Key Offseason Changes
The Padres enter 2026 having lost more than they gained, creating a compelling contraction storyline in a loaded NL West. Dylan Cease departed to the Blue Jays on a massive $210M deal, while Yu Darvish announced his retirement, ripping two key rotation pieces away. Luis Arraez also left via free agency, eliminating one of baseball's best contact hitters from the lineup.
On the additions side, San Diego retained ace Michael King on a three-year, $75M extension and signed Korean superstar Sung-Mun Song to a four-year, $15M contract with opt-outs. Song hit .315/.387/.530 with 26 homers for the Kiwoom Heroes, though an oblique injury has already sidelined him for four weeks heading into spring training. The bullpen got a major boost with the addition of Mason Miller, giving San Diego one of the most dominant closers in baseball.
With a $220M payroll virtually unchanged from 2025, the Padres have limited flexibility. A.J. Preller is reportedly exploring trades of Nick Pivetta to create cap space for a potential Framber Valdez signing, though nothing has materialized yet.
Projected Starting Lineup
| Order | Player | Position | Prop Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson Merrill | CF | 2025 ROY finalist, emerging power |
| 2 | Manny Machado | 3B | Elite RBI opportunities batting 2nd |
| 3 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | RF | 40/40 upside when healthy |
| 4 | Xander Bogaerts | SS | Bounce-back candidate at premium position |
| 5 | Jake Cronenworth | 2B | Switch-hitter, consistent producer |
| 6 | Sung-Mun Song | 1B | Korean import, power potential (oblique injury) |
| 7 | Ramon Laureano | LF | Defensive upgrade, platoon bat |
| 8 | Freddy Fermin | C | New starter behind the plate |
| 9 | Gavin Sheets | DH | LH power bat, platoon DH |
The lineup remains anchored by the Machado-Tatis-Bogaerts core, but questions linger elsewhere. First base is essentially a vacant hole, with Sung-Mun Song the presumed starter but already nursing an oblique injury. Jackson Merrill's breakout 2025 campaign positions him as a key table-setter, though regression could occur. The catching situation has Freddy Fermin starting with Luis Campusano (out of options) fighting for the backup role.
Projected Starting Rotation
| Slot | Pitcher | Throws | Prop Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP1 | Michael King | R | Ace after $75M extension, strikeout upside |
| SP2 | Nick Pivetta | R | Trade candidate, high K rate but volatile |
| SP3 | Joe Musgrove | R | Returning from TJ surgery, full go for ST |
| SP4 | Randy Vasquez | R | Emerging arm, limited track record |
| SP5 | JP Sears | L | Acquired from Oakland, deceptive lefty |
The rotation looks formidable at the top with King, Pivetta, and a healthy Musgrove, but the back end is where problems emerge. Losing Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish gutted the depth, leaving Randy Vasquez and JP Sears as question marks. Pivetta's $20.5M salary makes him a prime trade chip if Preller wants to chase a bigger arm. Marco Gonzales is in camp on a minor league deal as rotation insurance.
Bullpen & Closer Situation
Closer: Mason Miller inherited the role and brings elite-tier stuff. The former Oakland Athletic features triple-digit velocity with a devastating slider, making him one of the most dominant late-inning arms in baseball. Save opportunities should be plentiful if the Padres stay competitive.
Setup: Jeremiah Estrada handles the 8th inning with a power arm that misses bats. Yuki Matsui provides a lefty option with crossover appeal, while Adrian Morejon adds depth with swing-and-miss stuff. Jason Adam is currently dealing with an injury (listed as Out).
Middle Relief: Wandy Peralta serves as the experienced veteran arm capable of getting lefties out. The bullpen overall is a strength, assuming Mason Miller stays healthy and continues dominating at elite levels.