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Minnesota Twins

2026 Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Player Prop Analysis

AL Central
Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
Updated: February 2026
#23 Royce Lewis Minnesota Twins 2026
Royce Lewis
Third Base / SS
.237
AVG (2025)
13
HR (2025)
.671
OPS (2025)
#25 Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins 2026
Byron Buxton
Center Field
35
HR (2025)
.264
AVG (2025)
.878
OPS (2025)
#49 Pablo Lopez Minnesota Twins 2026
Pablo Lopez
Starting Pitcher
2.74
ERA (2025)
73
K (2025)
75.2
IP (2025)

Key Offseason Changes

The Twins are in full rebuild mode after a disastrous 2025 season that saw 90 losses, the lowest Target Field attendance in history, and manager Rocco Baldelli's departure. The trade deadline fire sale shipped out 11 players, including a stunning salary dump of Carlos Correa, the highest-paid player in franchise history.

The offseason brought modest additions: Josh Bell (1-year + mutual option) at first base, Victor Caratini (2 years) behind the plate, and Taylor Rogers ($2M) returning to the bullpen. Joe Ryan agreed to a $6.1M deal with a $13M mutual option for 2027. Edouard Julien was traded to the Rockies, clearing the way for Brooks Lee at shortstop.

Trade speculation continues around Pablo López and Joe Ryan, who form one of the AL's best frontline duos. If Minnesota isn't competitive early, expect one or both to be moved at the deadline. Top prospect Connor Prielipp (2025 Minor League Pitcher of the Year) could push for MLB time.

Projected Starting Lineup

Order Player Position Prop Notes
1 Austin Martin LF Former top prospect, speed
2 Brooks Lee SS Top prospect, first full season
3 Byron Buxton CF Elite tools, health question
4 Royce Lewis 3B Power bat, injury history
5 Josh Bell 1B 1-year signing, veteran bat
6 Trevor Larnach RF Power potential, needs consistency
7 Ryan Jeffers C Power-hitting catcher
8 Victor Caratini C Veteran catcher, $14M signing
9 James Outman DH Former Dodger, strikeout concerns

The lineup is loaded with potential but riddled with health concerns. Byron Buxton is an MVP-caliber talent when healthy, but staying on the field has been his career-long challenge. Royce Lewis has similar power but similar injury issues. Brooks Lee enters as the top prospect with a chance to be the face of the rebuild. Josh Bell provides veteran stability at first base on a prove-it deal. This lineup could surprise if healthy, or crater if injuries strike again.

Projected Starting Rotation

Slot Pitcher Throws Prop Notes
SP1 Pablo López R All-Star, trade candidate
SP2 Joe Ryan R $6.1M deal, strikeout upside
SP3 Bailey Ober R Workhorse, control pitcher
SP4 Simeon Woods Richardson R Competing for spot
SP5 Zebby Matthews R Or Taj Bradley/Mick Abel

Pablo López and Joe Ryan form one of the AL's best 1-2 punches when healthy, but both could be traded if Minnesota falls out of contention early. Bailey Ober provides workhorse stability as the #3. The back end is a competition between Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews, Taj Bradley, and Mick Abel. Connor Prielipp, the 2025 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, could also push for time if the young arms struggle.

Bullpen & Closer Situation

Closer: Justin Topa enters 2026 as the primary ninth-inning option. The veteran brings experience and a power arm, though save opportunities may be limited on a rebuilding team projected for 70-75 wins.

Setup: Taylor Rogers returns to Minnesota on a $2M deal, providing lefty high-leverage experience. Cole Sands and Kody Funderburk offer right-handed depth with swing-and-miss potential.

Development: The bullpen will be a development opportunity for arms like Travis Adams, Pierson Ohl, and Eric Orze. If the Twins aren't competitive, expect veteran relievers to be traded for prospects at the deadline.

Prop Betting Angles

Byron Buxton Games Played: Buxton has elite 5-tool potential but can't stay healthy. The under on games played props is almost always valuable. If the number is 100, the under has strong historical backing.
Pablo López Strikeouts: López is an elite strikeout pitcher with All-Star stuff. If he logs 170+ innings before a potential trade, 180+ strikeouts are achievable. The over has value if the number is set at 160.
Brooks Lee Total Hits: As the top prospect getting everyday at-bats, Lee could produce 150+ hits in his first full season. His contact skills are advanced, and he'll bat near the top of the order. Target the over on hits props.
Joe Ryan Wins Total: Ryan will be excellent individually, but the Twins may not give him run support. The under on wins could be valuable despite his talent if Minnesota's offense struggles.
Royce Lewis Total Home Runs: Lewis has legitimate 30-homer power when healthy, but injuries have derailed his career. If the number is 18.5, the under is likely safer given health concerns, though the over has ceiling if he plays 130+ games.
Ryan Jeffers Home Runs: Jeffers is one of the better power-hitting catchers in baseball. His 20+ HR potential makes the over attractive if the number is set at 18.5 or lower.

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