Best MLB Props Today May 24, 2026: Gray and Singer Strikeout Unders, a Weathers Over
The May 24 board is a full 16-game Sunday slate, and the strikeout model surfaced a tight three-play card built entirely on real FanDuel pitcher strikeout lines. The analyzer pulled every confirmed probable starter, projected each one with a Poisson model anchored to verified 2026 season strikeout rates, and ranked the board by expected value. What survived the filter: Sonny Gray under 5.5 strikeouts at -130, Brady Singer under 4.5 strikeouts at -140, and Ryan Weathers over 5.5 strikeouts at -112, all priced at FanDuel. The first-inning market is covered too, and the honest read there is that there is no NRFI edge to buy today.
Fast Card
Verdict: Gray under 5.5 is the headline because the model makes the under 82.3 percent on a pitcher whose 6.75 strikeouts-per-nine rate projects to under four strikeouts per start, more than a full strikeout below the posted line. Singer under 4.5 is the same contact-arm structure against a low-strikeout St. Louis lineup, and the model has it at 74.4 percent. Weathers over 5.5 is the lone over, a genuine swing-and-miss arm at 10.91 strikeouts per nine whose projection clears the line by more than a full strikeout even against a tough opponent.
The morning snapshot covered all 16 MLB games and 28 confirmed pitcher strikeout markets from the FanDuel public board, plus the first-inning run market on every game. Each starter was projected with a Poisson model using 2026 strikeouts per start, then filtered to a minimum four-start sample and ranked by expected value against the live FanDuel price.
The Board, Ranked
The Sunday theme is a pair of contact-oriented arms the market is pricing as if they miss more bats than they do, plus one true strikeout pitcher whose over is still live at a fair number. Gray and Singer are pitch-to-contact starters whose strikeout means sit below their posted lines, and Weathers is the swing-and-miss exception the model still likes over the total.
| Rank | Play | Game | Model Prob | Fair Odds | Live Price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sonny Gray under 5.5 strikeouts | Twins @ Red Sox | 82.3% | -465 | -130 FanDuel | +45.6% |
| 2 | Brady Singer under 4.5 strikeouts | Cardinals @ Reds | 74.4% | -291 | -140 FanDuel | +27.6% |
| 3 | Ryan Weathers over 5.5 strikeouts | Rays @ Yankees | 67.0% | -203 | -112 FanDuel | +26.8% |
Card order on the ticket weights Gray at two units as the widest edge on the board, Singer at 1.5 units, and Weathers at one unit because its opponent introduces real variance. The Avg Odds column above is derived from each play's model probability converted back to an American fair price, so the gap between the fair number and the live FanDuel price is the literal definition of the edge.
Why Gray Leads
Sonny Gray is the confirmed Boston starter against Minnesota at Fenway Park, and he is the cleanest model-versus-market read on the entire Sunday board. Through eight starts in 2026 he carries a 2.93 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP, but the number that matters for this prop is his strikeout rate. Gray has 30 strikeouts across 40 innings, a 6.75 strikeouts-per-nine mark that maps to a Poisson projection of roughly 3.75 strikeouts per outing. That is well under the 5.5 line FanDuel posted.
The matchup reinforces the under rather than fighting it. The Minnesota lineup strikes out at a 22.7 percent clip, right in the middle of the league, not the kind of high-whiff offense that would inflate a starter's strikeout total. Gray has shifted toward a soft-contact, pitch-efficient profile this season, the type of arm that works deep into games without piling up strikeouts. The model makes the under 82.3 percent against a de-vigged market read closer to 54 percent. That is the widest gap on the Sunday board, which is why it is the two-unit headline at -130.
Singer Is The Textbook Contact Under
Brady Singer is the confirmed Cincinnati starter against St. Louis, and he is the structure the under model is built to find. Singer has been hit hard in 2026, sitting at a 6.26 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP across ten starts, but the strikeout prop is its own question and the answer is the same: he does not miss many bats. He has 34 strikeouts in 46 innings, a 6.65 strikeouts-per-nine rate that projects to roughly 3.4 strikeouts per start against a 4.5 line.
The opponent makes it cleaner. St. Louis owns one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball at 20.9 percent, the fourth-most contact-heavy lineup in the league. A low-strikeout pitcher against a low-strikeout offense is the exact combination that suppresses a prop total, and the model makes the under 74.4 percent. FanDuel is asking -140, which is still well short of the -291 fair number the model produces. The price is the reason this is a 1.5-unit play rather than a headline, but the edge is real.
Weathers Is The Over The Model Still Likes
Ryan Weathers is the confirmed New York Yankees starter against Tampa Bay, and he is the one true strikeout arm on this card. The left-hander has quietly been excellent in 2026, posting a 3.58 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over nine starts, with 61 strikeouts in just over 50 innings. That works out to a 10.91 strikeouts-per-nine rate and a projection of roughly 6.78 strikeouts per outing, more than a full strikeout above the 5.5 line.
