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Arizona Diamondbacks

2026 Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Player Prop Analysis

NL West
Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Updated: February 2026
#7 Corbin Carroll Arizona Diamondbacks 2026
Corbin Carroll
Outfield
31
HR (2025)
.259
AVG (2025)
32
SB (2025)
#4 Ketel Marte Arizona Diamondbacks 2026
Ketel Marte
Second Base
28
HR (2025)
.283
AVG (2025)
.893
OPS (2025)
#28 Acquired Nolan Arenado Arizona Diamondbacks 2026
Nolan Arenado
Third Base
.237
AVG (2025)
12
HR (2025)
.666
OPS (2025)

Key Offseason Changes

🔄

Nolan Arenado Acquired from Cardinals

Eight-time All-Star brings elite defense and veteran bat. D-backs owe $11M of remaining $42M on contract. Jack Martinez to STL.

Merrill Kelly Returns (2-year, $40M)

After being dealt to Texas at the trade deadline, Kelly comes home to anchor the rotation. Veteran stability critical for young staff.

Michael Soroka Signed (1-year deal)

Former All-Star seeking comeback after multiple Achilles surgeries. Low-risk, high-upside rotation depth addition.

James McCann Signed (1-year, $2.75M)

Veteran backup catcher behind Gabriel Moreno. Experienced game-caller for young pitching staff.

Jake McCarthy Traded to Rockies

Speed-first outfielder dealt for RHP Josh Grosz. Opens playing time for younger corner outfielders.

Bullpen Injuries Mount

A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez both had UCL surgery. Kevin Ginkel on 60-day IL. Bullpen in flux entering 2026.

Projected Starting Lineup

Order Position Player Notes
1 CF Corbin Carroll 2023 ROY looking to bounce back
2 2B Ketel Marte All-Star caliber bat, elite hitter
3 3B Nolan Arenado Eight-time All-Star, elite defense
4 LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Moves to corner OF with Arenado
5 C Gabriel Moreno Young star catcher, offensive upside
6 1B Pavin Smith On 60-day IL, expected back early
7 RF Adrian Del Castillo Young power bat gets opportunity
8 SS Geraldo Perdomo Elite defender, contact-oriented
9 OF Alek Thomas Young outfielder, plus defense and speed

Projected Starting Rotation

Slot Pitcher Throws Notes
1 Merrill Kelly RHP Veteran ace returns on 2yr/$40M
2 Eduardo Rodriguez LHP Lefty innings eater, experience
3 Brandon Pfaadt RHP Young arm developing into mid-rotation
4 Ryne Nelson RHP Ground ball pitcher, needs refinement
5 Michael Soroka RHP Comeback bid after multiple surgeries

Bullpen & Closer Situation

The Diamondbacks bullpen is in transition after multiple key injuries. A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez both underwent UCL surgery, while Kevin Ginkel starts the season on the 60-day IL. The team finished 2025 with a 4.82 bullpen ERA, better than only three other teams. Closer role is unsettled with Ginkel's health uncertain.

Role Pitcher Notes
CL Kevin Ginkel 60-day IL to start, closer role when healthy
SU Ryan Thompson Could see closing chances early
SU Drey Jameson Former starter, high-octane reliever
MID Juan Morillo Power arm in middle relief
MID Andrew Saalfrank Lefty specialist option
LR Brandyn Garcia Long relief, bulk innings role

Prop Betting Angles

Prop Angle Prop Analysis

After a disappointing sophomore campaign, Carroll's season stat props (HRs, SBs, hits) could be set conservatively. The 2023 ROY showed star potential and at 25, a regression to his elite rookie form makes overs interesting at discounted lines. Watch for 20+ HR and 30+ SB potential.

Prop Angle RBIs

Marte remains one of the most underrated hitters in baseball. His consistent contact ability (.310+ hitter) makes nightly hits overs attractive. In a lineup now featuring Arenado behind him, expect more RBI opportunities and counting stat production.

Prop Angle Home Runs

After declining numbers in St. Louis, Arenado's props will be set lower than his career norms. The move to hitter-friendly Chase Field could spark a renaissance. Target RBI overs and over season home run totals if lines are deflated from his down 2025.

Prop Angle Hits

Moreno flashed star potential in 2024 before injuries. With a full healthy season, he could emerge as a top-5 catcher offensively. Season-long over on average and hits props could pay off, especially if lines haven't caught up to his development.

Kelly Strikeouts

Kelly's return gives prop bettors a reliable option. His 5-6 K range offers consistent nightly value. At 37, he won't blow away hitters, but his crafty approach yields predictable outcomes for strikeout props.

If Soroka Strikeouts

If Soroka returns to even 75% of his 2019 All-Star form, his props will be severely undervalued. High-risk but potentially massive reward on strikeout and win props if healthy. Monitor spring training closely.

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