MLB Props Picks Today
2026 MLB Regular Season
May 15 strikeout model report posted: Clay Holmes under 4.5 strikeouts, Kyle Freeland over 3.5 strikeouts, Zack Littell over 3.5 strikeouts, Spencer Strider under 6.5 strikeouts, and Aaron Civale over 4.5 strikeouts lead the board. Read the full May 15 article · Archive Page 2 →
May 15th 2026 strikeout model report
Model board
Friday Strikeout Props
M15
Friday May 15 Slate · Pitcher Strikeouts
New articleThe May 15 live FanDuel strikeout board produced 11 official-filter rows. The public card leads with Clay Holmes Under 4.5 Ks +132, Kyle Freeland Over 3.5 Ks +118, Zack Littell Over 3.5 Ks +114, Spencer Strider Under 6.5 Ks -134, and Aaron Civale Over 4.5 Ks +130.
May 14th 2026 elite props report
11 events · 6,380 prop rows · 22 RFI rows
Strikeouts, Pitcher Outs and First-Inning Runs
M14
Thursday May 14 Slate · Pitcher Props + RFI
Graded 6-8The May 14 analyzer board is now graded against official box scores: Anthony Kay over 3.5 Ks won, Kris Bubic under 17.5 outs won, the pitcher/outs/RFI table finished 6-8 overall, and the card netted -2.01u.
May 13th 2026 run props analyzer
2 RFI threshold rows · official release card empty
NRFI Thresholds and Run-Total Watchlist
M13
Wednesday May 13 Slate · First-Inning Runs + Run Totals
Graded 8-2The May 13 analyzer rows are now graded: Padres/Brewers NRFI and Rays/Blue Jays NRFI both won, the Nationals/Reds run-total cluster swept, and the published table finished 8-2 for +5.80u.
May 12th 2026 model card graded
9-5 graded · +4.97u
RFI Bets and F5 Model Stack
M12
Tuesday May 12 Slate · First-Inning Runs + F5 Markets
Graded 9-5RFI bets finished 2-2 (-0.10u): Royals/White Sox YRFI and Tigers/Mets NRFI won, while Nationals/Reds YRFI and Rockies/Pirates NRFI lost. The model stack finished 7-3 (+5.07u), led by Giants F5 team total Over 1.5, White Sox F5 +0.5, Diamondbacks/Rangers F5 Over, Nationals/Reds F5 Over, Giants full-game team total Over, and White Sox full-game +1.5.
May 10th 2026 official card
5 official plays · RFI only
Five First-Inning Props: NRFI and YRFI Portfolio
M10
Sunday May 10 Slate · First-Inning Runs
Graded cardOfficial plays: Athletics/Orioles NRFI +120, Twins/Guardians YRFI +125, Braves/Dodgers YRFI +100, Pirates/Giants YRFI +120, and Yankees/Brewers NRFI -115. Pitcher props did not clear the official-card confirmation gate.
May 9th 2026 official card
3-2 graded · +0.65u
Four Strikeout Props and One Mets-Diamondbacks YRFI
M9
Saturday May 9 Slate · Strikeouts + First-Inning Runs
3-2 gradedOfficial plays: Cam Schlittler Over 5.5 Ks +106, Mets/Diamondbacks YRFI -110, Zack Littell Over 3.5 Ks +128, Anthony Kay Over 3.5 Ks -159, and Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 Ks +106. Each is tracked as 1.0 unit. The article includes model EV, replay notes, pitcher histories, opponent strikeout context, and first-inning team history.
May 7th 2026 first-inning card
Pirates/Diamondbacks YRFI · Mets/Rockies YRFI · Reds/Cubs NRFI
Three Official RFI Plays: Two YRFIs and One NRFI
RFI
Thursday May 7 Slate · First-Inning Runs
Official May 7 RFI Card
Graded 2-1 · +0.90uOfficial plays: Pirates/Diamondbacks YRFI -110 won, Mets/Rockies YRFI -110 lost, and Reds/Cubs NRFI -110 won. Each was tracked as 1.0 unit for a 2-1, +0.90u result.
