Complete breakdown of the American League and National League Cy Young races. ERA, strikeout rates, WHIP, and betting value for every major contender.
Last updated: January 31, 2026
Tarik Skubal enters the 2026 season attempting to accomplish something only two pitchers in baseball history have achieved. Greg Maddux won four consecutive Cy Young awards from 1992 to 1995. Randy Johnson won four in a row from 1999 to 2002. A third straight award for Skubal would place him in that exclusive company and establish him as the dominant pitcher of his generation.
Skubal's 2025 season left no doubt about his status as the best pitcher in the American League. His 2.21 ERA led the league. His 241 strikeouts led the league. His 33 walks were the fewest among qualified starters. His 0.89 WHIP set a modern era record for pitchers with 190 or more innings. Every metric pointed to a pitcher operating at the peak of his abilities.
The complication for Skubal and bettors is his contract situation. He enters the final year of his deal with Detroit, and the rebuilding Tigers have every incentive to trade him at the deadline for a prospect haul. A midseason trade would put Skubal in a new park, new league potentially, and disrupt the rhythm that has made him dominant. The trade uncertainty creates both risk and potential opportunity in the Cy Young market.
| Player | Team | Odds | 2025 Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | DET | +300 | 13-6, 2.21 ERA, 241 K, 33 BB, 0.89 WHIP |
| Garrett Crochet | BOS | +400 | Runner-up 2025, 4 first-place votes |
| Cole Ragans | KC | +800 | Breakout candidate |
| Corbin Burnes | ARI | +1000 | Former winner, new team |
| Logan Gilbert | SEA | +1200 | Elite stuff, run support issues |
| Tyler Glasnow | LAD | +1400 | Moved to NL |
Skubal's dominance in 2025 extended the trajectory he established in his first Cy Young campaign. His 33 walks in 195.1 innings represented a walk rate that ranked among the best single seasons in modern history. His ability to miss bats while also pounding the strike zone makes him nearly unhittable when everything is working.
The stuff grades elite across the board. His four-seam fastball sits 94-96 with movement that plays up. His slider generates swings and misses at an elite rate. His changeup has developed into a legitimate third pitch that keeps left-handed hitters off balance. The complete arsenal allows him to work through lineups multiple times without losing effectiveness.
At +300, you are getting a two-time winner at a price that reflects his status as the presumptive favorite. The value depends entirely on your view of the trade risk. If Skubal stays in Detroit for the full season, he is likely to produce another sub-2.50 ERA with 200+ strikeouts. If he gets traded, the adjustment period could cost him the consistency needed to win.
Our strikeout props guide breaks down the metrics that drive strikeout production. Skubal's K% and CSW% rank among the league leaders, making him a consistent target for season-long strikeout totals when those markets open.
Crochet emerged as a legitimate ace in his first season with Boston after being traded from the White Sox. His four first-place votes and 26 second-place votes demonstrated that voters saw him as a genuine contender, not merely a distant runner-up. The left-hander's arsenal plays up in Fenway, where his ability to handle both left-handed and right-handed hitters makes him a complete pitcher.
The question with Crochet is whether his 2025 performance represents his ceiling or a stepping stone to something even better. He had never pitched a full major league season before, so the workload was new. Now with a year of experience at the starter level, the natural expectation is continued development. His stuff grades out among the best in baseball, and the Red Sox have built a lineup that provides run support.
At +400, Crochet offers value as the clear alternative if Skubal falters or gets traded. The Red Sox are positioned to contend in the AL East, giving Crochet the team context that often influences Cy Young voting. A 200-strikeout season with a sub-3.00 ERA would make him a serious threat.
Ragans established himself as one of the most improved pitchers in baseball over the past two seasons. His strikeout rate has climbed each year, and his control has tightened to the point where he rarely beats himself with walks. The Royals' surprising competitiveness in 2025 gave Ragans a platform, and a deeper playoff run in 2026 would only elevate his profile.
The +800 price offers significant value if you believe Ragans takes another step forward. His stuff grades out as ace-level on the best nights, and the consistency has been the only question mark. A full season of front-of-rotation production would put him in the Cy Young conversation regardless of what happens with Skubal.
Paul Skenes enters 2026 as the best young pitcher in baseball and the favorite to win his second consecutive Cy Young award. His 2025 campaign was historically unprecedented for a pitcher his age. The 1.97 ERA. The unanimous Cy Young selection with all 30 first-place votes. The career 1.96 ERA that ranks as the lowest for any pitcher in the Live Ball Era with his number of innings. Skenes is not merely good for his age. He is dominant by any standard.
The depth behind Skenes creates interesting value opportunities. Yoshinobu Yamamoto dominated the 2025 World Series for the Dodgers and has the stuff to win a Cy Young if Skenes slips. Chris Sale won the 2024 NL Cy Young at age 35 and could make another run if his velocity holds. Shohei Ohtani posted a 2.87 ERA in his 14 starts, raising the question of whether a part-time pitcher could ever win the award.
| Player | Team | Odds | 2025 Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | PIT | +250 | 1.97 ERA, 216 K, 187.2 IP, unanimous |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | +500 | World Series MVP, elite stuff |
| Chris Sale | ATL | +800 | 2024 NL Cy Young winner |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | +1000 | Consistent elite production |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | +1500 | 2.87 ERA in 14 starts |
| Jacob deGrom | TEX | +2000 | Age 38, health questions |
Skenes' 2025 season demanded comparisons to the greatest pitcher seasons in baseball history. His 1.97 ERA ranked second in the National League behind only a statistical anomaly from a reliever. His 216 strikeouts in 187.2 innings represented a strikeout rate that would be elite for any pitcher, let alone one in his age-23 season. The unanimous Cy Young selection with all 30 first-place votes reflected the consensus that he was the best pitcher in the league by a significant margin.
