MLB Props Picks Today

Board Date · July 30, 2026

July 30 headliner is a strikeout over priced like a coin flip on a line the pitcher's own rate clears. JP Sears over 3.5 strikeouts at -106 on FanDuel, Giants at Padres at Petco Park. Sears has landed on exactly 3 strikeouts in three straight outings, each a half strikeout short of tonight's line, after opening his season with 5, 4 and 5. Behind it: Andre Pallante over 4.5 at +140 against the Cubs, Noah Cameron under 4.5 at +104 against the Twins, and the BetLegend game card at its exact numbers: Giants +1.5 (-155, 1u), Giants team total over 3.5 (-125, 2u), Red Sox ML (-175, 2.5u). First-inning markets: pass, analysis only. Full breakdown with charts and the market table.

July 29 headliner is a strikeout over backed by a direct lineup comparison, not just a rate. Dustin May over 4.5 strikeouts at -162 on FanDuel, Cubs at Cardinals at Busch Stadium. May has struck out 8, 6, 7 and 9 hitters in four of his last seven starts, and tonight's Cubs lineup has struck out 973 times this season, more often than May's own Cardinals bats have struck out at the plate. His two shortest outings of the stretch, two thirds of an inning against Atlanta on July 2 and two innings at Kansas City on June 21, both ended with an early hook and five or more earned runs, the honest qualifier on an otherwise strong number. The board carries four more reads: Logan Webb under 5.5 at +106 against Milwaukee, a contact-manager profile fighting a strikeout-prone Brewers lineup; Jacob Lopez under 4.5 at -104 against Boston, leaning on a recent run of short and irregular outings; Davis Martin under 4.5 at -146 against the Yankees, a strong season rate that has gone quiet across his last six turns; and Grayson Rodriguez under 4.5 at +118 against Houston, a fade of a diminished arm even against the majors' most strikeout-prone offense. Five contracts made the page from 41 evaluated. Analysis only, no tracked pick. July 29 strikeout board

July 28 headliner is a strikeout over backed by a direct data point, not just a rate. Sandy Alcantara over 5.5 strikeouts at +116, Phillies at Marlins at loanDepot park. Alcantara has struck out 39 hitters across his last seven starts, 46.1 innings, and he already faced this exact Philadelphia lineup on June 17, striking out six of them in six innings without allowing a run. His two shortest strikeout nights of the stretch, three against Colorado on June 29 and three at Houston on July 22, both came with five earned runs allowed, the honest qualifier on an otherwise strong number. The board carries six more reads: Cade Cavalli over 4.5 at +118 against Toronto, a tough strikeout matchup carried by his own emerging 10.3 K/9 rate and 46 strikeouts over his last seven starts; Reid Detmers under 6.5 at -136 against Houston, leaning on a shrinking recent workload despite already beating this Astros lineup for nine strikeouts on June 10; Troy Melton over 5.5 at -113 against Baltimore, a rookie sensation (5-1, 1.95 ERA) facing the third most strikeout-prone lineup in the majors; Chase Burns over 6.5 at +112 against Cleveland, the board's most talented arm working through a two-start cold stretch; Christian Scott over 5.5 at +118 against Atlanta, backed by a direct precedent of seven strikeouts against these same Braves on July 3; and Gavin Williams under 7.5 at -130 against Cincinnati, a fade of three straight 11-strikeout starts and the board's most contrarian read. Seven contracts made the page from 41 evaluated, graded 0-6-1 (see below). July 28 strikeout board

July 27 headliner is a strikeout over, and it comes with the honest counterpoint stated up front. Brandon Sproat over 4.5 strikeouts at +104 on DraftKings, Brewers at Giants at Oracle Park, 6:45 PM Pacific. Sproat has struck out 34 hitters across his last six starts, 26.2 innings, an 11.5 strikeouts per nine rate well above his 9.45 season number, but San Francisco has struck out only 830 times in 2026, fifth fewest in baseball, so this bet leans on his own stuff rather than a favorable matchup. He cleared the 4.5 line in three of his last six starts and missed it in the other three. The board carries four more reads: Mitch Keller under 3.5 strikeouts at -170 against Arizona, the second toughest strikeout matchup in the majors at 767 team strikeouts, a value disagreement with a market that prices him as a heavy favorite to go over; Walbert Urena over 4.5 at -113 against Houston, a rookie whose own emerging 8.55 K/9 rate has cleared this number in four of his last six starts; Tyler Phillips over 3.5 at -136 against the Phillies, the board's riskiest number, with only nine strikeouts across his last five starts and zero of them clearing the line, leaning entirely on Philadelphia's strikeout-prone lineup to carry it; and Chase Burns over 6.5 at +112 against Cleveland, the board's most talented arm working through a two-start cold stretch. Five contracts made the page from 41 evaluated. Analysis only, no tracked pick. July 27 strikeout board