May 5th 2026 official plays
Official MLBProps.com plays: 0 until prices are verified
No Official Plays Posted Without Live Odds Verification
M5
The May 5 model review started with CWS at LAA YRFI, ATL at SEA YRFI, and TOR at TB YRFI, but live YRFI market prices were not available from the configured odds feed. Because MLBProps.com official plays require a current playable line and price, no May 5 prop was moved from watchlist to official-pick status. The unofficial watchlist result was 2-1: CWS/LAA YRFI won, ATL/SEA YRFI lost, and TOR/TB YRFI won.
May 4th 2026 first-inning results
Reds/Cubs NRFI win · Orioles/Yankees NRFI loss · Red Sox/Tigers YRFI loss
Three First-Inning Picks Graded 1-2 (-0.65u)
FI
Monday May 4 Slate · First-Inning Runs
Graded 1-2 · -0.65u
The May 4 first-inning card is now graded against official MLB linescores. Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs NRFI won with a 0-0 first inning (+1.40u). Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees NRFI lost after New York scored twice in the first (-1.05u). Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers YRFI lost after a 0-0 first inning (-1.00u). Net result: 1-2, -0.65u.
May 3rd 2026 first-inning release
Rangers/Tigers · Diamondbacks/Cubs · Reds/Pirates
Three NRFI Picks With Calibrated EV
NRFI
Sunday May 3 Slate · First-Inning Runs
Calibrated EV Card
Three official forward-tracked NRFI rows cleared the May 3 first-inning model: Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers NRFI, Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs NRFI, and Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates NRFI. The article breaks down raw probability, synthetic -110 EV, calibrated probability, calibrated EV, price ceilings, and unit sizing.
May 2nd 2026 portfolio release
5 pitcher strikeout edges · 2 first-inning leans · 7.0 units total
7-Pick Portfolio for the Sunday May 3 Slate
MAY 3
Sunday Slate · 15 Games · Full Portfolio
7-Pick Portfolio
Michael King Under 5.5 Ks (-110, +44.03% EV) · Nolan McLean Under 6.5 Ks (+120, +36.77% EV) · Sean Burke Over 3.5 Ks (-130, +19.19% EV) · Seth Lugo Under 5.5 Ks (-114, +19.03% EV) · Emerson Hancock Over 4.5 Ks (-104, +7.43% EV) · Diamondbacks at Cubs NRFI lean (fair -130) · Dodgers at Cardinals YRFI lean (fair -118).
Wednesday pregame package
2 verified pitcher-prop pages · 1-1 record · -0.39u
April 29, 2026
Pregame Publishing Note
The April 29 real-line pitcher package is now graded against final box scores: Eduardo Rodriguez under cashed with 4 K, while Tarik Skubal under lost by one strikeout at 7 K. Net result: 1-1 for -0.39u.
ER
Under 4.5 Strikeouts
-118 FanDuel · -120 DraftKings
The strongest remaining real-line pitcher prop on the April 29 board. Rodriguez projects for just 3.42 strikeouts and the under still carries a 74.0% model hit rate.
TS
Under 6.5 Strikeouts
-139 FanDuel · -141 DraftKings
Skubal is elite, but the line is still too high relative to a 5.23-strikeout projection. The under remains above a 72% model hit rate with verified book pricing.
Saturday official card graded
6 official plays graded · 2-4 record · -2.29u
April 25, 2026
Grading Note
The April 25 late-slate board is now fully graded against official MLB final box scores. Brady Singer and Zack Wheeler cashed; Zac Gallen, Cole Ragans, MacKenzie Gore, and Jacob Misiorowski lost. Net result: 2-4 for -2.29u.
