MLB Props Picks Today

Board Date · August 22, 2026

August 22 was the widest board this desk has run in weeks: fifty five contracts priced across all fifteen games, twenty eight strikeout markets and twenty seven pitcher outs markets, and seven graded playable. Every one of the seven is a strikeout contract. Patrick Sandoval under 5.5 strikeouts, +100 with the over at -128, San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox, Fenway Park, 7:15 PM ET, opposite Blade Tidwell, is the largest edge at plus 8.12 percentage points. Sandoval has 35 strikeouts in 34.0 innings across seven starts since July 9, a 9.26 per nine rate on a 4.76 earned run average and a 1.85 WHIP, and he has struck out 21.9 percent of the 160 hitters he has faced. That rate puts a sixth strikeout near the twenty seventh batter, and his batters faced by start read 19, 23, 22, 22, 23, 27 and 24. Five of the seven starts finished at five strikeouts or fewer, 71.4 percent against a break-even of 50.0, and his season high is seven. The honest counterpoint is loud. Seven starts is a thin file, San Francisco whiffs in 23.5 percent of its plate appearances against left-handers, a higher rate than eighteen other clubs, and a 1.85 WHIP is the exact mechanism that stretches a start to twenty seven hitters. Six more contracts graded playable. Gabriel Hughes over 3.5 at +144 at plus 7.92 points, with the over landing in 3 of 3 Coors Field starts and 1 of 4 on the road. Dylan Cease under 8.5 at -115 at plus 6.53, a model call his own log argues with at 11 of 23 against a Yankees lineup that whiffs 24.7 percent against right-handers, third highest in baseball. Cody Bradford under 4.5 at +112 at plus 4.15 on a three start file. David Peterson under 4.5 at -130 at plus 3.60, with the under landing in 6 of his 8 starts since joining the Cubs. Jacob Lopez under 4.5 at -102 at plus 3.57 against a Houston lineup that whiffs only 20.5 percent against lefties, fifth lowest in baseball. Hunter Brown under 6.5 at -148 at plus 3.11, landing in 8 of the 11 starts since he returned on June 16. Three contracts were cut. Jared Jones over 4.5 at -122 needs 55.0 percent and clears in 7 of 14 starts, exactly 50.0. Shane McClanahan over 4.5 at +104 needs 49.0 percent and clears in 9 of 21, 42.9, with the over landing once in his last five. Ryan Johnson over 3.5 at -156 needs 60.9 percent and clears in 6 of 12, 50.0. All twenty seven pitcher outs contracts graded no bet, the best of them Luis Castillo under 17.5 at minus 0.06 percentage points, and no first-inning market was priced anywhere in the pull, so both sections publish as documented passes. Analysis only, no tracked units. Full board breakdown with the research charts and market table.

August 20 GRADED: deGrom over 5.5 WON at 10 K over 6.0 innings, +0.80u notional. The board produced exactly one playable contract out of twelve, and this board is not going to invent a second one. Jacob deGrom over 5.5 strikeouts, -125 with the under at -102, Washington Nationals at Texas Rangers, Globe Life Field, 8:05 PM ET, opposite Andrew Alvarez. deGrom has 147 strikeouts in 120.2 innings across 23 starts, a 10.96 per nine rate that ranks eleventh among the 129 pitchers with fifteen or more starts, behind a 3.95 earned run average and a 1.17 WHIP. He has cleared 5.5 in 15 of 23 starts, 65.2 percent against a break-even of 55.6, and in 9 of his 11 starts at Globe Life Field, where his rate is 11.45 per nine against 10.47 on the road and his earned run average is 2.93 against 5.01. Over his last four starts he threw 322 pitches for 41 swinging strikes, 12.7 percent, with a 97.7 four-seam at 43.2 percent usage and a 91.8 slider at 38.5 percent finishing all nineteen of his strikeouts in that span. The honest counterpoint is loud. Those same four starts averaged 3.7 innings, his last five averaged 4.0 innings and 19.4 hitters faced, and on August 13 in Anaheim he was pulled after facing one hitter in the third on 53 pitches. At his season rate of striking out 29.5 percent of the batters he faces, six strikeouts needs about twenty hitters. Washington also whiffs in only 20.7 percent of its plate appearances against right-handers, sixth lowest in baseball. There is no second read today. The pitcher outs board went 0 for 6, the closest being Kyle Bradish over 16.5 outs at -118 at plus 0.56 percentage points, Jacob deGrom over 15.5 outs at +164 at minus 0.07, and Gerrit Cole under 17.5 outs at +128 at minus 1.09, and no first-inning market was priced anywhere in the pull, so both sections publish as documented passes. Two strikeout contracts were cut. Grayson Rodriguez under 4.5 at -104 needs 51.0 percent, graded plus 1.77 percentage points and has stayed under in only 6 of 13 starts, 46.2 percent, once in his last five. Peter Lambert over 5.5 at -111 graded minus 0.94 because the de-vigged market already had the over at 49.6 percent and the blend landed at 51.7 against a 52.6 percent price. Analysis only, no tracked units. Full board breakdown with the research charts and market table.

August 18 leads with the contract that turns entirely on how long the starter is allowed to work. Braxton Ashcraft over 5.5 strikeouts, -122 with the under at -104, Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates, PNC Park, 6:40 PM ET, opposite Keider Montero. On August 13 in Miami, Ashcraft threw a nine-inning complete game on 85 pitches, 64 of them strikes, and struck out ten while facing 28 hitters. The three starts before that one ended after five innings on 69 pitches, five innings on 82, and six innings on 93. He has 155 strikeouts in 141.1 innings, a 9.87 per nine rate that ranks eleventh among the 57 qualified starters, behind a 3.82 earned run average and a 1.10 WHIP. He has cleared 5.5 in 14 of 24 starts, 58.3 percent against a break-even of 55.0, and in 7 of 11 at PNC Park where his rate climbs to 10.30 per nine. Over his last three starts he threw 236 pitches, a 97.4 four-seam at 30.1 percent and an 84.8 curveball at 25.0 percent, and finished his 20 strikeouts with four different pitches. Pittsburgh has a reason to let him work: three-inning starts on back to back days left four relievers covering six innings on August 16 and five relievers covering six more on August 17, with Kirby Yates and Camilo Doval both pitching on consecutive days. The honest counterpoint is loud. He has cleared 5.5 once in his last five turns, with totals of 2, 5, 5, 5 and 10, he comes in on four days rest after a complete game, and Detroit whiffs in a middling 22.3 percent of its plate appearances against right-handers. Jack Perkins over 3.5 at -156 is the second read, clearing in 9 of his 11 starts, 81.8 percent against a break-even of 60.9, on a 10.36 per nine rate across 81.2 innings, with a 4.61 inning average workload and a Kansas City lineup that whiffs 21.0 percent of the time against right-handers as the argument against. Two of the four playable contracts were cut. Ryan Feltner over 3.5 at +114 needs 46.7 percent and clears in 7 of 18 starts, 38.9 percent, with three, two and two in his last three, at Coors Field against a Dodgers lineup that strikes out less than all but four clubs. Cristian Javier over 4.5 at -113 needs 53.1 percent and has never reached five strikeouts in a 2026 start, 0 of 6, with two strikeouts in each of his last two turns. No pitcher outs contract cleared out of the 22 priced, the closest being Zack Wheeler under 17.5 at plus 1.53 percentage points, and no first-inning market was posted anywhere on the fifteen-game slate, so both sections publish as passes. Analysis only, no tracked units. Full board breakdown with the research charts and market table.

August 17 leads with the contract whose price is built on a count that could not have won. Mason Barnett over 3.5 strikeouts, plus 112 with the under at -142, Athletics at Kansas City Royals, Kauffman Stadium, 7:40 PM ET, opposite Michael Wacha. Barnett has struck out four or more hitters in four of seventeen appearances, and fourteen of those seventeen were relief outings of two innings or fewer in which four strikeouts was arithmetically unavailable. He has started three games at this level, on July 30, August 6 and August 11, producing six, seven and zero strikeouts on 73, 82 and 67 pitches. The rate underneath is real: 36 strikeouts in 167 batters faced, 21.6 percent, which across the nineteen hitters a 4.44-inning start reaches projects 4.1 strikeouts against a line of 3.5. The rest of his profile is bad and it matters here, a 6.16 earned run average, a 1.45 WHIP, 20 walks in those 167 hitters and eleven home runs in 38 innings, because short outings and high pitch counts are the shape a strikeout over needs. The honest counterpoint is loud. His most recent start produced no strikeouts at all across four innings and 67 pitches, and Kansas City strikes out in only 21.28 percent of its plate appearances, 24th of the 30 clubs. Tomoyuki Sugano over 2.5 at -156 is the second read, landing in 14 of 21 starts, 66.7 percent against a break-even of 60.9, from a pitcher with a mild 13.9 percent strikeout rate whose number is set low enough to compensate, with Coors Field and a Dodgers lineup that whiffs 20.58 percent of the time as the argument against. Two of the four playable contracts were cut. Bailey Ober over 3.5 at even money clears in 7 of 18 starts, 38.9 percent against a 50.0 percent break-even, and he threw six innings on 74 pitches against Cleveland on August 6 without a strikeout. Martin Perez under 3.5 at -108 lands in 9 of 19, 47.4 percent against 51.9, from a pitcher with a 2.96 earned run average whose strikeout distribution runs high often enough to break the under. No pitcher outs contract cleared out of the ten priced, the closest being Sugano over 15.5 at plus one tenth of a percentage point, and no first-inning market was posted anywhere on the eleven-game slate, so both sections publish as passes. Analysis only, no tracked units. Full board breakdown with the research charts and market table.