July 25 is a pass, and the reason is a market that disappeared rather than a lack of edge. Our 11:01 AM line check logged 48 real FanDuel markets, 24 pitcher strikeout lines and 24 outs recorded lines, spread across 13 of the day's 15 games: Paul Skenes at 6.5 strikeouts (-148) opposite Shota Imanaga at 5.5 in Pittsburgh, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Nolan McLean both at 6.5 in the same Dodgers-Mets game, Dylan Cease carrying the day's highest number at 7.5 against Sonny Gray's 4.5, Hunter Brown and Sean Burke both lined at 5.5 in the same Astros-White Sox game with the market favoring each pitcher's over and under in opposite directions. When the board that actually feeds this page ran at 4:18 PM, the identical fetch across all 27 events FanDuel had listed for today and tomorrow combined came back with zero pitcher prop markets posted anywhere. With no live market price to blend against, the model has nothing to grade. The model's own backtest, a 193-contract live-line replay from May 2026, shows the de-vigged FanDuel market beating a stats-only projection on Brier score (0.246 versus 0.261 and 0.266), which is why it anchors to the market rather than overriding it, and why an empty market means an empty board rather than a manufactured pick. Analysis only, no tracked pick, season record unchanged. July 25 market gap breakdown

July 24 headliner is a strikeout over, and it is the loudest number on the board once you throw out the loudest number on the board. Jared Jones over 5.5 strikeouts, priced around even money at +108 on DraftKings and closer to -109 on FanDuel, Cubs at Pirates at PNC Park. The case is form meeting matchup: Jones has struck out 23 hitters across 15 innings in his three July starts, going 6, 8 and 9, and carries a 10.8 strikeouts-per-nine rate on the season, while the Cubs arrive having struck out 977 times in 2026, the second most of any lineup in baseball behind only the Athletics. The rate says buy and the opponent says buy louder. The one honest worry is workload, not swing and miss: Jones has topped five innings only three times in nine starts, so a short outing of 17 or 18 batters can leave even an elite rate on five rather than six, which is why the price sits at even money instead of a heavy favorite. His last two starts pushed to six and five innings for eight and nine strikeouts, and that version clears this number by the fifth. The board also carries three supporting reads: Zebby Matthews over 4.5 at +112 against the Athletics, a matchup over on the game's whiff-leading offense rather than a bet on his 7.5 per-nine rate; Jacob Lopez under 4.5 against the Twins, a volume under on a 6.64 ERA, 1.73 WHIP arm who rarely gets past the fourth inning; and a lean on Trey Yesavage under 5.5 against Boston, the lineup that strikes out fewest in the majors at 730, the toughest strikeout matchup on the slate. The model's single strongest number, Dustin May over 5.5, never made the page because May is not starting, the Dodgers are sending Roki Sasaki against the Mets with Sean Manaea opposing, and a projection for a pitcher who is not pitching gets deleted rather than hedged. All reads are analysis for MLBProps.com readers. July 24 Jared Jones strikeout board

July 22 is a pass, and the reason is worth more than a play. The model flagged two contracts playable and both were cut on review. The headline number was Max Fried over 3.5 strikeouts at -158 on FanDuel, Pirates at Yankees in the nightcap of a Bronx doubleheader, graded strong at a 4.7 point edge, the loudest thing on the board. Fried was activated off the 15-day injured list that same morning, after a left elbow bone bruise that cost him 70 days and a single 3.0-inning, 52-pitch rehab outing five days earlier. The projection quietly assumed a full 24-batter start: run his 22.6 percent matchup-adjusted rate across 24 hitters and you get 79.0 percent to reach four strikeouts, which reproduces the model almost exactly. Across a realistic first-start-back workload of 17 to 20 batters the same arithmetic returns 53.5 to 66.1 percent, against a price that needs 61.2. The entire edge lived inside a pitch limit nobody outside the Yankees can verify, so it gets cut rather than hedged. FanDuel says the same thing louder: Fried's line sits at the board's floor tier of 3.5 beside Keider Montero, Martin Perez and Eric Lauer while Aaron Nola and Kyle Bradish sit at 5.5, the book posted no outs recorded market for him at all despite posting one for nine other starters on the slate, his alternate ladder stops at 7 or more, and his first pitch at 91.9 mph or slower is priced -160 with 94 and above at +650. Bubba Chandler over 4.5 at -140 was the other flagged play and it falls on its own log: 20.2 percent strikeout rate over 22.2 batters per outing, five or more strikeouts in just 9 of 19 trips, a 47.4 percent record against a price needing 58.3. This board cut Chandler on the same grounds on July 21. Everything here is analysis only, there is no tracked pick for July 22, and the season record is untouched. July 22 Fried strikeout pass

July 21 is a strikeout board and the filter is the story. The model ran 43 contracts and flagged seven, and three of them were cut for projecting rates their own start logs have never produced. The surviving read is Tatsuya Imai under 5.5 strikeouts at -156 on FanDuel, Marlins at Astros at Daikin Park: 52.0 innings across 13 starts is an even 4.00 per outing, the shortest leash on the slate, and the under has landed in 9 of 13 against a price that needs 60.9 percent. His 33 walks in 52 innings behind a 6.06 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP are why he leaves early, and his 10.90 strikeouts per nine, the highest rate on the board, are the honest risk if Houston lets him finish six. Cut: Chase Burns under 6.5 at +120 (over in 13 of 18 starts, a 72.2 percent over rate), Bubba Chandler over 4.5 at -128 (4.33 strikeouts per start, over in 7 of 18), and Reynaldo Lopez over 4.5 at +120 (9 starts in 22 appearances, 3.89 strikeouts per start, below the line itself). Kevin Gausman under 5.5 at -130 is the lone lean, facing a Tampa Bay offense that strikes out in a league-low 18.9 percent of its plate appearances. The pitcher outs board produced zero playable contracts from 17 evaluated. On first-inning runs the cleanest number is Orioles at Red Sox NRFI at -130, with Boston scoring early in 22.5 percent of games and Baltimore in 23.0 percent, the two quietest opening frames in baseball. Everything on this board is analysis only and none of it is a tracked pick. July 21 Imai strikeout board