BS
Under 16.5 Outs
-101 DraftKings · 1.5u sizing
The model lands Singer at 14.01 outs and clears the under more than 75% of the time. The line still expects too much length for the current projection.
ZG
Over 3.5 Strikeouts
+116 FanDuel · 1.25u sizing
This is a threshold bet more than a ceiling bet. The model sits at 4.71 strikeouts and the board still pays plus money for Gallen to get to four.
CR
Under 6.5 Strikeouts
-120 FanDuel · 1.25u sizing
The juice tightened, but the threshold stayed too high. The current model still sits at 4.61 strikeouts and keeps the under above 80%.
ZW
Over 5.5 Strikeouts
+108 FanDuel · 1.25u sizing
Wheeler projects to 6.94 strikeouts and still gets posted at plus money. That combination is enough by itself to keep the over on the board.
MG
Under 6.5 Strikeouts
+100 FanDuel · 1.0u sizing
FanDuel left the under at even money while the model still projects just 5.17 strikeouts. That price is what gets the prop onto the page.
JM
Under 7.5 Strikeouts
-139 FanDuel · 1.0u sizing
This under is playable because the line finally reached 7.5. The model still sits at 5.60, which gives the bettor multiple paths to cash.
Friday slate
3 official plays graded · 3-0 sweep
April 24, 2026
Grading Note
This April 24 card is now fully graded against final box scores. The posted three-play strikeout-under board went 3-0 for +3.54u on the site tracker.
FV
Under 5.5 Strikeouts
-106 FanDuel · 1.5u sizing
This is the strongest live match from the verified strikeout-under lane. The model probability is 72.18%, the live EV is +40.28%, and the line sits in the exact common band that held up best in the local historical archive.
BB
Under 4.5 Strikeouts
+104 FanDuel · 1.0u sizing
Bello fits the cleaner 3.5/4.5 under subset that produced the best ROI in the merged local audit. The current board gives a 61.47% hit probability and +25.39% live EV at plus money.
AA
Under 4.5 Strikeouts
-114 FanDuel · 1.0u sizing
Abbott is the lowest-EV play on the card, but it still clears the live threshold and lands in the stronger 4.5-under bucket. Current board probability is 60.44% with +13.46% EV.
Page 1
Page 2 →
How We Evaluate MLB Player Props
Every prop on this page is filtered through a set of statistical inputs: the player's recent performance, the opposing lineup or pitcher's tendencies, park factors, and the posted line relative to those inputs.
For pitcher props, the key metrics are strikeout rate, swinging strike percentage, and opponent contact quality. For hitter props, the inputs include barrel rate, expected slugging, and platoon splits against the day's starting pitcher. See our advanced stats guide for a full breakdown of these metrics.
Confidence ratings reflect how strongly the data supports one side of the line. A "High Confidence" tag means the underlying numbers point clearly in one direction. A "Lean" means the edge is narrower and more dependent on game conditions.
Explore by Prop Type
Player Prop Profiles
View all player profiles ›Frequently Asked Questions About MLB Props Picks
What are MLB props picks?
MLB props picks are predictions on individual player performance outcomes, such as a pitcher's strikeout total, a batter's home runs, or total bases. Props focus on player-level markets rather than game outcomes like moneylines or spreads.
When are daily MLB prop picks posted?
Daily MLB prop picks are posted each morning before first pitch during the regular season. The page updates with fresh analysis based on that day's matchups, starting pitchers, and lineup data.
What types of MLB player props are covered?
This page covers pitcher strikeout props, home run props, hits props, total bases, stolen bases, RBI props, runs scored, and pitcher-specific markets like hits allowed and outs recorded.
How are prop confidence ratings determined?
Confidence ratings are based on how strongly the statistical data supports one side of the prop line. High Confidence means the matchup data, recent performance, and park factors all point in the same direction. Moderate and Lean ratings indicate narrower edges. Our advanced stats breakdown explains the metrics behind each rating.