August 16 leads with the contract whose underlying strikeout rate clears the number by more than any other on the board. Sean Burke over 5.5 strikeouts, -125 on DraftKings with the under at -102, Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, Comerica Park, 1:40 PM ET, opposite Drew Anderson. Burke has 152 strikeouts in 135.2 innings behind a 2.99 earned run average and a 1.08 walks and hits per inning. He has struck out 27.6 percent of the 550 hitters he has faced and averages 22.9 batters faced per outing, which projects 6.33 strikeouts against a line of 5.5, and he has cleared the number in 14 of his 24 outings and in 10 of his last 12. The recent log is loud: 11 strikeouts against Cleveland on July 4, 10 against Houston on July 25, 10 against the Yankees on July 30, and 8 in seven innings against Cincinnati on August 11 on 94 pitches with no walks. His four-seam fastball sits at 37.5 percent usage and 94.9 mph, his knuckle curve at 20.7 percent and 79.5, a fifteen mile per hour separation he goes to for the swing. The honest counterpoint is loud. Counting only his 20 listed starts he is 11 of 20, 55.0 percent, against a break-even of 55.6, so the season-long count sits on top of the price rather than above it. His road hit rate is 5 of 10 and Detroit strikes out in a middling 22.6 percent of its plate appearances, 13th of the 30 clubs. Michael Soroka over 4.5 at -104 is the second read, clearing in 10 of 16 starts against a 51.0 percent break-even, with the caveat that he has thrown 4.1 innings since June 19. Three of the seven model-flagged contracts were cut. Drew Anderson over 4.5 fell to the swingman filter: he has 4 starts in 42 appearances, 9.5 percent, has never recorded more than 14 outs in a game and averages 7.3 batters faced per appearance. Tarik Skubal over 7.5 clears in only 7 of 18 starts, 38.9 percent against a 46.3 percent break-even, with 6, 6 and 6 in his last three. Noah Cameron under 5.5 lands in 13 of 22, 59.1 percent against 60.9, from a pitcher who has thrown eight innings twice in his last three turns. Dean Kremer over 4.5 and Jake Irvin over 4.5 both clear on paper and are listed as too thin to headline, Kremer on a nine-start sample and Irvin on a form line of 0 for his last 3 with 8 strikeouts in 13.2 innings. No pitcher outs contract and no first-inning contract cleared out of the 39 evaluated, so both sections publish as passes. Analysis only, no tracked units. Graded 1-1, net notional -0.25u: Sean Burke 2 K over 4.1 innings in the White Sox's 7-5 win at Detroit (over 5.5 lost, -1.25u), Michael Soroka 5 K over 5.2 innings in Arizona's 3-5 loss at Atlanta (over 4.5 won, +1.00u). Drew Anderson, the contract the swingman filter cut, struck out 5 over 5.0 innings and would have cleared his 4.5. Analysis only, no tracked units, season record unchanged. Full board breakdown with the research charts and market table.

August 15 leads with the only contract on the board that survived a check against the pitcher's own game log. Logan Webb under 5.5 strikeouts, -128 on FanDuel with the over at even money, Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, Oracle Park, 4:05 PM ET, opposite Michael Lorenzen. Webb has landed under the number in 13 of his 21 starts, 61.9 percent, against a price that needs 56.1 percent to break even, and the split holds everywhere: 7 of 11 at Oracle Park, 6 of 10 when he pitches into the seventh inning, and 5 of 6 when he throws 100 pitches or more. On August 9 he worked eight innings against Detroit on 100 pitches and struck out two. He has 103 strikeouts in 133.0 innings, a 6.97 rate per nine, and his sinker at 29.7 percent usage plus his changeup at 24.9 percent account for more than half of the 1,985 pitches he has thrown. Both of his starts against Colorado this season stayed under, 5 strikeouts on May 29 and 2 on July 3. The honest counterpoint is loud. Colorado strikes out in 22.6 percent of its plate appearances, 11th most in baseball, and Webb struck out 8 Texas hitters on 96 pitches on August 3, his season high, twelve days ago. Eight of the nine model-flagged contracts were cut. Grant Holmes under 3.5 is the widest miss, landing under in only 6 of 22 starts against a price needing 46.7 percent. Troy Melton over 5.5 clears in 4 of 13. Jacob Misiorowski under 8.5 lands in 9 of 22 from a pitcher with 204 strikeouts in 133.0 innings. Randy Dobnak fell to the workload filter with 19 strikeouts in 36.0 innings across five starts. Michael McGreevy over 3.5 and Jared Jones over 4.5 both sit below their break-evens, Ian Seymour's under 6.5 rests on a role that changed two starts ago, and Connor Prielipp over 5.5 was too thin to publish. All 25 pitcher outs contracts graded negative, and no first-inning contract was priced on the board at all, so both sections publish as passes. Graded 0-1, net notional -1.28u: Logan Webb struck out 7 over 6.0 innings in the Giants' 7-1 win over Colorado (under 5.5 lost, -1.28u at -128). Full board breakdown with the research charts and market table.

August 11 leads with the read the model ranked last on its own board. Nolan McLean over 5.5 strikeouts, -154 on FanDuel with the under at plus 120, New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, Truist Park, 7:15 PM ET, opposite Martin Perez. McLean has struck out six or more hitters in 18 of his 23 starts this season, a 78.3 percent rate, and in 7 of his last 8, against a price that needs 60.6 percent to break even. His curveball, thrown 14.6 percent of the time at 82.0 mph, misses bats on 41.2 percent of swings. The situation reinforces it: New York used catcher Luis Torrens for two full innings of relief on August 8, then five pitchers on August 10, and a 53-67 club with a gassed bullpen does not shorten a healthy rookie's leash. The honest counterpoint is loud. Atlanta strikes out in only 21.51 percent of its plate appearances, 19th in baseball and 21.14 percent at home, and McLean has already split his two looks at this lineup, 6 strikeouts on June 12 and 5 on July 5. Kyle Harrison over 5.5 strikeouts, the second read: plus 114 on FanDuel with the under at -146, Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres, Petco Park, 9:40 PM ET, opposite Walker Buehler. Harrison struck out 10 Pirates against just 16 batters faced on August 5 in his first start off the injured list, capped at 69 pitches after left forearm tightness cost him nearly a month. Seven of the nine model-flagged contracts were cut. Both Drew Anderson markets fell to the swingman filter: he has 3 starts in 41 appearances and recorded 11 outs with zero strikeouts in his most recent one, while the model projected him 84.6 percent to clear 12.5 outs. Eury Perez over 6.5 (8 of 20 starts clear it, price needs 50 percent), Paul Skenes under 6.5 (9 of 24), Cristopher Sanchez under 5.5 (4 of 24) and Andre Pallante over 3.5 (11 of 22 at a 50 percent break-even) all failed their own game logs, and Nick Martinez was too thin to publish. No first-inning contract was priced on tonight's board at all, so that section publishes as a pass. Graded 0-2, net notional -2.54u: Nolan McLean 3 K over 6.0 innings in the Mets' 4-0 loss at Atlanta (over 5.5 lost, -1.54u), Kyle Harrison 3 K over 4.2 innings in Milwaukee's 11-2 loss at San Diego (over 5.5 lost, -1.00u). Analysis only, no tracked units, season record unchanged. Full board breakdown with the research charts and market table.

August 10 leads with a strikeout under from a pitcher who has already faced tonight's opponent twice this season. Reid Detmers under 6.5 strikeouts, -128 on DraftKings with FanDuel at plus 100, Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, Angel Stadium, 9:38 PM ET, opposite MacKenzie Gore. Detmers struck out fourteen Rangers over eight innings on May 24, then six over four innings against the same team on July 9, and 13 of his 23 starts this season have finished at six strikeouts or fewer, a rate that climbs to 5 of 8 across his last eight turns. His last three outings ran 5.1, 5.0 and 4.0 innings, each shorter than the one before it. The honest counterpoint is loud: this identical Texas lineup gave him the best start of his season, and Texas strikes out in 22.76 percent of its plate appearances, a shade above the 22.15 percent league mark. Michael Soroka under 4.5 strikeouts, the lean: plus 108 on DraftKings with FanDuel at -138, Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, Chase Field, 9:40 PM ET, opposite Gabriel Hughes. Soroka last pitched in the majors on June 19, exiting after 1.0 inning with a left glute strain, and has thrown exactly one game since, a 4.0-inning, 1-strikeout rehab start at Triple-A Reno on August 4. No first-inning market cleared the threshold today, so that section publishes as a pass. Graded 2-0, +2.08u notional: Detmers struck out 6 over 6.0 innings in the Angels' 1-4 loss to Texas (under 6.5 won, +1.00u), Soroka struck out 4 over 4.1 innings in Arizona's 9-0 win over Colorado (under 4.5 won, +1.08u). Full board breakdown with the research charts and market table.