The honest caveat is the opponent. Tampa Bay has the lowest strikeout rate in the major leagues at 18.7 percent, a disciplined, contact-first lineup that will fight to keep a starter's strikeout total down. That headwind is exactly why this is a one-unit over rather than a bigger play, even though the raw edge grades at +26.8 percent. The model still makes the over 67.0 percent because Weathers misses enough bats that even a tougher matchup leaves his projection clear of the line, and the -112 price is fair enough to bet through that variance.
The Strikeout Names The Model Faded
Dylan Cease is the best pure strikeout arm on the slate, the Toronto starter against Pittsburgh with a 13.19 strikeouts-per-nine rate and 84 strikeouts in 57 innings. His over 7.5 strikeouts at -152 is tempting, but the model makes it only 60.1 percent, essentially a coin flip once the price is paid, for a thin negative-EV read at the captured number. FanDuel set the line high enough to respect exactly how good Cease is, which is why there is no edge to chase on his prop today.
Shota Imanaga is the same story. The Cubs left-hander carries a 3.38 ERA and a 9.36 strikeouts-per-nine rate, but FanDuel posted his over 5.5 at -150 and the model only makes it 56 percent, a negative-EV over at that price. When the market prices a strikeout pitcher correctly, there is no value to manufacture, and the card moves to the contact arms the books got wrong.
The First-Inning Read: No NRFI Edge Today
The first-inning market gets the same treatment as the strikeout board, and the honest finding is that there is nothing to buy on the no-run side today. Every NRFI price on the FanDuel board is juiced toward the no-run outcome, ranging from -111 in the Nationals-Braves opener up to -400 in Astros-Cubs. A transparent first-inning model built from each team's 2026 first-inning scoring rate and each starter's first-inning run-allowed splits puts the actual no-run probability in the 27 to 49 percent range across the slate, well below what those prices imply.
In plain terms, the books have priced these first innings as quiet when the model sees them as far more likely to produce a run. The single largest disagreement is Astros-Cubs, where FanDuel implies an 80 percent no-run probability but the model sees closer to 37 percent, which is a YRFI lean rather than the NRFI the price suggests. None of the YRFI prices clear the official-card EV threshold cleanly enough to add as a tracked play, so the disciplined call is to pass the entire first-inning market and let the three strikeout rows carry the card.
| Game | FanDuel No-Run | Implied NRFI | Model NRFI | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros @ Cubs | -400 | 80.0% | 37.4% | YRFI lean, no NRFI value |
| Twins @ Red Sox | -385 | 79.4% | 45.1% | Overpriced NRFI, pass |
| Pirates @ Blue Jays | -132 | 56.9% | 38.6% | Closest to fair, still no edge |
Price Discipline
The card is only as good as the captured number. Each of these three rows is priced inside the model's fair odds, so the edge is the distance between the live FanDuel price and the fair number below. The cleanest way to use the board is to compare the live price against the model's fair odds before locking the bet, and to pass if a line drifts through the fair number on the wrong side.
| Play | Captured Price | Model Fair Odds | Practical Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gray under 5.5 strikeouts | -130 FanDuel | -465 | Strongest row on the card; still strong down to roughly -200. |
| Singer under 4.5 strikeouts | -140 FanDuel | -291 | Solid through normal movement; recheck if it pushes past -175. |
| Weathers over 5.5 strikeouts | -112 FanDuel | -203 | Lone over; trim or pass if the price climbs past -140 given the Rays matchup. |
Verified Pitcher Board
| Metric | Sonny Gray (BOS) | Brady Singer (CIN) | Ryan Weathers (NYY) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchup | vs Twins, Fenway Park | vs Cardinals, Cincinnati | vs Rays, Yankee Stadium |
| 2026 starts | 8 | 10 | 9 |
| ERA | 2.93 | 6.26 | 3.58 |
| Strikeouts per 9 | 6.75 | 6.65 | 10.91 |
| WHIP | 1.13 | 1.70 | 1.13 |
| Model K projection | 3.75 | 3.40 | 6.78 |
| Opponent K rate | 22.7% | 20.9% | 18.7% |
| Posted line / price | Under 5.5 at -130 FD | Under 4.5 at -140 FD | Over 5.5 at -112 FD |
Stats are 2026 season figures pulled live from the MLB Stats API; opponent strikeout rates are 2026 team hitting rates. Lines and prices are from the FanDuel public board on the morning of May 24.
Source Log
Odds came from the FanDuel public sportsbook board, captured the morning of May 24. Probable starters were confirmed from the same board and cross-checked against MLB.com. Strikeout projections used 2026 season pitching stats pulled live from the MLB Stats API and a Poisson model on strikeouts per start. The first-inning read used 2026 team first-inning scoring splits and starter first-inning run-allowed splits from the MLB Stats API against the live FanDuel no-run prices.
- Live FanDuel pitcher prop and first-inning board:
sbapi.il.sportsbook.fanduel.com(16 games) - 2026 season pitching stats: MLB Stats API
- First-inning splits: MLB Stats API team and player statSplits, situation code i01
- Probable starters cross-check: MLB.com Probable Pitchers
- Ranked model output: Poisson strikeout projections plus first-inning run model, scored against the live FanDuel board