The historical context is staggering. Skenes' career 1.96 ERA ranks as the lowest for any pitcher in the Live Ball Era since 1920 with his number of innings. Only one other pitcher in history won Rookie of the Year and Cy Young in consecutive seasons: Dwight Gooden. Skenes is operating on a plane that few pitchers have ever reached, and he is doing it before his 24th birthday.
His stuff is generational. The fastball sits 98-100 with late life that hitters consistently swing under. His sweeper generates swings and misses at an elite rate. His changeup has developed into a weapon against left-handed hitters. The complete package makes him nearly unhittable when everything is working, which has been most nights.
At +250, you are paying a premium for the best young pitcher in baseball. The value depends on your view of regression. Can anyone maintain a sub-2.00 ERA across a full season? History suggests it is incredibly difficult. But Skenes has shown no signs of slowing down, and the Pirates have every reason to manage his workload carefully to protect their franchise asset.
Yamamoto announced himself to American audiences with a dominant World Series performance in 2025. His ability to rise to the moment and deliver on the biggest stage demonstrated the mental makeup that scouts always believed he possessed. The Dodgers leaned on him heavily in October, and he rewarded their trust with performances that will define his legacy.
The regular season numbers were strong but not Cy Young caliber. His 2.74 expected ERA suggested underlying performance that was even better than his actual results. The Dodgers' loaded offense provides run support that could lead to more wins, which historically influences Cy Young voting even though it should not.
At +500, Yamamoto offers value as the second-favorite if Skenes regresses or misses time. The Dodgers are positioned as World Series favorites again, giving Yamamoto the team context needed for individual awards. A 200-inning season with a sub-2.75 ERA would make him a legitimate contender.
Ohtani's 2025 pitching performance raised an interesting hypothetical: could a part-time pitcher win the Cy Young? His 2.87 ERA in 14 starts was legitimately excellent, ranking among the best marks in the National League. The issue is the workload. Cy Young voters have historically rewarded volume alongside quality, and 14 starts falls well short of the 30+ that ace-level starters typically make.
The +1500 price reflects the near impossibility of winning Cy Young without a full season of starts. Even if Ohtani posted a 2.00 ERA in his limited appearances, voters would likely favor a pitcher who made twice as many starts and accumulated more WAR. This is more of a novelty bet than a serious value play, but it creates an interesting hedge for those who believe Ohtani could dominate if given a full workload.
Sale proved in 2024 that he still had ace-level stuff at age 35. The question entering 2026 is whether he can sustain that level at age 36 with the injury history that has defined his career. When healthy, Sale remains one of the most difficult pitchers to hit in baseball. His slider generates swings and misses at an elite rate, and his command has improved with age.
At +800, Sale offers value for those who believe he can repeat his 2024 performance. The Braves are positioned to contend, giving him the team context needed for individual awards. The risk is that his body breaks down again, which has happened repeatedly throughout his career. This is a high-risk, high-reward bet on an aging pitcher with elite stuff.
The Cy Young markets reward patience and opportunistic betting. The favorites rarely offer value in January, but midseason developments create windows for smart bettors. An injury to Skubal or Skenes would dramatically shift the odds landscape. A pitcher catching fire in May or June could see his odds shorten from +2000 to +400 before voters start paying attention.
Strikeout props connect directly to Cy Young performance. Pitchers who lead the league in strikeouts often finish in the top three of Cy Young voting. Our strikeout props strategy guide breaks down the metrics that predict strikeout production and identifies pitchers positioned for career years.
For the American League, the clear strategy is monitoring the Skubal trade situation. If he gets dealt at the deadline, his odds will likely drift, creating buying opportunities. Garrett Crochet at +400 offers the best value as the clear alternative. Cole Ragans at +800 is the lottery ticket on a breakout candidate.
For the National League, Paul Skenes at +250 is expensive but probably accurate given his dominance. The value plays are Yoshinobu Yamamoto at +500 and Chris Sale at +800. Both are capable of Cy Young production if Skenes regresses or misses time.
Like MVP voting, Cy Young ballots are submitted after the regular season ends but before the postseason begins. The Baseball Writers' Association of America members submit ranked ballots with five candidates. Results are announced in November alongside the other major awards.
Two BBWAA members from each city vote for the Cy Young award. Each voter submits a ranked ballot with five candidates. First-place votes receive 7 points, second-place receives 4 points, third receives 3 points, fourth receives 2 points, and fifth receives 1 point. The pitcher with the most total points wins.
Several pitchers have won consecutive Cy Young awards. Greg Maddux won four straight from 1992-1995. Randy Johnson won four straight from 1999-2002. Roger Clemens, Sandy Koufax, Denny McLain, and others have won back-to-back. Tarik Skubal is attempting to join this exclusive group with a third consecutive award in 2026.
Relief pitchers can win Cy Young but it is extremely rare. Eric Gagne won in 2003 and Dennis Eckersley won in 1992. The last reliever to seriously contend was Liam Hendriks in 2020. Voters overwhelmingly favor starting pitchers due to their higher innings totals and greater impact on team success.