August 9 is a first-inning play and the case is the ballpark rather than the arms. Tigers at Giants NRFI, the first-inning Under 0.5 at -146 on DraftKings with Pinnacle at -142, Oracle Park, 1:05 PT, Troy Melton opposite Logan Webb. Oracle Park has produced a scoreless opening frame in 35 of 55 games this season, 63.6 percent, against a league rate of 49.4 percent across 1,762 completed games, and the park has yielded 0.76 first-inning runs per game against a league figure of 1.07. Holding the roster constant makes the point cleanly: the same Giants team has seen a scoreless first in 63.6 percent of its 55 home games and 44.4 percent of its 63 road games. Melton has allowed four first-inning runs in twelve starts and never a second run in any of them, with four straight zeros since July 17; Webb is clean in 16 of 20, though eight of his ten first-inning runs came on July 3 and July 8. San Francisco scores in the first in 21.8 percent of its home games. The honest counterpoint is loud and it is stated on the page: strip the park out and the blend is 56.3 percent against a 59.3 percent break-even, so this is a moderate play rather than a hammer, and Detroit scores early in 41.7 percent of its road games. Strikeout model board, analysis only with no tracked units: Grayson Rodriguez under 4.5 at +118 (Angels at Marlins), Randy Dobnak over 2.5 at -132 (Cubs at Royals), Jared Jones over 5.5 at +118 (Mets at Pirates) as strong reads, and Brady Singer over 4.5 at -102 (Reds at Nationals) as the lean. Dobnak and Rodriguez were both on the August 4 board and both lost; that is disclosed, not buried. Graded: the NRFI won, +0.6849u on a 1-unit stake at -146. The strikeout board went 1-3, net notional -2.02u. Full NRFI breakdown with the park data, charts and market table.

August 7 leads with a strikeout over on a pitcher the market has repriced as a reliever. Carmen Mlodzinski over 3.5 strikeouts at +126, with the under at -162, Mets at Pirates at PNC Park, 6:40 ET, opposing Zac Thornton. Mlodzinski struck out eight of the twenty Mets he faced on March 29, in four and a third innings, and has not started a game since May 25; since June 1 he has made fourteen relief appearances, none longer than 4.0 innings or 76 pitches. His starter strikeout rate is 20.00 percent, 39 strikeouts in 44.0 innings across nine starts, five of which cleared tonight's 3.5, and New York strikes out in 22.67 percent of its plate appearances against the 22.15 percent league mark. Plus money means the ticket only needs 44.2 percent. The honest counterpoint is the workload: at sixteen batters faced that 20.00 percent rate projects 3.2 strikeouts and the ticket loses, and only the Pirates know the pitch limit. Three more STRONG grades round out the board: Robbie Ray under 4.5 at +122 against Houston, a workload read built on 57 walks in 122.2 innings and 10 unders in 21 starts even though his last three starts produced 6, 5 and 6; Ryan Feltner over 3.5 at +112 in St. Louis, 7 of 16 starts cleared, into the fourth lowest strikeout rate in baseball at 20.46 percent, and stated plainly, this same read lost as the August 1 headliner; and Noah Schultz over 3.5 at -130 against Cleveland, an 8.03 per nine rate on a 5.82 earned run average, with the caveat that he has not finished six innings in a start since May 1. Three leans, named and sized honestly: Nathan Eovaldi under 6.5 at +120, Parker Messick under 5.5 at +120, and Tyler Phillips over 4.5 at +130, the thinnest on the page at 2 clears in 12 starts. No first-inning market and no outs contract cleared, so both publish as passes. Separately, the BetLegend game card: Boston Red Sox run line -1.5 (-130, 1.5u), Rays and Mariners under 7 (-120, 1.5u), Cleveland Guardians moneyline (-138, 1u), Toronto Blue Jays team total under 3.5 (-147, 2u), Chicago Cubs moneyline (-165, 1.5u), and Detroit Tigers moneyline (-130, 2u). Full board breakdown plus the research charts and market table.

August 6 leads with a strikeout under from a pitcher who has already beaten tonight's exact lineup once this year. Cristopher Sanchez under 7.5 strikeouts at -148 on FanDuel, Nationals at Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, 6:05 ET, opposing Miles Mikolas. On June 25 Sanchez threw 92 pitches across five innings against this same Washington lineup and struck out six of his eighteen outs. His changeup misses bats 46.0 percent of the time it is swung at but gets thrown only 38.1 percent of the time, less than his .325-average sinker, and Washington strikes out in just 21.37 percent of its plate appearances, below the 22.16 percent league mark. He is under in 7 of his last 12 starts, right in line with the price. The honest counterpoint: he struck out 11 Baltimore hitters in six innings on August 1, his best outing since a 10-strikeout night against Toronto on June 8, and a repeat performance breaks this ticket early. Two more STRONG unders round out the board: Framber Valdez under 4.5 at +126 against Seattle, built on his 18.4 percent season strikeout rate even though his last two starts and his lone 2026 look at this Mariners lineup all went over; and Martin Perez under 3.5 at +124 against Miami, built on three straight starts under the number before his last one, even though he struck out 10 against this same Marlins lineup back on May 19. A lean, Kohl Drake over 3.5 at -138 against San Diego, rests on just three career starts. Two honest passes close the board: Janson Junk over 3.5 at -111, where a 3-strikeout look at these same Braves on May 20 undercuts the recent trend, and Ranger Suarez under 5.5 at +116, who sits almost exactly on his own season average while Chicago's above-average strikeout rate leans the other way. Separately, the BetLegend game card: Washington Nationals team total under 3.5 (-150, 2u, an alternate line off a 2.5 main), Tigers and Mariners under 7 (+100, 1u), Detroit Tigers team total under 3.5 (-110, 1u), and Boston Red Sox moneyline (-180, 1.5u). Full board breakdown plus the research charts and market table.

August 5 leads with the tracked BetLegend card, and the card is the only wagering content on the page. Pirates vs Brewers NRFI, first inning under 0.5 runs, at -150 for 2 units, American Family Field, 7:40 ET, Paul Skenes opposite Kyle Harrison. Two more card picks sit in the same game: Pirates and Brewers under 7 (-105, 1.5u) and Pittsburgh team total under 3.5 (-130, 1u). Harrison has thrown 17.0 first innings with a 2.65 earned run average, 19 strikeouts, 3 walks and a .190 average against, and three walks in 67 opening-frame hitters is what strangles early rallies. Skenes owns the harder half: 34 strikeouts in 96 first-inning batters faced, 35.4 percent, his best inning by rate, alongside 5 first-inning home runs and a 5.16 mark in the frame. The honest counterpoint is the base rate, because Pirates games have opened scoreless 53.0 percent of the time and Brewers games 53.1 percent against a price that needs 60.0 percent. The rest of the nine-pick card at its exact numbers: Red Sox ML (-131, 2u), Mariners ML (-146, 1u), Rangers ML (-156, 3u), Rays ML (-158, 1u), Athletics team total under 4.5 (-120, 2u) and Reds ML (-148, 2u). Separately, and not as picks: the strikeout analyzer priced 54 contracts and flagged 11 places where its number disagrees with the posted market, led by a model read that lands under Paul Skenes at 6.5. Skenes has struck out 156 of 512 hitters faced, 30.5 percent, and still averages 6.78 per start because he averages 22.26 batters faced; his road rate is 26.3 percent and Milwaukee whiffs 21.16 percent against right-handers. Arguing the other way, he has finished above 6.5 in 15 of 23 starts and struck out exactly 7 in each of his two looks at these Brewers. The other ten model disagreements cover Tomoyuki Sugano, Jake Irvin, Reid Detmers, Sean Burke, Andre Pallante, Bryce Elder, Jacob Lopez, Eric Lauer, Christian Scott and Eury Perez. All of that analyzer output is research only, with no units, no grades and no recommendations attached. Full card breakdown plus the research charts and market table.

August 4 headliner is a strikeout over from a rookie with four career starts, in the park everyone assumes kills strikeouts. Gabriel Hughes over 3.5 strikeouts at +106, Rays at Rockies at Coors Field, 8:40 ET, opposing Freddy Peralta. Hughes debuted on July 3 and has faced 99 big league hitters without allowing a home run; his four starts produced 7, 6, 5 and 2 strikeouts, an average of five against a 3.5 line, and he has struck out 20 of the 88 hitters he has faced as a starter, 22.7 percent. Both of his Coors starts cleared this number, and Colorado's staff has actually struck out more hitters at home this season, 18.4 percent, than on the road, 16.9 percent. Break-even at +106 is 48.5 percent and this is the widest of the 44 contracts evaluated. The honest counterpoint: four starts is not a sample, his last outing was 2 strikeouts in 5.0 innings at San Diego on July 29, and Tampa Bay owns the lowest strikeout rate in baseball at 19.1 percent plus the highest team average at .259. Behind it: Troy Melton over 5.5 at +106 in Seattle as a second strong grade, then four leans, MacKenzie Gore under 17.5 outs at -200, Tarik Skubal over 7.5 at +116, Randy Dobnak over 2.5 at -130 and Grayson Rodriguez under 5.5 at +122. Workload caveat stated on the page for both Hughes, 4 starts, and Dobnak, 3 starts in 26.0 innings at a 4.85 per nine rate. The BetLegend game card carries four picks at its exact numbers: Reds team total over 4.5 (-115, 2u), Reds ML (-129, 1.5u), Dodgers ML (-184, 3u), Mariners ML (-118, 1u). First-inning markets: no play cleared, pass, analysis only. Model results, 1 of 6 landed on the side the analyzer favoured: Gabriel Hughes 7 K over 5.1 innings in Colorado's 9-7 loss to Tampa Bay (over 3.5 landed), Troy Melton 4 K over 7.0 innings in Detroit's 8-0 win at Seattle (over 5.5 missed), MacKenzie Gore 18 outs in San Francisco's 5-4 loss at Texas (under 17.5 missed), Tarik Skubal 6 K over 6.0 innings in the Dodgers' 5-1 loss at Chicago (over 7.5 missed), Randy Dobnak 1 K over 5.0 innings in Minnesota's 8-2 loss at Kansas City (over 2.5 missed), Grayson Rodriguez 6 K over 7.0 innings in the Angels' 3-1 loss at Baltimore (under 5.5 missed). Research only, never a pick, no units staked and the season record is unchanged. Full breakdown with charts and the market table.