July 19 headliner is a strikeout under on a former strikeout leader, and it is analysis only. Robbie Ray under 5.5 strikeouts at -132, Giants at Mariners at T-Mobile Park, 4:10 PM ET, opposing Logan Gilbert. The case is a mid-season identity change: Ray averages 4.74 strikeouts per outing with the under 5.5 landing in 11 of his 19 appearances, and his last four starts produced strikeout counts of 6, 2, 4, and 4 across 27 innings, a 5.33 per-nine clip that includes an eight-inning, two-strikeout shutout start in Atlanta on June 28. He is pitching deeper than he has all season, a 1.33 ERA over that stretch, while the whiffs walk out the door, and the model prices his over probability at 31 percent against a market implying 46. The honest counterpoint is the opponent and the cushion: Seattle strikes out in 23.10 percent of its plate appearances, ninth most in baseball, and Ray's own 57.9 percent season under rate clears the 56.9 percent break-even by barely a point. Fourteen contracts were evaluated, eight strikeout and six pitcher outs markets, and only the Ray under cleared as playable, with Eduardo Rodriguez under 3.5 at +122 the nearest miss against the fourth-lowest whiff lineup in baseball. Every outs contract graded negative after the market blend and no first-inning contract cleared the board, so there is no NRFI or YRFI lean today. The day's card carries three team plays with exact numbers: Cardinals Team Total Under 4.5 at -138 (1.5u), Nationals moneyline at -143 (2u), and Giants at Mariners Under 7.5 at -120 (2.5u). Model reads are analysis, not tracked picks. Robbie Ray strikeout card

July 18 headliner is a strikeout under on the best arm on the board, and it is analysis only. Tarik Skubal under 8.5 strikeouts at -138, Tigers at Angels in Anaheim, 10:07 PM ET, opposing Grayson Rodriguez. The case is workload, not stuff: Skubal misses bats at a 10.59 strikeouts-per-nine rate but averages just 6.85 strikeouts per start because his outings keep ending around the sixth inning, and the under 8.5 has landed in 9 of his 13 starts (69 percent) against a 58 percent break-even, with his last turn a five-inning, five-strikeout night against the Phillies. The honest counterpoint is loud and it is the opponent: the Angels own baseball's highest team strikeout rate at 25.13 percent, and Skubal went over 8.5 in three of his four starts across late June and early July, punching out 9 twice against the Yankees and 9 against the Athletics. The matchup fights the under and the innings carry it. The board also produced two more strong reads, Dustin May over 3.5 at -156 on a 4.94-per-start pace clearing a low line and Max Meyer under 5.5 at -106 betting his innings collapse before his strikeouts cash, plus four leans: Spencer Arrighetti under 5.5 at +118, Tomoyuki Sugano over 2.5 at -164, Jared Jones over 5.5 at +108, and J.T. Ginn over 4.5 at +118, the last a bulk arm with real role risk. No first-inning or pitcher outs contract cleared the board as a play, so there is no NRFI or outs lean today. All reads are analysis, not tracked picks. Graded 5-2: Skubal 9 K (Under 8.5 lost), May 6 K (Over 3.5 won), Meyer 5 K (Under 5.5 won), Arrighetti 6 K (Under 5.5 lost), Sugano 3 K (Over 2.5 won), Jones 9 K (Over 5.5 won), Ginn 7 K (Over 4.5 won). Tarik Skubal strikeout card

July 17 headliner is a strikeout under, and it is analysis only. Jake Bennett under 3.5 strikeouts at +128, Game 1 of the Rays at Red Sox split doubleheader at Fenway Park, 1:35 ET, opposing Griffin Jax. The case is structural rather than form-based: Tampa Bay strikes out in 18.91 percent of its plate appearances, the lowest rate of any lineup in baseball against a 22.10 percent league average, and the Rays hit .259 as a team. Bennett answers with an arsenal that has no put-away spin, a four-seamer at 33.6 percent usage and 93.0 mph, a sinker at 27.6 percent, a changeup at 25.6 percent, and a breaking ball on just 9.9 percent of his pitches, which is how a 2.64 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP coexist with a 6.61 strikeouts-per-nine rate. In two starts against these Rays he has 5 strikeouts across 10.1 innings, a 4.35 per-nine clip. The honest counterpoint is loud and it is his own record: Bennett averages 4.38 strikeouts a start, the under has hit in only 3 of his 8 starts (37.5 percent) against a 43.9 percent break-even, and he struck out 9 Colorado hitters on June 22. The matchup has to carry this one. The board cleared 4 leans out of 26 contracts, all strikeout markets: Reid Detmers under 6.5 at +100 is the best-supported read with model and 19-start record both near 58 percent against a 50 percent break-even, Spencer Miles under 4.5 at -170 is structurally right on a swingman averaging 3.33 innings per start but priced past its value, and Griffin Jax over 4.5 at -148 is the model's favorite and our least favorite with a 4.36 per-start average sitting below his own line. No NRFI, YRFI, or pitcher outs contract cleared the board today, so there is no first-inning play and we are not manufacturing one. All four reads are analysis, not tracked picks. Graded 3-1: Bennett 3 K (Under 3.5 won), Miles 4 K (Under 4.5 won), Jax 6 K (Over 4.5 won), Detmers 7 K (Under 6.5 lost). Jake Bennett strikeout card

July 12 headliner is a first-inning play. Phillies at Tigers No Runs First Inning (NRFI), taken as the first-inning Under 0.5 runs at -155 on DraftKings (1u), Comerica Park, 1:40 ET, Zack Wheeler opposite Tarik Skubal. This one is an arms case, not a lineup case: Wheeler owns a 1.29 first-inning ERA with a .143 average against and 19 strikeouts across his 14 opening frames, scoreless in 12 of 14 starts with eight straight clean firsts since May 29, while Skubal has struck out 17 hitters without a single walk in his 12 first innings, a .200 average against with his 4.50 first-inning ERA driven almost entirely by 5 solo home runs. The honest risk is loud on both halves: Philadelphia hits .247 with a .797 OPS and 20 home runs in the first inning, Detroit hits .278 with a .822 OPS, and -155 needs about 60.8 percent, the steepest first-inning price we have laid all season, playable only because the same market sits past -190 elsewhere and both arms carry sub-1.00 WHIPs. The model board also flags five strikeout reads as analysis only, led by MacKenzie Gore over 4.5 at +108 and Taj Bradley over 6.5 at -108, with Cade Cavalli over 5.5 at even money, Dustin May over 4.5 at -132, and Joey Cantillo under 4.5 at +130. First-inning market headlines the card. Phillies Tigers NRFI card

July 11 headliner is a first-inning play. Blue Jays at Padres No Runs First Inning (NRFI), taken as the first-inning Under 0.5 runs at -125 on DraftKings (1u), Petco Park, 8:40 ET, Trey Yesavage opposite Walker Buehler. The anchor is the bottom half: Yesavage holds first innings to a .174 average against with 12 strikeouts across his 13 opening frames and a scoreless first in 9 of 13 starts, including 5 of 6 on the road, and he draws a Padres offense hitting .190 with a .615 OPS in the first inning, 37 early runs in 94 games, one of the softest opening-frame lineups in baseball. Walker Buehler supports the top half with a scoreless first in 14 of 18 starts, 8 of 10 at pitcher-friendly Petco, and 22 strikeouts in his 18 opening frames, but he is also the honest risk: five first-inning runs across his last two starts (three on July 1, two on July 6) with a .723 first-inning OPS Toronto lineup waiting in the top half, and -125 needs about 55.6 percent, a bar the matchup fit clears with only a modest cushion. The model board also flags six strikeout reads as analysis only, led by Casey Mize over 5.5 at +108, Kyle Bradish over 5.5 at +112, and Tanner Bibee under 4.5 at -120, with Buehler over 3.5 at -132 pointing the same direction as the NRFI. First-inning market headlines the card. Result: Loss. The Padres scored twice in the bottom of the first inning off Trey Yesavage at Petco Park (Gavin Sheets bases-loaded walk, Ty France sacrifice fly) in San Diego's 8-7 win. NRFI lost, -1.25u. Blue Jays Padres NRFI card

July 10 headliner is a first-inning play. Mariners at Rays No Runs First Inning (NRFI), taken as the first-inning Under 0.5 runs at -113 on DraftKings (1u), Tropicana Field, 7:10 ET, Luis Castillo opposite Nick Martinez. The anchor is Martinez's command: a 2.61 ERA over 17 starts with a 1.13 WHIP and just 18 walks in 100 innings, a 1.62 walks-per-nine rate that ranks among the best in baseball and strangles the free baserunners early runs are built on. A first-inning run almost always starts with a runner, and Martinez hands them out less than nearly any starter alive, keeping the top of the frame quiet against Seattle. The honest risk is the other half: Luis Castillo carries a 4.79 ERA and a 0.98 home-runs-per-nine rate, so one Rays swing in the bottom of the first, or a leadoff walk and a double, is the loud way it plays over. This is a pitching-forward matchup between two sub-1.35 WHIP starters in a controlled indoor park, and -113 needs only about 53.1 percent. The model board also flags four strikeout reads as analysis only, led by Braxton Ashcraft over 6.5 at +116 and Robbie Ray under 5.5 at -130, with Sandy Alcantara over 5.5 at +110 and Brandon Sproat over 5.5 at +134. First-inning market headlines the card. Result: Win. Luis Castillo and Nick Martinez both posted a scoreless first inning at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay's 7-2 win. NRFI won, +1.00u. Mariners Rays NRFI card

July 9 headliner is a strikeout over. Bryce Miller over 5.5 strikeouts at -132 on FanDuel (1u), Mariners at Marlins, loanDepot park, 6:40 ET, opposing Janson Junk. Miller has quietly built one of the best lines of any starter in baseball, a 1.71 ERA and a 0.66 WHIP with a 10.6 strikeouts-per-nine rate, and the over is a current-form play: he has cleared 5.5 strikeouts in six straight starts (6, 9, 7, 7, 11, 8) and averages about 7.4 across his last eight (7, 4, 6, 9, 7, 7, 11, 8). Miami whiffs at a roughly league-average 21.5 percent team rate, a mild tailwind rather than a wall, and the opposing starter is a rusty Janson Junk activated off the 15-day injured list on a limited pitch count, an early exit waiting to happen rather than a threat to keep Miller's night short. The honest risk is the length of Miller's own outing, since a short five-inning start caps the total before the sixth strikeout, the way his four-strikeout night at the Athletics on May 25 played out, and -132 needs about 56.9 percent. The model board also flags Framber Valdez under 5.5 strikeouts at -146 as analysis only, and documents a pass on Janson Junk over 3.5 at -130 as an injury-return artifact. Result: Loss. Bryce Miller lasted only 5 innings at loanDepot park and struck out 3, short of the 5.5 line, the short-outing risk the writeup flagged. Over 5.5 lost, -1.32u. Bryce Miller strikeout card

July 8 headliner is a strikeout over. Walbert Urena over 4.5 strikeouts at -102 on FanDuel (1u), Angels at Rangers, Globe Life Field, 8:05 ET, opposing MacKenzie Gore. Urena is a 22-year-old righty who has quietly become the Angels' steadiest arm, a 3.03 ERA with an 8.7 strikeouts-per-nine rate across 77.1 innings. The over is a form-and-matchup lean: he has cleared 4.5 strikeouts in seven of his last eight starts (6, 5, 7, 7, 3, 6, 5, 6) and struck out six of these same Rangers over five innings on May 23, the most recent look at this exact lineup. His five-per-start average sits right on the line at a near-even price that needs just 50.5 percent, and Texas whiffs at a roughly league-average 22.5 percent team rate, no contact wall to suppress the total. The honest risk is his command, a 4.8 walks-per-nine rate that can run up his pitch count and end the start before the strikeouts pile up, the way his three-strikeout, seven-inning night at Arizona on June 15 played out. The model board also flags Michael King under 4.5 strikeouts at -122 as analysis only, a Padres starter whose recent totals of 5, 5, 5, 1, 3 and 4 have his outings running shorter. Walbert Urena strikeout card

July 7 headliner is a first-inning play. Angels at Rangers No Runs First Inning (NRFI), taken as the first-inning Under 0.5 runs at -134 on DraftKings (1.5u), Globe Life Field, 8:05 ET, Jose Soriano opposite Jacob deGrom. The twist is that the risk here is the ace. deGrom carries a 3.48 season ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and 10.82 strikeouts per nine, but his first inning has been a 9.00 ERA disaster with 8 first-inning home runs, half of the 16 he has allowed all year, and he faces an Angels lineup with 21 first-inning homers. The case for the NRFI is that deGrom's first-inning damage is solo-homer variance on an arm that walks nobody, 6 walks against 24 strikeouts in 17 first innings, the profile that regresses toward his elite season line, while Jose Soriano anchors the other half with a clean 3.00 first-inning ERA, a .613 OPS against in the frame, and one first-inning homer all year. The honest risk is loud: one Angels swing off deGrom in the top of the first ends it, at a price that needs 57.3 percent. The model board also flags three strikeout reads as analysis only, led by Tarik Skubal under 8.5 at -142 and Taj Bradley over 6.5 at +120. Result: Loss. The Angels scored twice in the top of the first inning off Jacob deGrom at Globe Life Field (Jorge Soler RBI double, Josh Lowe RBI single) in an 8-3 Texas win. NRFI lost, -2.01u. Angels Rangers NRFI card

July 5 headliner is a first-inning play. Blue Jays at Mariners No Runs First Inning (NRFI), taken as the first-inning Under 0.5 runs at -124 on DraftKings (1u), T-Mobile Park, 5:00 ET, Trey Yesavage opposite Emerson Hancock. The case is Hancock's first inning, quietly his best inning all season: a 1.69 first-inning ERA with a scoreless first in 13 of 16 starts, a .164 average against in the frame, and just 3 first-inning walks, pointed at a Toronto offense that has scored a first-inning run in only 23.6 percent of its games with 9 first-inning homers all year. Yesavage answers with a .186 first-inning average against and 8 clean firsts in 12 starts, including three of his last four. The honest risk is the price, which needs 55.4 percent, and Seattle's homer-driven early offense, 17 first-inning home runs against Yesavage's 4.01 walks per nine. The raw season rates sit close to fair at this number, so the edge is the matchup fit, and the stake stays one unit. The model board also flags five strikeout reads as analysis only, led by Hancock over 4.5 strikeouts at -104, a signal that points the same direction as the NRFI. Result: Win. Both Yesavage and Hancock posted a scoreless first inning at T-Mobile Park in Seattle's 4-0 win. NRFI won, +1.00u. Blue Jays Mariners NRFI card

July 4 headliner is a strikeout over. Michael Wacha over 4.5 strikeouts at -111 on FanDuel (1u), Phillies at Royals, Kauffman Stadium, 8:10 ET, opposing Jesus Luzardo. Wacha carries only a 19 percent strikeout rate, but this is a workload over: he averages 6.4 innings per start, and volume is what carries a low line. His 4.94 strikeouts per outing sit just under the number, he has cleared 4.5 in 12 of 17 starts (a 70.6 percent rate against a 52.6 percent break-even), and the Phillies whiff at an above-average 23.5 percent, a tailwind rather than a headwind. His ceiling starts of eight, seven, and six show five is well within reach when counts run deep. The honest risk is a short, soft-contact night like his June dip, when he fanned two, two, and three against the Twins, Rangers, and Nationals. One unit because the edge is a volume lean rather than a bet on dominant stuff. Result: Win. Wacha struck out 7 over 6 innings, clearing the 4.5 line. Over 4.5 won, +1.0u. Michael Wacha strikeout card

July 3 headliner is a first-inning play. Padres at Dodgers No Runs First Inning (NRFI) at -114 (1u), equivalent to Under 0.5 first-inning runs, Dodger Stadium, 10:10 ET, Shohei Ohtani opposite Michael King. The case is elite first-inning form: Ohtani has thrown a scoreless first in all 13 of his starts and has not allowed a first-inning run all season, holding the frame to a .152 average with a 1.58 ERA, while Michael King has been clean in 16 of 17 opening frames with a .094 first-inning average against. The Padres are a soft early offense at a .589 first-inning OPS. The honest risk is the price, which needs 53.3 percent, and the Dodgers' potent early bats on the bottom half of the inning, a .822 first-inning OPS with 19 first-inning home runs, against King's 3.64 walks per nine. The exchange first-inning fair has sat near 56 percent, so -114 carries real value. The same slate also flags two model strikeout unders as analysis only, Dylan Cease under 7.5 and Reid Detmers under 6.5, not tracked picks. First-inning markets headline the card. Result: Loss. The Padres scored in the top of the first inning at Dodger Stadium. NRFI lost, -1.14u. Padres Dodgers NRFI card

July 2 headliner is a first-inning play. Tigers at Rangers No Runs First Inning (NRFI) at -137 (1u), with a FanDuel alternative of Under 0.5 first-inning runs at -148, Globe Life Field, 8:05 ET, Framber Valdez opposite Nathan Eovaldi. The case is recent first-inning form and control: Valdez has opened with a scoreless first in four straight starts and 12 of 17 overall, Eovaldi in five straight and 10 of 16, and Eovaldi walks just 2.06 per nine, one of the lowest rates in baseball, which strangles the free baserunners that create early runs. The Tigers are held scoreless in the first inning 68.6 percent of the time and the Rangers 70.1 percent, two middling early offenses. The honest risk is the price, which needs 57.8 percent, and a leadoff extra-base hit off Eovaldi, who has still allowed a first-inning run in six of sixteen starts. The same game also carries a strong strikeout read: Framber Valdez under 5.5 strikeouts around -142, a pitch-to-contact profile at 7.24 strikeout per nine who has finished under 5.5 in 12 of 17 outings, tracked as analysis. First-inning markets headline the card. Result: Win, +1.0u. Framber Valdez and Nathan Eovaldi each posted a scoreless first inning at Globe Life Field. NRFI won. Tigers Rangers NRFI card

July 1 headliner is a plus-money strikeout over. Michael McGreevy over 3.5 strikeouts at +128 on FanDuel (1u), Cardinals at Braves, Truist Park, opposing Reynaldo Lopez. McGreevy is a contact-first sinkerballer with a modest 5.74 strikeout per nine rate and a 3.12 ERA, but his 3.56 per-start average clears a low 3.5 line and the plus price needs only 43.9 percent to profit while a rate projection lands the over near 48 percent. His ceiling starts of nine, six, and five strikeouts show four is reachable. The honest risk is his floor, four one-strikeout starts this year, against a Braves lineup that makes contact at a 21.2 percent strikeout rate. Andrew Abbott over 4.5 strikeouts at +130 (0.5u) is the lean, a Reds lefty at Milwaukee whose last five starts all cleared five strikeouts (5, 6, 5, 6, 6) at plus money against a 21.2 percent Brewers lineup. Tatsuya Imai under 5.5 at -150 is a documented pass: his season under rate of seven in eleven is real, but back-to-back starts of 11 and 10 strikeouts flip the recent signal and the price offers no cushion. First-inning markets: documented pass, all negative EV. Result: 0-2, -1.50u. Michael McGreevy struck out only 3 over 6 innings in a 5-1 Braves win over the Cardinals at Truist Park, short of the line (over 3.5 lost, -1.00u). Andrew Abbott struck out just 3 over 5 innings in a 4-2 Brewers win over the Reds (over 4.5 lost, -0.50u). Michael McGreevy strikeout card

June 30 board carries two plus-money strikeout unders for 1 unit total. Mike Burrows under 4.5 strikeouts at +110 on FanDuel (0.5u), Twins at Astros, Daikin Park, a 7.28 strikeout per nine arm whose median start is four strikeouts and who has landed under 4.5 in eight of his 15 starts (game log clusters on threes), against a Twins lineup that whiffs at a moderate 21.4 percent. Justin Wrobleski under 4.5 at +118 (0.5u), the Dodgers lefty with a 5.53 strikeout per nine rate, one of the lowest among regular starters, who has finished with four or fewer strikeouts in nine of 14 outings despite a 2.71 ERA, at the Athletics (22.4 percent team strikeout rate). Both are plus money, with break-evens of 47.6 and 45.9 percent beneath each pitcher's real under rate. The honest risk on both is a deep, swing-and-miss start, which is why each stake is a half unit. Result: 1-1, +0.05u. Mike Burrows struck out 3 over 5 innings in a 6-4 Astros win over the Twins, under 4.5 (+110, +0.55u). Justin Wrobleski went the other way with a career-high 11 strikeouts over 7 innings against the Athletics, over the line (under 4.5 lost, -0.50u). Burrows and Wrobleski strikeout card

June 29 headliner is a strikeout under. Robert Gasser under 5.5 strikeouts at -102 on FanDuel (1u), Reds at Brewers, American Family Field, 7:40 ET. Gasser misses bats at a 9.3 strikeout per nine rate, but the prop is a volume market and he has not thrown a pitch in the seventh inning all year. Six starts, never past six innings, an average of just under five, and a strikeout count that has landed under 5.5 in four of those six outings (3, 4, 5, 7, 5, 7). His 5.2 per-start average sits below the line before any matchup read, and -102 is barely above a coin flip at 50.5 percent break-even. The honest risk is the matchup: the Reds whiff at 26.4 percent with five regulars above 27 percent, a free-swinging lineup that can hand him a quick six if he is stretched the way he was June 21 at Atlanta (6 IP, 7 K). One unit because the lean is thin but real. Result: Win. Gasser struck out 5 over 5.2 innings in a 5-3 Brewers win over the Reds, under the line. Under 5.5 won, +1.0u. Gasser strikeout card

June 28 headliner is a first-inning play. Braves at Giants No Run First Inning (NRFI) at -150 on DraftKings (1u), with Chris Sale and Robbie Ray both owning the opening frame at Oracle Park. Sale brings a 2.14 ERA and a 1.29 first-inning ERA with 20 strikeouts in the first inning across 14 starts, coming off 5.2 scoreless against Milwaukee on June 20. Ray has not allowed a first-inning run in his last five starts and blanked these same Braves over 6.1 innings with eight strikeouts on June 16. Add an Atlanta offense just shut out 5-0 the night before and the Oracle Park marine layer that swallows early home runs. The honest risk is the price: -150 needs a 60 percent break-even, and Ray's 3.70 season ERA means one walk-and-double inning is how it loses. Result: Win. Sale and Ray both posted a scoreless first frame at Oracle Park. NRFI won, +1.0u. Braves Giants NRFI card

June 27 board carries four tracked strikeout props for 3 units total. Reid Detmers under 7.5 strikeouts at -140 (1u), an Angels lefty who misses bats at a 10-plus K/9 clip but averages just 6.67 per start on six-inning outings, against the Athletics. Kyle Harrison over 5.5 at -148 (1u), the Brewers lefty with a 10.9 K/9 and a 2.50 ERA who has dominated the Cubs, including 11 strikeouts over seven shutout innings at Wrigley on May 20. Foster Griffin under 6.5 at -166 (0.5u), a half-unit lean on the Nationals lefty whose recent log of 9, 6, 5, 4, 5 and 6 sits under the line in five of six even as his season pace runs a hair high, at Baltimore. Slade Cecconi under 4.5 at -132 (0.5u), a half-unit lean on the Guardians righty averaging 3.88 strikeouts per start against a whiff-heavy Seattle lineup that is the honest risk. First-inning markets: documented pass, all negative EV. Detmers and Harrison card

June 26 board carried five tracked strikeout props for 4 units total. Patrick Corbin under 3.5 strikeouts at +118 (1u), the faded Blue Jays veteran averaging 3.36 strikeouts per start who has not finished the fifth inning in his last two outings, against Texas. Trevor Rogers under 4.5 at +108 (1u), an Orioles lefty averaging 3.86 per start whom Washington has battered for a .357 team average with just three strikeouts total against him. Paul Skenes under 8.5 at -147 (1u), elite but priced nearly two strikeouts over his 6.69 per start pace on a six-inning workload, facing the Reds. Joey Cantillo under 5.5 at -122 (0.5u), a half unit because his 4.75 season pace fights a hot recent log of 7, 4 and 9 and a whiff-heavy Seattle lineup. Roki Sasaki over 5.5 at -120 (0.5u), a half-unit lean on a sharper splitter and a rising whiff rate at San Diego. First-inning markets: documented pass, all negative EV. Corbin and Skenes card

June 25 board graded 1-1 for +0.43u. Cade Cavalli over 4.5 strikeouts at -144 (1u) cashed, the confirmed Nationals starter punching out 7 over 6 innings against the Phillies for +1.0u. Jeffrey Springs under 4.5 strikeouts at -114 (0.5u) lost, the Athletics left-hander getting deep for 6 strikeouts over 5.1 innings against the Giants, over the line, for -0.57u. We passed Kevin Gausman under 5.5 at -150 because his 5.56 average sat right on the line at too steep a price. First-inning markets: documented pass, all negative EV. Cavalli and Springs card

June 24 board graded 1-1 for -1.04u. Braxton Ashcraft over 5.5 strikeouts at -140 (0.5u) cashed, the Pirates power arm punching out 10 against the Mariners for +0.50u. Matthew Liberatore over 3.5 strikeouts at -154 (1u) lost, the Cardinals lefty managing only 3 strikeouts against the Diamondbacks, one short of the four he needed, for -1.54u. The half-unit second leg landed while the anchor came up short. First-inning markets: documented pass, all negative EV. Liberatore and Ashcraft card

June 23 board carried two tracked strikeout unders for 1.5 units total. Robbie Ray under 6.5 strikeouts at -162 (1u), a Giants lefty with an elite 10.51 K/9 who has cleared 6.5 in only two of fifteen starts because his innings keep ending in the fifth, his last seven going 2, 1, 3, 6, 4, 3 and 8. Nick Lodolo under 4.5 strikeouts at -168 (0.5u), a Reds lefty back from a blister with a modest 6.16 K/9 and exactly four strikeouts per start, under 4.5 in five of eight, facing a contact Milwaukee lineup that whiffs only 22.0 percent against lefties. We dropped the model's loudest strong lean, Luinder Avila over 3.5 at -172, as a swingman artifact. First-inning markets: documented pass, all negative EV. Ray and Lodolo card

June 22 board graded 1-1 for -0.22u. Dylan Cease over 6.5 strikeouts at -138 (1u) cashed, the American League strikeout leader punching out 8 over 5.2 innings against Houston in a 4-2 Toronto win (+1.00u). Andre Pallante over 3.5 strikeouts at -122 (1u) lost, the Cardinals righty managing only 2 strikeouts across 6 strong innings (6 H, 1 ER) in a 3-2 win over Arizona (-1.22u). First-inning markets: documented pass, all graded negative EV. Cease and Pallante card

June 21 board carries two tracked strikeout unders for 1.5 units total. Emmet Sheehan under 6.5 strikeouts at -115 (1u), a Dodgers arm with a near double digit K/9 whose short, managed starts have him over 6.5 in only four of thirteen outings, drawing a high strikeout Orioles lineup that is the honest counterweight. Logan Gilbert under 6.5 strikeouts at +104 (0.5u), a Mariners righty whose recent starts keep ending in the fifth and sixth inning with totals of 5, 6, 6, 5 and 4, the plus price carrying a half unit lean against a Red Sox lineup that whiffs at a high rate. First-inning markets: documented pass. Sheehan and Gilbert card

June 20 board graded 1-2 for -1.09u. Cade Cavalli over 4.5 strikeouts at -108 (1u) lost, the Nationals righty getting a quick hook after 2.2 innings with just 1 strikeout (6 H, 3 BB) against the Rays. Joey Cantillo under 4.5 strikeouts at -102 (0.5u) lost, the Guardians lefty flipping his profile with a career-high-tying 8 innings and 9 strikeouts against the Astros. The first-inning play cashed: Brewers at Braves NRFI (No Runs First Inning) at -170 (0.5u) won, with Kyle Harrison perfect through four and a scoreless opening frame on both sides. Cavalli and Cantillo card

June 19 board graded 2-0 for +2.08u: Ranger Suarez struck out 5 over 6.2 innings while carrying a no-hitter into the seventh, cashing the under 5.5 at +108 (+1.08u), and Bryce Miller struck out 7 over 5.0 innings, cashing the over 4.5 at -162 (+1.00u). Same game, opposite directions, both home. First-inning markets: documented pass, priced near fair. Suarez and Miller card

June 18 board carries three tracked props for 2.5 units total. Ryan Weathers over 5.5 strikeouts at -122 (1u), a Yankees lefty with a 9.81 K/9 drawing a White Sox lineup that whiffs 23.9 percent of the time. Noah Cameron over 4.5 strikeouts at +108 (1u), a Royals lefty with an 8.23 K/9 against a 20.7 percent strikeout Cardinals lineup, the plus money doing the work. Matthew Liberatore under 15.5 outs recorded at -110 (0.5u), a Cardinals lefty whose starts keep shrinking to 4.1 innings against a contact heavy Royals lineup. First-inning markets: documented pass, priced near fair. Weathers card · Cameron card · Liberatore card

June 17 board graded 2-0 for +2.00u: Javier Assad struck out only 1 over 5.2 innings, cashing the under 4.5 at -160 (+1.00u), and Braxton Ashcraft struck out 7 over 6.0 innings, cashing the over 5.5 at -104 (+1.00u). First-inning and batter markets were a documented pass. Read the June 17 prop card

June 16 headliner graded a loss for -1.50u: Dylan Cease over 7.5 strikeouts at +105 FanDuel (1.5u) landed on exactly 7 strikeouts over 5.0 innings against Boston, one short of the line. First-inning markets: pass, analysis only. Read the June 16 Cease prop card

June 15 board graded 1-3 for -2.07u: Dustin May over 5.5 strikeouts cashed with a 9-strikeout complete-game shutout (+0.63u), while MacKenzie Gore went the wrong way with 10 strikeouts in a deep start (under loss, -1.00u), Walbert Urena managed only 3 strikeouts (over loss, -1.00u), and J.T. Ginn also landed on 3 strikeouts (over loss, -0.70u). First-inning markets: no plays, all graded negative EV. