings elite stuff to the Astros rotation and could compete for Cy Young and Rookie of the Year simultaneously if everything clicks.
| Player | Team | Odds | Background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Yesavage | TOR | +300 | Single-A to World Series in 2025, 39 K in playoffs |
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | +380 | 56 HR NPB record 2022, Japanese import |
| Kevin McGonigle | DET | +500 | .305/.408/.583 in minors, elite bat |
| Tatsuya Imai | HOU | +600 | Japanese pitcher, elite stuff |
| Travis Bazzana | CLE | +800 | 2024 1st overall pick |
| Charlie Condon | COL | +1000 | 2024 3rd overall pick |
Yesavage's 2025 postseason run belongs in the category of performances that seem too remarkable to be true. He began the year in Single-A, working his way through the Blue Jays' minor league system with dominant performances at every level. By September, he was in the major leagues. By October, he was Toronto's most trusted arm in high-leverage situations.
The numbers from his playoff run deserve individual attention. His 39 strikeouts in the postseason set a new rookie record. In the ALDS against the Yankees, he threw a no-hitter through 5.1 innings with 11 strikeouts in Game 2. His 12 strikeouts in World Series Game 5 set the rookie record for a single World Series game. The Blue Jays ultimately fell to the Dodgers, but Yesavage emerged as the brightest young star in baseball.
His stuff grades out as elite. The fastball sits 95-98 with late life that generates swings and misses at the top of the zone. His slider has wipeout potential against right-handed hitters. The changeup continues to develop but already plays as an effective third pitch. The complete arsenal suggests he can handle a starter's workload, though the Blue Jays may protect his arm by limiting innings in 2026.
At +300, Yesavage is the clear favorite for good reason. His playoff performance demonstrated poise beyond his years and stuff that can dominate at the highest level. The only questions are workload management and whether he can sustain that level over 150+ innings. Our strikeout props guide breaks down the metrics that predict strikeout success, and Yesavage grades out as an elite target.
Murakami's 56 home runs in 2022 broke the NPB single-season record, a mark that had stood since 1964. The left-handed power bat draws comparisons to Hideki Matsui, another Japanese slugger who transitioned successfully to MLB. His ability to drive the ball to all fields suggests the power will translate, though the adjustment to major league pitching takes time for even the most talented hitters.
The White Sox signed Murakami as part of their rebuild, giving him regular playing time and the opportunity to establish himself without playoff pressure. The lack of protection in the lineup could hurt his counting stats, as pitchers may choose to work around him rather than give him pitches to hit. His batting average may suffer as he adjusts to breaking balls and velocity.
At +380, Murakami offers value for those who believe in the power translation. Japanese position players have historically taken a year or two to fully adjust, but the upside is significant. If he hits 35+ home runs and the White Sox improve, he would be a legitimate Rookie of the Year contender. The risk is a slow start that tanks his odds by midseason.
McGonigle hit his way through the minors in 2025 with a line that jumped off the page. His .305 average demonstrated pure hitting ability. His .408 on-base percentage showed elite plate discipline. His .583 slugging with 19 home runs in just 88 games proved the power was legitimate. The Tigers moved him to third base in the Fall League, and he looked comfortable at the position.
The Tigers' rebuilding timeline aligns perfectly with McGonigle's development. They need bats, and he provides one of the best in the minor leagues. His Spring Training performance will determine whether he breaks camp with the big league team or starts in Triple-A. Either way, he should see significant time in Detroit by midseason at the latest.
At +500, McGonigle offers value as a pure hitter who could produce immediately. The position change to third base adds uncertainty, but his bat should play regardless of where he stands on the diamond. If he earns regular playing time early, his approach could lead to consistent production throughout the season.
Nolan McLean enters 2026 as the likely Opening Day starter for a Mets team with World Series aspirations. His 2025 debut was remarkable: a 5-1 record with a 2.06 ERA across eight starts after his August call-up. He became the first Mets pitcher to win his first four career starts, and his 57 strikeouts in 48 innings demonstrated swing-and-miss stuff that can dominate.
The National League race also features several highly-regarded position prospects. JJ Wetherholt brings a complete skillset to the Cardinals. Moises Ballesteros offers an intriguing bat behind the plate for the Cubs. Sal Stewart represents the latest in a line of Reds prospects ready to contribute. The depth of candidates creates value opportunities throughout the odds board.
| Player | Team | Odds | Background |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan McLean | NYM | +340 | 5-1, 2.06 ERA in 2025 debut, likely Opening Day starter |
| JJ Wetherholt | STL | +700 | Cardinals IF, complete skillset |
| Moises Ballesteros | CHC | +800 | Cubs C, switch-hitting bat |
| Sal Stewart | CIN | +900 | Reds No. 1 prospect, elite bat |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | +1000 | Giants 1B, No. 12 overall prospect |
| Carson Benge | NYM | +1200 | Mets OF, tools across the board |
McLean's 2025 debut announced him as a future ace. His 5-1 record caught the headlines, but the underlying numbers told an even better story. His 2.06 ERA ranked among the best for any pitcher making their debut that late in the season. His 57 strikeouts in 48 innings represented a strikeout rate that would be elite for any pitcher, let alone a rookie. The Mets trusted him with meaningful games down the stretch, and he rewarded that trust with quality starts.
The historical context adds weight to his candidacy. McLean became the first Mets pitcher to win his first four career starts, surpassing legends who donned the orange and blue. His ability to handle the New York spotlight suggests the mental makeup needed for a full season in the rotation. The Mets have built a championship-caliber roster, and McLean is positioned to be a key contributor.
At +340, McLean offers value as a near-lock for the Opening Day rotation. His established performance in the majors removes much of the uncertainty that typically surrounds rookie candidates. If he continues to develop his secondary pitches and handle major league lineups, a 15-win season with 180+ strikeouts is within reach. That profile would be difficult to beat for Rookie of the Year.
Wetherholt entered the 2024 draft as the consensus top college bat and has done nothing to diminish that reputation. His bat-to-ball skills grade out as plus-plus, with the ability to make hard contact regardless of the pitch type or location. The Cardinals love players who control the strike zone, and Wetherholt fits that profile perfectly.
The position remains somewhat unclear, with the Cardinals evaluating him at multiple spots. His ultimate home may be second base or left field, but his bat should play regardless of where he ends up. The Cardinals' track record of developing young hitters adds confidence that Wetherholt will get every opportunity to succeed.
At +700, Wetherholt offers value for those who believe in the bat. Contact hitters can put up consistent numbers from day one, avoiding the slumps that often derail power-focused rookies. If he earns regular playing time and maintains his approach, a .280 average with respectable counting stats would make him a contender.
The Reds have developed a conveyor belt of talented hitters in recent years, and Stewart represents the next product off that line. His power grades out as plus-plus, with the ability to hit the ball out of any part of Great American Ball Park. The question is whether his hit tool develops enough to maintain consistent contact at the major league level.
Stewart's 2025 minor league season demonstrated both the upside and the concerns. He hit for power consistently but struggled with strikeout rates at times. The Reds will give him every opportunity to succeed, and their hitter-friendly park provides margin for error. At +900, he offers lottery ticket value on a player with 40 home run potential if everything clicks.
The Rookie of the Year markets offer unique opportunities for patient bettors. Unlike MVP and Cy Young, where the favorites are established stars, Rookie of the Year candidates include players who have not yet proven themselves at the major league level. This uncertainty creates wider odds ranges and more potential for value.
Spring Training performance matters significantly for these markets. A hot March from a prospect can shorten their odds dramatically, while a cold start can create buying opportunities. Pay attention to which players make Opening Day rosters and which get sent down, as playing time is the single most important factor in Rookie of the Year voting.
For the American League, Trey Yesavage at +300 is probably fairly priced given his established playoff performance. The value plays are Kevin McGonigle at +500 if he earns regular playing time and Munetaka Murakami at +380 if you believe in the power translation.
For the National League, Nolan McLean at +340 offers the best combination of established performance and team context. JJ Wetherholt at +700 is the value play for those who prefer contact hitters. Sal Stewart at +900 is the lottery ticket on plus-plus power.
A player is considered a rookie if they have not exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues, and have not accumulated more than 45 days on an active Major League roster during the 25-player limit period, excluding time on the injured list or disabled list.
Like other major awards, Rookie of the Year voting takes place after the regular season ends but before the postseason begins. Two BBWAA members from each city submit ballots ranking their top three candidates. Results are announced in November.
Only two rookies have won MVP in baseball history. Fred Lynn won both Rookie of the Year and MVP in 1975 for the Red Sox. Ichiro Suzuki accomplished the same feat in 2001 for the Mariners. Both represent historic seasons that may never be replicated.
The Dodgers have won the most Rookie of the Year awards in baseball history with 18. Their player development system consistently produces major league ready talent, from Jackie Robinson (the first winner) to recent stars. The Yankees and Red Sox trail with 8 each.