August 3 headliner is a strikeout under on a pitcher whose only real out pitch is the one he throws least. Cristian Javier under 3.5 strikeouts at +122 on FanDuel, Blue Jays at Astros at Daikin Park, 8:10 ET, opposing Shane Bieber. Javier throws his four-seam 51.6 percent of the time and hitters are batting .303 against it; his sweeper, at 23.0 percent usage, is the pitch that puts hitters away. He has not thrown more than 70 pitches in an outing since April 3, his four starts covered 4.2, 3.2, 1.0 and 3.0 innings, and Toronto strikes out in just 18.6 percent of its plate appearances against right-handers. The model puts the under at 54.0 percent against a 45.1 percent break-even, a nine point gap and the widest of the 16 contracts evaluated. The honest counterpoint: since coming off the injured list he has 17 strikeouts in 53 batters faced, including 7 in five scoreless innings against the Angels on July 27. Behind it: Bubba Chandler under 4.5 at +120 in Milwaukee, Ian Seymour under 4.5 at +112 and Michael Lorenzen over 3.5 at +136 in the same Coors Field game, and Michael King under 4.5 at -115 in Arizona. The BetLegend game card carries two moneylines at its exact numbers: Brewers ML -139 (1.5u), Yankees ML -192 (2u). First-inning and outs markets: pass, analysis only. Graded 1-4, net notional -2.93u: Cristian Javier 2 K over 6.0 innings in Toronto's 3-1 win at Houston (under 3.5 won, +1.22u), Bubba Chandler 5 K over 5.2 innings in Milwaukee's 4-3 loss to Pittsburgh (under 4.5 lost, -1.00u), Ian Seymour 9 K over 6.0 innings in Tampa Bay's 13-9 win at Colorado (under 4.5 lost, -1.00u), Michael King 5 K over 5.0 innings in Arizona's 5-1 win over San Diego (under 4.5 lost, -1.15u), Michael Lorenzen 0 K over 3.0 innings in the same Rays-Rockies game (over 3.5 lost, -1.00u). Analysis only, no tracked units, season record unchanged. Full breakdown with charts and the market table.

August 1 headliner is a strikeout over in the one park famous for killing them. Ryan Feltner over 3.5 strikeouts at -142 on FanDuel, Royals at Rockies at Coors Field, 8:10 ET. Feltner went from a zero strikeout night against Minnesota on June 28 to nine strikeouts with no walks against San Francisco on July 3, and the market has buried his line at 3.5 because of the park and a Kansas City lineup with the ninth fewest strikeouts in baseball. The model says the discount overshot: its blended number sits more than four points above the 58.7 percent the price needs, the widest gap of the 44 contracts evaluated. Behind it: Jack Perkins over 4.5 at -122 against Detroit, 45 strikeouts in 37.1 innings since joining the rotation on June 5, and Cristopher Sanchez under 7.5 at -156 at Baltimore, one clear of 7.5 in his last eight starts. The BetLegend game card carries five moneylines at its exact numbers: Phillies ML -143 (2u), Tigers ML -160 (3u), Yankees ML +104 (1u), Guardians ML -173 (1.5u), Dodgers ML -160 (2u). First-inning and outs markets: pass, analysis only. Graded 1-2, net notional -1.98u: Feltner 3 K over 6.0 innings in Colorado's 12-6 win over Kansas City (over 3.5 lost, -1.42u), Jack Perkins 9 K over 5.1 innings in the Athletics' 8-6 loss to Detroit (over 4.5 won, +1.00u), Cristopher Sanchez 11 K over 6.0 shutout innings in Philadelphia's 5-0 win at Baltimore (under 7.5 lost, -1.56u). Analysis only, no tracked units, season record unchanged. Full breakdown with charts and the market table.

July 30 headliner is a strikeout over priced like a coin flip on a line the pitcher's own rate clears. JP Sears over 3.5 strikeouts at -106 on FanDuel, Giants at Padres at Petco Park. Sears has landed on exactly 3 strikeouts in three straight outings, each a half strikeout short of tonight's line, after opening his season with 5, 4 and 5. Behind it: Andre Pallante over 4.5 at +140 against the Cubs, Noah Cameron under 4.5 at +104 against the Twins, and the BetLegend game card at its exact numbers: Giants +1.5 (-155, 1u), Giants team total over 3.5 (-125, 2u), Red Sox ML (-175, 2.5u). First-inning markets: pass, analysis only. Graded 0-3, net notional -3.06u: Sears 2 K over 3.2 innings in San Francisco's 4-1 win over San Diego (over 3.5 lost, -1.06u), Pallante 3 K over 6.1 innings in the Cubs' 4-2 ten-inning win over St. Louis (over 4.5 lost, -1.00u), Cameron 7 K over 8.0 shutout innings in Minnesota's 4-3 walk-off win over Kansas City (under 4.5 lost, -1.00u). Analysis only, no tracked units, season record unchanged. July 30 strikeout board

July 29 headliner is a strikeout over backed by a direct lineup comparison, not just a rate. Dustin May over 4.5 strikeouts at -162 on FanDuel, Cubs at Cardinals at Busch Stadium. May has struck out 8, 6, 7 and 9 hitters in four of his last seven starts, and tonight's Cubs lineup has struck out 973 times this season, more often than May's own Cardinals bats have struck out at the plate. His two shortest outings of the stretch, two thirds of an inning against Atlanta on July 2 and two innings at Kansas City on June 21, both ended with an early hook and five or more earned runs, the honest qualifier on an otherwise strong number. The board carries four more reads: Logan Webb under 5.5 at +106 against Milwaukee, a contact-manager profile fighting a strikeout-prone Brewers lineup; Jacob Lopez under 4.5 at -104 against Boston, leaning on a recent run of short and irregular outings; Davis Martin under 4.5 at -146 against the Yankees, a strong season rate that has gone quiet across his last six turns; and Grayson Rodriguez under 4.5 at +118 against Houston, a fade of a diminished arm even against the majors' most strikeout-prone offense. Five contracts made the page from 41 evaluated. Analysis only, no tracked pick. July 29 strikeout board

July 28 headliner is a strikeout over backed by a direct data point, not just a rate. Sandy Alcantara over 5.5 strikeouts at +116, Phillies at Marlins at loanDepot park. Alcantara has struck out 39 hitters across his last seven starts, 46.1 innings, and he already faced this exact Philadelphia lineup on June 17, striking out six of them in six innings without allowing a run. His two shortest strikeout nights of the stretch, three against Colorado on June 29 and three at Houston on July 22, both came with five earned runs allowed, the honest qualifier on an otherwise strong number. The board carries six more reads: Cade Cavalli over 4.5 at +118 against Toronto, a tough strikeout matchup carried by his own emerging 10.3 K/9 rate and 46 strikeouts over his last seven starts; Reid Detmers under 6.5 at -136 against Houston, leaning on a shrinking recent workload despite already beating this Astros lineup for nine strikeouts on June 10; Troy Melton over 5.5 at -113 against Baltimore, a rookie sensation (5-1, 1.95 ERA) facing the third most strikeout-prone lineup in the majors; Chase Burns over 6.5 at +112 against Cleveland, the board's most talented arm working through a two-start cold stretch; Christian Scott over 5.5 at +118 against Atlanta, backed by a direct precedent of seven strikeouts against these same Braves on July 3; and Gavin Williams under 7.5 at -130 against Cincinnati, a fade of three straight 11-strikeout starts and the board's most contrarian read. Seven contracts made the page from 41 evaluated, graded 0-6-1 (see below). July 28 strikeout board

July 27 headliner is a strikeout over, and it comes with the honest counterpoint stated up front. Brandon Sproat over 4.5 strikeouts at +104 on DraftKings, Brewers at Giants at Oracle Park, 6:45 PM Pacific. Sproat has struck out 34 hitters across his last six starts, 26.2 innings, an 11.5 strikeouts per nine rate well above his 9.45 season number, but San Francisco has struck out only 830 times in 2026, fifth fewest in baseball, so this bet leans on his own stuff rather than a favorable matchup. He cleared the 4.5 line in three of his last six starts and missed it in the other three. The board carries four more reads: Mitch Keller under 3.5 strikeouts at -170 against Arizona, the second toughest strikeout matchup in the majors at 767 team strikeouts, a value disagreement with a market that prices him as a heavy favorite to go over; Walbert Urena over 4.5 at -113 against Houston, a rookie whose own emerging 8.55 K/9 rate has cleared this number in four of his last six starts; Tyler Phillips over 3.5 at -136 against the Phillies, the board's riskiest number, with only nine strikeouts across his last five starts and zero of them clearing the line, leaning entirely on Philadelphia's strikeout-prone lineup to carry it; and Chase Burns over 6.5 at +112 against Cleveland, the board's most talented arm working through a two-start cold stretch. Five contracts made the page from 41 evaluated. Analysis only, no tracked pick. July 27 strikeout board

July 25 is a pass, and the reason is a market that disappeared rather than a lack of edge. Our 11:01 AM line check logged 48 real FanDuel markets, 24 pitcher strikeout lines and 24 outs recorded lines, spread across 13 of the day's 15 games: Paul Skenes at 6.5 strikeouts (-148) opposite Shota Imanaga at 5.5 in Pittsburgh, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Nolan McLean both at 6.5 in the same Dodgers-Mets game, Dylan Cease carrying the day's highest number at 7.5 against Sonny Gray's 4.5, Hunter Brown and Sean Burke both lined at 5.5 in the same Astros-White Sox game with the market favoring each pitcher's over and under in opposite directions. When the board that actually feeds this page ran at 4:18 PM, the identical fetch across all 27 events FanDuel had listed for today and tomorrow combined came back with zero pitcher prop markets posted anywhere. With no live market price to blend against, the model has nothing to grade. The model's own backtest, a 193-contract live-line replay from May 2026, shows the de-vigged FanDuel market beating a stats-only projection on Brier score (0.246 versus 0.261 and 0.266), which is why it anchors to the market rather than overriding it, and why an empty market means an empty board rather than a manufactured pick. Analysis only, no tracked pick, season record unchanged. July 25 market gap breakdown

July 24 headliner is a strikeout over, and it is the loudest number on the board once you throw out the loudest number on the board. Jared Jones over 5.5 strikeouts, priced around even money at +108 on DraftKings and closer to -109 on FanDuel, Cubs at Pirates at PNC Park. The case is form meeting matchup: Jones has struck out 23 hitters across 15 innings in his three July starts, going 6, 8 and 9, and carries a 10.8 strikeouts-per-nine rate on the season, while the Cubs arrive having struck out 977 times in 2026, the second most of any lineup in baseball behind only the Athletics. The rate says buy and the opponent says buy louder. The one honest worry is workload, not swing and miss: Jones has topped five innings only three times in nine starts, so a short outing of 17 or 18 batters can leave even an elite rate on five rather than six, which is why the price sits at even money instead of a heavy favorite. His last two starts pushed to six and five innings for eight and nine strikeouts, and that version clears this number by the fifth. The board also carries three supporting reads: Zebby Matthews over 4.5 at +112 against the Athletics, a matchup over on the game's whiff-leading offense rather than a bet on his 7.5 per-nine rate; Jacob Lopez under 4.5 against the Twins, a volume under on a 6.64 ERA, 1.73 WHIP arm who rarely gets past the fourth inning; and a lean on Trey Yesavage under 5.5 against Boston, the lineup that strikes out fewest in the majors at 730, the toughest strikeout matchup on the slate. The model's single strongest number, Dustin May over 5.5, never made the page because May is not starting, the Dodgers are sending Roki Sasaki against the Mets with Sean Manaea opposing, and a projection for a pitcher who is not pitching gets deleted rather than hedged. All reads are analysis for MLBProps.com readers. July 24 Jared Jones strikeout board

July 22 is a pass, and the reason is worth more than a play. The model flagged two contracts playable and both were cut on review. The headline number was Max Fried over 3.5 strikeouts at -158 on FanDuel, Pirates at Yankees in the nightcap of a Bronx doubleheader, graded strong at a 4.7 point edge, the loudest thing on the board. Fried was activated off the 15-day injured list that same morning, after a left elbow bone bruise that cost him 70 days and a single 3.0-inning, 52-pitch rehab outing five days earlier. The projection quietly assumed a full 24-batter start: run his 22.6 percent matchup-adjusted rate across 24 hitters and you get 79.0 percent to reach four strikeouts, which reproduces the model almost exactly. Across a realistic first-start-back workload of 17 to 20 batters the same arithmetic returns 53.5 to 66.1 percent, against a price that needs 61.2. The entire edge lived inside a pitch limit nobody outside the Yankees can verify, so it gets cut rather than hedged. FanDuel says the same thing louder: Fried's line sits at the board's floor tier of 3.5 beside Keider Montero, Martin Perez and Eric Lauer while Aaron Nola and Kyle Bradish sit at 5.5, the book posted no outs recorded market for him at all despite posting one for nine other starters on the slate, his alternate ladder stops at 7 or more, and his first pitch at 91.9 mph or slower is priced -160 with 94 and above at +650. Bubba Chandler over 4.5 at -140 was the other flagged play and it falls on its own log: 20.2 percent strikeout rate over 22.2 batters per outing, five or more strikeouts in just 9 of 19 trips, a 47.4 percent record against a price needing 58.3. This board cut Chandler on the same grounds on July 21. Everything here is analysis only, there is no tracked pick for July 22, and the season record is untouched. July 22 Fried strikeout pass

July 21 is a strikeout board and the filter is the story. The model ran 43 contracts and flagged seven, and three of them were cut for projecting rates their own start logs have never produced. The surviving read is Tatsuya Imai under 5.5 strikeouts at -156 on FanDuel, Marlins at Astros at Daikin Park: 52.0 innings across 13 starts is an even 4.00 per outing, the shortest leash on the slate, and the under has landed in 9 of 13 against a price that needs 60.9 percent. His 33 walks in 52 innings behind a 6.06 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP are why he leaves early, and his 10.90 strikeouts per nine, the highest rate on the board, are the honest risk if Houston lets him finish six. Cut: Chase Burns under 6.5 at +120 (over in 13 of 18 starts, a 72.2 percent over rate), Bubba Chandler over 4.5 at -128 (4.33 strikeouts per start, over in 7 of 18), and Reynaldo Lopez over 4.5 at +120 (9 starts in 22 appearances, 3.89 strikeouts per start, below the line itself). Kevin Gausman under 5.5 at -130 is the lone lean, facing a Tampa Bay offense that strikes out in a league-low 18.9 percent of its plate appearances. The pitcher outs board produced zero playable contracts from 17 evaluated. On first-inning runs the cleanest number is Orioles at Red Sox NRFI at -130, with Boston scoring early in 22.5 percent of games and Baltimore in 23.0 percent, the two quietest opening frames in baseball. Everything on this board is analysis only and none of it is a tracked pick. July 21 Imai strikeout board

July 19 headliner is a strikeout under on a former strikeout leader, and it is analysis only. Robbie Ray under 5.5 strikeouts at -132, Giants at Mariners at T-Mobile Park, 4:10 PM ET, opposing Logan Gilbert. The case is a mid-season identity change: Ray averages 4.74 strikeouts per outing with the under 5.5 landing in 11 of his 19 appearances, and his last four starts produced strikeout counts of 6, 2, 4, and 4 across 27 innings, a 5.33 per-nine clip that includes an eight-inning, two-strikeout shutout start in Atlanta on June 28. He is pitching deeper than he has all season, a 1.33 ERA over that stretch, while the whiffs walk out the door, and the model prices his over probability at 31 percent against a market implying 46. The honest counterpoint is the opponent and the cushion: Seattle strikes out in 23.10 percent of its plate appearances, ninth most in baseball, and Ray's own 57.9 percent season under rate clears the 56.9 percent break-even by barely a point. Fourteen contracts were evaluated, eight strikeout and six pitcher outs markets, and only the Ray under cleared as playable, with Eduardo Rodriguez under 3.5 at +122 the nearest miss against the fourth-lowest whiff lineup in baseball. Every outs contract graded negative after the market blend and no first-inning contract cleared the board, so there is no NRFI or YRFI lean today. The day's card carries three team plays with exact numbers: Cardinals Team Total Under 4.5 at -138 (1.5u), Nationals moneyline at -143 (2u), and Giants at Mariners Under 7.5 at -120 (2.5u). Model reads are analysis, not tracked picks. Robbie Ray strikeout card

July 18 headliner is a strikeout under on the best arm on the board, and it is analysis only. Tarik Skubal under 8.5 strikeouts at -138, Tigers at Angels in Anaheim, 10:07 PM ET, opposing Grayson Rodriguez. The case is workload, not stuff: Skubal misses bats at a 10.59 strikeouts-per-nine rate but averages just 6.85 strikeouts per start because his outings keep ending around the sixth inning, and the under 8.5 has landed in 9 of his 13 starts (69 percent) against a 58 percent break-even, with his last turn a five-inning, five-strikeout night against the Phillies. The honest counterpoint is loud and it is the opponent: the Angels own baseball's highest team strikeout rate at 25.13 percent, and Skubal went over 8.5 in three of his four starts across late June and early July, punching out 9 twice against the Yankees and 9 against the Athletics. The matchup fights the under and the innings carry it. The board also produced two more strong reads, Dustin May over 3.5 at -156 on a 4.94-per-start pace clearing a low line and Max Meyer under 5.5 at -106 betting his innings collapse before his strikeouts cash, plus four leans: Spencer Arrighetti under 5.5 at +118, Tomoyuki Sugano over 2.5 at -164, Jared Jones over 5.5 at +108, and J.T. Ginn over 4.5 at +118, the last a bulk arm with real role risk. No first-inning or pitcher outs contract cleared the board as a play, so there is no NRFI or outs lean today. All reads are analysis, not tracked picks. Graded 5-2: Skubal 9 K (Under 8.5 lost), May 6 K (Over 3.5 won), Meyer 5 K (Under 5.5 won), Arrighetti 6 K (Under 5.5 lost), Sugano 3 K (Over 2.5 won), Jones 9 K (Over 5.5 won), Ginn 7 K (Over 4.5 won). Tarik Skubal strikeout card

July 17 headliner is a strikeout under, and it is analysis only. Jake Bennett under 3.5 strikeouts at +128, Game 1 of the Rays at Red Sox split doubleheader at Fenway Park, 1:35 ET, opposing Griffin Jax. The case is structural rather than form-based: Tampa Bay strikes out in 18.91 percent of its plate appearances, the lowest rate of any lineup in baseball against a 22.10 percent league average, and the Rays hit .259 as a team. Bennett answers with an arsenal that has no put-away spin, a four-seamer at 33.6 percent usage and 93.0 mph, a sinker at 27.6 percent, a changeup at 25.6 percent, and a breaking ball on just 9.9 percent of his pitches, which is how a 2.64 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP coexist with a 6.61 strikeouts-per-nine rate. In two starts against these Rays he has 5 strikeouts across 10.1 innings, a 4.35 per-nine clip. The honest counterpoint is loud and it is his own record: Bennett averages 4.38 strikeouts a start, the under has hit in only 3 of his 8 starts (37.5 percent) against a 43.9 percent break-even, and he struck out 9 Colorado hitters on June 22. The matchup has to carry this one. The board cleared 4 leans out of 26 contracts, all strikeout markets: Reid Detmers under 6.5 at +100 is the best-supported read with model and 19-start record both near 58 percent against a 50 percent break-even, Spencer Miles under 4.5 at -170 is structurally right on a swingman averaging 3.33 innings per start but priced past its value, and Griffin Jax over 4.5 at -148 is the model's favorite and our least favorite with a 4.36 per-start average sitting below his own line. No NRFI, YRFI, or pitcher outs contract cleared the board today, so there is no first-inning play and we are not manufacturing one. All four reads are analysis, not tracked picks. Graded 3-1: Bennett 3 K (Under 3.5 won), Miles 4 K (Under 4.5 won), Jax 6 K (Over 4.5 won), Detmers 7 K (Under 6.5 lost). Jake Bennett strikeout card

July 12 headliner is a first-inning play. Phillies at Tigers No Runs First Inning (NRFI), taken as the first-inning Under 0.5 runs at -155 on DraftKings (1u), Comerica Park, 1:40 ET, Zack Wheeler opposite Tarik Skubal. This one is an arms case, not a lineup case: Wheeler owns a 1.29 first-inning ERA with a .143 average against and 19 strikeouts across his 14 opening frames, scoreless in 12 of 14 starts with eight straight clean firsts since May 29, while Skubal has struck out 17 hitters without a single walk in his 12 first innings, a .200 average against with his 4.50 first-inning ERA driven almost entirely by 5 solo home runs. The honest risk is loud on both halves: Philadelphia hits .247 with a .797 OPS and 20 home runs in the first inning, Detroit hits .278 with a .822 OPS, and -155 needs about 60.8 percent, the steepest first-inning price we have laid all season, playable only because the same market sits past -190 elsewhere and both arms carry sub-1.00 WHIPs. The model board also flags five strikeout reads as analysis only, led by MacKenzie Gore over 4.5 at +108 and Taj Bradley over 6.5 at -108, with Cade Cavalli over 5.5 at even money, Dustin May over 4.5 at -132, and Joey Cantillo under 4.5 at +130. First-inning market headlines the card. Phillies Tigers NRFI card

July 11 headliner is a first-inning play. Blue Jays at Padres No Runs First Inning (NRFI), taken as the first-inning Under 0.5 runs at -125 on DraftKings (1u), Petco Park, 8:40 ET, Trey Yesavage opposite Walker Buehler. The anchor is the bottom half: Yesavage holds first innings to a .174 average against with 12 strikeouts across his 13 opening frames and a scoreless first in 9 of 13 starts, including 5 of 6 on the road, and he draws a Padres offense hitting .190 with a .615 OPS in the first inning, 37 early runs in 94 games, one of the softest opening-frame lineups in baseball. Walker Buehler supports the top half with a scoreless first in 14 of 18 starts, 8 of 10 at pitcher-friendly Petco, and 22 strikeouts in his 18 opening frames, but he is also the honest risk: five first-inning runs across his last two starts (three on July 1, two on July 6) with a .723 first-inning OPS Toronto lineup waiting in the top half, and -125 needs about 55.6 percent, a bar the matchup fit clears with only a modest cushion. The model board also flags six strikeout reads as analysis only, led by Casey Mize over 5.5 at +108, Kyle Bradish over 5.5 at +112, and Tanner Bibee under 4.5 at -120, with Buehler over 3.5 at -132 pointing the same direction as the NRFI. First-inning market headlines the card. Result: Loss. The Padres scored twice in the bottom of the first inning off Trey Yesavage at Petco Park (Gavin Sheets bases-loaded walk, Ty France sacrifice fly) in San Diego's 8-7 win. NRFI lost, -1.25u. Blue Jays Padres NRFI card

July 10 headliner is a first-inning play. Mariners at Rays No Runs First Inning (NRFI), taken as the first-inning Under 0.5 runs at -113 on DraftKings (1u), Tropicana Field, 7:10 ET, Luis Castillo opposite Nick Martinez. The anchor is Martinez's command: a 2.61 ERA over 17 starts with a 1.13 WHIP and just 18 walks in 100 innings, a 1.62 walks-per-nine rate that ranks among the best in baseball and strangles the free baserunners early runs are built on. A first-inning run almost always starts with a runner, and Martinez hands them out less than nearly any starter alive, keeping the top of the frame quiet against Seattle. The honest risk is the other half: Luis Castillo carries a 4.79 ERA and a 0.98 home-runs-per-nine rate, so one Rays swing in the bottom of the first, or a leadoff walk and a double, is the loud way it plays over. This is a pitching-forward matchup between two sub-1.35 WHIP starters in a controlled indoor park, and -113 needs only about 53.1 percent. The model board also flags four strikeout reads as analysis only, led by Braxton Ashcraft over 6.5 at +116 and Robbie Ray under 5.5 at -130, with Sandy Alcantara over 5.5 at +110 and Brandon Sproat over 5.5 at +134. First-inning market headlines the card. Result: Win. Luis Castillo and Nick Martinez both posted a scoreless first inning at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay's 7-2 win. NRFI won, +1.00u. Mariners Rays NRFI card

July 9 headliner is a strikeout over. Bryce Miller over 5.5 strikeouts at -132 on FanDuel (1u), Mariners at Marlins, loanDepot park, 6:40 ET, opposing Janson Junk. Miller has quietly built one of the best lines of any starter in baseball, a 1.71 ERA and a 0.66 WHIP with a 10.6 strikeouts-per-nine rate, and the over is a current-form play: he has cleared 5.5 strikeouts in six straight starts (6, 9, 7, 7, 11, 8) and averages about 7.4 across his last eight (7, 4, 6, 9, 7, 7, 11, 8). Miami whiffs at a roughly league-average 21.5 percent team rate, a mild tailwind rather than a wall, and the opposing starter is a rusty Janson Junk activated off the 15-day injured list on a limited pitch count, an early exit waiting to happen rather than a threat to keep Miller's night short. The honest risk is the length of Miller's own outing, since a short five-inning start caps the total before the sixth strikeout, the way his four-strikeout night at the Athletics on May 25 played out, and -132 needs about 56.9 percent. The model board also flags Framber Valdez under 5.5 strikeouts at -146 as analysis only, and documents a pass on Janson Junk over 3.5 at -130 as an injury-return artifact. Result: Loss. Bryce Miller lasted only 5 innings at loanDepot park and struck out 3, short of the 5.5 line, the short-outing risk the writeup flagged. Over 5.5 lost, -1.32u. Bryce Miller strikeout card

July 8 headliner is a strikeout over. Walbert Urena over 4.5 strikeouts at -102 on FanDuel (1u), Angels at Rangers, Globe Life Field, 8:05 ET, opposing MacKenzie Gore. Urena is a 22-year-old righty who has quietly become the Angels' steadiest arm, a 3.03 ERA with an 8.7 strikeouts-per-nine rate across 77.1 innings. The over is a form-and-matchup lean: he has cleared 4.5 strikeouts in seven of his last eight starts (6, 5, 7, 7, 3, 6, 5, 6) and struck out six of these same Rangers over five innings on May 23, the most recent look at this exact lineup. His five-per-start average sits right on the line at a near-even price that needs just 50.5 percent, and Texas whiffs at a roughly league-average 22.5 percent team rate, no contact wall to suppress the total. The honest risk is his command, a 4.8 walks-per-nine rate that can run up his pitch count and end the start before the strikeouts pile up, the way his three-strikeout, seven-inning night at Arizona on June 15 played out. The model board also flags Michael King under 4.5 strikeouts at -122 as analysis only, a Padres starter whose recent totals of 5, 5, 5, 1, 3 and 4 have his outings running shorter. Walbert Urena strikeout card

July 7 headliner is a first-inning play. Angels at Rangers No Runs First Inning (NRFI), taken as the first-inning Under 0.5 runs at -134 on DraftKings (1.5u), Globe Life Field, 8:05 ET, Jose Soriano opposite Jacob deGrom. The twist is that the risk here is the ace. deGrom carries a 3.48 season ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and 10.82 strikeouts per nine, but his first inning has been a 9.00 ERA disaster with 8 first-inning home runs, half of the 16 he has allowed all year, and he faces an Angels lineup with 21 first-inning homers. The case for the NRFI is that deGrom's first-inning damage is solo-homer variance on an arm that walks nobody, 6 walks against 24 strikeouts in 17 first innings, the profile that regresses toward his elite season line, while Jose Soriano anchors the other half with a clean 3.00 first-inning ERA, a .613 OPS against in the frame, and one first-inning homer all year. The honest risk is loud: one Angels swing off deGrom in the top of the first ends it, at a price that needs 57.3 percent. The model board also flags three strikeout reads as analysis only, led by Tarik Skubal under 8.5 at -142 and Taj Bradley over 6.5 at +120. Result: Loss. The Angels scored twice in the top of the first inning off Jacob deGrom at Globe Life Field (Jorge Soler RBI double, Josh Lowe RBI single) in an 8-3 Texas win. NRFI lost, -2.01u. Angels Rangers NRFI card

July 5 headliner is a first-inning play. Blue Jays at Mariners No Runs First Inning (NRFI), taken as the first-inning Under 0.5 runs at -124 on DraftKings (1u), T-Mobile Park, 5:00 ET, Trey Yesavage opposite Emerson Hancock. The case is Hancock's first inning, quietly his best inning all season: a 1.69 first-inning ERA with a scoreless first in 13 of 16 starts, a .164 average against in the frame, and just 3 first-inning walks, pointed at a Toronto offense that has scored a first-inning run in only 23.6 percent of its games with 9 first-inning homers all year. Yesavage answers with a .186 first-inning average against and 8 clean firsts in 12 starts, including three of his last four. The honest risk is the price, which needs 55.4 percent, and Seattle's homer-driven early offense, 17 first-inning home runs against Yesavage's 4.01 walks per nine. The raw season rates sit close to fair at this number, so the edge is the matchup fit, and the stake stays one unit. The model board also flags five strikeout reads as analysis only, led by Hancock over 4.5 strikeouts at -104, a signal that points the same direction as the NRFI. Result: Win. Both Yesavage and Hancock posted a scoreless first inning at T-Mobile Park in Seattle's 4-0 win. NRFI won, +1.00u. Blue Jays Mariners NRFI card

July 4 headliner is a strikeout over. Michael Wacha over 4.5 strikeouts at -111 on FanDuel (1u), Phillies at Royals, Kauffman Stadium, 8:10 ET, opposing Jesus Luzardo. Wacha carries only a 19 percent strikeout rate, but this is a workload over: he averages 6.4 innings per start, and volume is what carries a low line. His 4.94 strikeouts per outing sit just under the number, he has cleared 4.5 in 12 of 17 starts (a 70.6 percent rate against a 52.6 percent break-even), and the Phillies whiff at an above-average 23.5 percent, a tailwind rather than a headwind. His ceiling starts of eight, seven, and six show five is well within reach when counts run deep. The honest risk is a short, soft-contact night like his June dip, when he fanned two, two, and three against the Twins, Rangers, and Nationals. One unit because the edge is a volume lean rather than a bet on dominant stuff. Result: Win. Wacha struck out 7 over 6 innings, clearing the 4.5 line. Over 4.5 won, +1.0u. Michael Wacha strikeout card

July 3 headliner is a first-inning play. Padres at Dodgers No Runs First Inning (NRFI) at -114 (1u), equivalent to Under 0.5 first-inning runs, Dodger Stadium, 10:10 ET, Shohei Ohtani opposite Michael King. The case is elite first-inning form: Ohtani has thrown a scoreless first in all 13 of his starts and has not allowed a first-inning run all season, holding the frame to a .152 average with a 1.58 ERA, while Michael King has been clean in 16 of 17 opening frames with a .094 first-inning average against. The Padres are a soft early offense at a .589 first-inning OPS. The honest risk is the price, which needs 53.3 percent, and the Dodgers' potent early bats on the bottom half of the inning, a .822 first-inning OPS with 19 first-inning home runs, against King's 3.64 walks per nine. The exchange first-inning fair has sat near 56 percent, so -114 carries real value. The same slate also flags two model strikeout unders as analysis only, Dylan Cease under 7.5 and Reid Detmers under 6.5, not tracked picks. First-inning markets headline the card. Result: Loss. The Padres scored in the top of the first inning at Dodger Stadium. NRFI lost, -1.14u. Padres Dodgers NRFI card

July 2 headliner is a first-inning play. Tigers at Rangers No Runs First Inning (NRFI) at -137 (1u), with a FanDuel alternative of Under 0.5 first-inning runs at -148, Globe Life Field, 8:05 ET, Framber Valdez opposite Nathan Eovaldi. The case is recent first-inning form and control: Valdez has opened with a scoreless first in four straight starts and 12 of 17 overall, Eovaldi in five straight and 10 of 16, and Eovaldi walks just 2.06 per nine, one of the lowest rates in baseball, which strangles the free baserunners that create early runs. The Tigers are held scoreless in the first inning 68.6 percent of the time and the Rangers 70.1 percent, two middling early offenses. The honest risk is the price, which needs 57.8 percent, and a leadoff extra-base hit off Eovaldi, who has still allowed a first-inning run in six of sixteen starts. The same game also carries a strong strikeout read: Framber Valdez under 5.5 strikeouts around -142, a pitch-to-contact profile at 7.24 strikeout per nine who has finished under 5.5 in 12 of 17 outings, tracked as analysis. First-inning markets headline the card. Result: Win, +1.0u. Framber Valdez and Nathan Eovaldi each posted a scoreless first inning at Globe Life Field. NRFI won. Tigers Rangers NRFI card

July 1 headliner is a plus-money strikeout over. Michael McGreevy over 3.5 strikeouts at +128 on FanDuel (1u), Cardinals at Braves, Truist Park, opposing Reynaldo Lopez. McGreevy is a contact-first sinkerballer with a modest 5.74 strikeout per nine rate and a 3.12 ERA, but his 3.56 per-start average clears a low 3.5 line and the plus price needs only 43.9 percent to profit while a rate projection lands the over near 48 percent. His ceiling starts of nine, six, and five strikeouts show four is reachable. The honest risk is his floor, four one-strikeout starts this year, against a Braves lineup that makes contact at a 21.2 percent strikeout rate. Andrew Abbott over 4.5 strikeouts at +130 (0.5u) is the lean, a Reds lefty at Milwaukee whose last five starts all cleared five strikeouts (5, 6, 5, 6, 6) at plus money against a 21.2 percent Brewers lineup. Tatsuya Imai under 5.5 at -150 is a documented pass: his season under rate of seven in eleven is real, but back-to-back starts of 11 and 10 strikeouts flip the recent signal and the price offers no cushion. First-inning markets: documented pass, all negative EV. Result: 0-2, -1.50u. Michael McGreevy struck out only 3 over 6 innings in a 5-1 Braves win over the Cardinals at Truist Park, short of the line (over 3.5 lost, -1.00u). Andrew Abbott struck out just 3 over 5 innings in a 4-2 Brewers win over the Reds (over 4.5 lost, -0.50u). Michael McGreevy strikeout card

June 30 board carries two plus-money strikeout unders for 1 unit total. Mike Burrows under 4.5 strikeouts at +110 on FanDuel (0.5u), Twins at Astros, Daikin Park, a 7.28 strikeout per nine arm whose median start is four strikeouts and who has landed under 4.5 in eight of his 15 starts (game log clusters on threes), against a Twins lineup that whiffs at a moderate 21.4 percent. Justin Wrobleski under 4.5 at +118 (0.5u), the Dodgers lefty with a 5.53 strikeout per nine rate, one of the lowest among regular starters, who has finished with four or fewer strikeouts in nine of 14 outings despite a 2.71 ERA, at the Athletics (22.4 percent team strikeout rate). Both are plus money, with break-evens of 47.6 and 45.9 percent beneath each pitcher's real under rate. The honest risk on both is a deep, swing-and-miss start, which is why each stake is a half unit. Result: 1-1, +0.05u. Mike Burrows struck out 3 over 5 innings in a 6-4 Astros win over the Twins, under 4.5 (+110, +0.55u). Justin Wrobleski went the other way with a career-high 11 strikeouts over 7 innings against the Athletics, over the line (under 4.5 lost, -0.50u). Burrows and Wrobleski strikeout card

June 29 headliner is a strikeout under. Robert Gasser under 5.5 strikeouts at -102 on FanDuel (1u), Reds at Brewers, American Family Field, 7:40 ET. Gasser misses bats at a 9.3 strikeout per nine rate, but the prop is a volume market and he has not thrown a pitch in the seventh inning all year. Six starts, never past six innings, an average of just under five, and a strikeout count that has landed under 5.5 in four of those six outings (3, 4, 5, 7, 5, 7). His 5.2 per-start average sits below the line before any matchup read, and -102 is barely above a coin flip at 50.5 percent break-even. The honest risk is the matchup: the Reds whiff at 26.4 percent with five regulars above 27 percent, a free-swinging lineup that can hand him a quick six if he is stretched the way he was June 21 at Atlanta (6 IP, 7 K). One unit because the lean is thin but real. Result: Win. Gasser struck out 5 over 5.2 innings in a 5-3 Brewers win over the Reds, under the line. Under 5.5 won, +1.0u. Gasser strikeout card

June 28 headliner is a first-inning play. Braves at Giants No Run First Inning (NRFI) at -150 on DraftKings (1u), with Chris Sale and Robbie Ray both owning the opening frame at Oracle Park. Sale brings a 2.14 ERA and a 1.29 first-inning ERA with 20 strikeouts in the first inning across 14 starts, coming off 5.2 scoreless against Milwaukee on June 20. Ray has not allowed a first-inning run in his last five starts and blanked these same Braves over 6.1 innings with eight strikeouts on June 16. Add an Atlanta offense just shut out 5-0 the night before and the Oracle Park marine layer that swallows early home runs. The honest risk is the price: -150 needs a 60 percent break-even, and Ray's 3.70 season ERA means one walk-and-double inning is how it loses. Result: Win. Sale and Ray both posted a scoreless first frame at Oracle Park. NRFI won, +1.0u. Braves Giants NRFI card

June 27 board carries four tracked strikeout props for 3 units total. Reid Detmers under 7.5 strikeouts at -140 (1u), an Angels lefty who misses bats at a 10-plus K/9 clip but averages just 6.67 per start on six-inning outings, against the Athletics. Kyle Harrison over 5.5 at -148 (1u), the Brewers lefty with a 10.9 K/9 and a 2.50 ERA who has dominated the Cubs, including 11 strikeouts over seven shutout innings at Wrigley on May 20. Foster Griffin under 6.5 at -166 (0.5u), a half-unit lean on the Nationals lefty whose recent log of 9, 6, 5, 4, 5 and 6 sits under the line in five of six even as his season pace runs a hair high, at Baltimore. Slade Cecconi under 4.5 at -132 (0.5u), a half-unit lean on the Guardians righty averaging 3.88 strikeouts per start against a whiff-heavy Seattle lineup that is the honest risk. First-inning markets: documented pass, all negative EV. Detmers and Harrison card

June 26 board carried five tracked strikeout props for 4 units total. Patrick Corbin under 3.5 strikeouts at +118 (1u), the faded Blue Jays veteran averaging 3.36 strikeouts per start who has not finished the fifth inning in his last two outings, against Texas. Trevor Rogers under 4.5 at +108 (1u), an Orioles lefty averaging 3.86 per start whom Washington has battered for a .357 team average with just three strikeouts total against him. Paul Skenes under 8.5 at -147 (1u), elite but priced nearly two strikeouts over his 6.69 per start pace on a six-inning workload, facing the Reds. Joey Cantillo under 5.5 at -122 (0.5u), a half unit because his 4.75 season pace fights a hot recent log of 7, 4 and 9 and a whiff-heavy Seattle lineup. Roki Sasaki over 5.5 at -120 (0.5u), a half-unit lean on a sharper splitter and a rising whiff rate at San Diego. First-inning markets: documented pass, all negative EV. Corbin and Skenes card

June 25 board graded 1-1 for +0.43u. Cade Cavalli over 4.5 strikeouts at -144 (1u) cashed, the confirmed Nationals starter punching out 7 over 6 innings against the Phillies for +1.0u. Jeffrey Springs under 4.5 strikeouts at -114 (0.5u) lost, the Athletics left-hander getting deep for 6 strikeouts over 5.1 innings against the Giants, over the line, for -0.57u. We passed Kevin Gausman under 5.5 at -150 because his 5.56 average sat right on the line at too steep a price. First-inning markets: documented pass, all negative EV. Cavalli and Springs card

June 24 board graded 1-1 for -1.04u. Braxton Ashcraft over 5.5 strikeouts at -140 (0.5u) cashed, the Pirates power arm punching out 10 against the Mariners for +0.50u. Matthew Liberatore over 3.5 strikeouts at -154 (1u) lost, the Cardinals lefty managing only 3 strikeouts against the Diamondbacks, one short of the four he needed, for -1.54u. The half-unit second leg landed while the anchor came up short. First-inning markets: documented pass, all negative EV. Liberatore and Ashcraft card

June 23 board carried two tracked strikeout unders for 1.5 units total. Robbie Ray under 6.5 strikeouts at -162 (1u), a Giants lefty with an elite 10.51 K/9 who has cleared 6.5 in only two of fifteen starts because his innings keep ending in the fifth, his last seven going 2, 1, 3, 6, 4, 3 and 8. Nick Lodolo under 4.5 strikeouts at -168 (0.5u), a Reds lefty back from a blister with a modest 6.16 K/9 and exactly four strikeouts per start, under 4.5 in five of eight, facing a contact Milwaukee lineup that whiffs only 22.0 percent against lefties. We dropped the model's loudest strong lean, Luinder Avila over 3.5 at -172, as a swingman artifact. First-inning markets: documented pass, all negative EV. Ray and Lodolo card

June 22 board graded 1-1 for -0.22u. Dylan Cease over 6.5 strikeouts at -138 (1u) cashed, the American League strikeout leader punching out 8 over 5.2 innings against Houston in a 4-2 Toronto win (+1.00u). Andre Pallante over 3.5 strikeouts at -122 (1u) lost, the Cardinals righty managing only 2 strikeouts across 6 strong innings (6 H, 1 ER) in a 3-2 win over Arizona (-1.22u). First-inning markets: documented pass, all graded negative EV. Cease and Pallante card

June 21 board carries two tracked strikeout unders for 1.5 units total. Emmet Sheehan under 6.5 strikeouts at -115 (1u), a Dodgers arm with a near double digit K/9 whose short, managed starts have him over 6.5 in only four of thirteen outings, drawing a high strikeout Orioles lineup that is the honest counterweight. Logan Gilbert under 6.5 strikeouts at +104 (0.5u), a Mariners righty whose recent starts keep ending in the fifth and sixth inning with totals of 5, 6, 6, 5 and 4, the plus price carrying a half unit lean against a Red Sox lineup that whiffs at a high rate. First-inning markets: documented pass. Sheehan and Gilbert card

June 20 board graded 1-2 for -1.09u. Cade Cavalli over 4.5 strikeouts at -108 (1u) lost, the Nationals righty getting a quick hook after 2.2 innings with just 1 strikeout (6 H, 3 BB) against the Rays. Joey Cantillo under 4.5 strikeouts at -102 (0.5u) lost, the Guardians lefty flipping his profile with a career-high-tying 8 innings and 9 strikeouts against the Astros. The first-inning play cashed: Brewers at Braves NRFI (No Runs First Inning) at -170 (0.5u) won, with Kyle Harrison perfect through four and a scoreless opening frame on both sides. Cavalli and Cantillo card

June 19 board graded 2-0 for +2.08u: Ranger Suarez struck out 5 over 6.2 innings while carrying a no-hitter into the seventh, cashing the under 5.5 at +108 (+1.08u), and Bryce Miller struck out 7 over 5.0 innings, cashing the over 4.5 at -162 (+1.00u). Same game, opposite directions, both home. First-inning markets: documented pass, priced near fair. Suarez and Miller card

June 18 board carries three tracked props for 2.5 units total. Ryan Weathers over 5.5 strikeouts at -122 (1u), a Yankees lefty with a 9.81 K/9 drawing a White Sox lineup that whiffs 23.9 percent of the time. Noah Cameron over 4.5 strikeouts at +108 (1u), a Royals lefty with an 8.23 K/9 against a 20.7 percent strikeout Cardinals lineup, the plus money doing the work. Matthew Liberatore under 15.5 outs recorded at -110 (0.5u), a Cardinals lefty whose starts keep shrinking to 4.1 innings against a contact heavy Royals lineup. First-inning markets: documented pass, priced near fair. Weathers card · Cameron card · Liberatore card

June 17 board graded 2-0 for +2.00u: Javier Assad struck out only 1 over 5.2 innings, cashing the under 4.5 at -160 (+1.00u), and Braxton Ashcraft struck out 7 over 6.0 innings, cashing the over 5.5 at -104 (+1.00u). First-inning and batter markets were a documented pass. Read the June 17 prop card

June 16 headliner graded a loss for -1.50u: Dylan Cease over 7.5 strikeouts at +105 FanDuel (1.5u) landed on exactly 7 strikeouts over 5.0 innings against Boston, one short of the line. First-inning markets: pass, analysis only. Read the June 16 Cease prop card

June 15 board graded 1-3 for -2.07u: Dustin May over 5.5 strikeouts cashed with a 9-strikeout complete-game shutout (+0.63u), while MacKenzie Gore went the wrong way with 10 strikeouts in a deep start (under loss, -1.00u), Walbert Urena managed only 3 strikeouts (over loss, -1.00u), and J.T. Ginn also landed on 3 strikeouts (over loss, -0.70u). First-inning markets: no plays, all graded negative EV. Read the June 15 prop card

June 8 tracked play graded a loss for -2.65u: Kyle Harrison was pulled after 2.1 innings (7 outs recorded), well short of his over 16.5 outs line, in a 15-14 Brewers win over the Athletics. Box score: 2.1 IP, 8 H, 8 ER, 4 K. Read the Kyle Harrison outs breakdown

June 7 units are four team total unders (Tigers U3.5, Astros U4.5, Blue Jays U4.5, Rockies U4.5); the strikeout board is analysis only after the model overhaul. Read the June 7 model reads and team total unders

June 6 board graded 1-5 for -6.07u: Kyle Bradish under 17.5 outs cashed at 12 recorded, while Braxton Ashcraft (5 K), Tatsuya Imai (8 K), Jack Leiter (2 K), Joe Ryan (18 outs) and Nolan McLean (18 outs) all came up short. First-inning markets were a documented pass, all 15 graded negative EV. Read the June 6 prop card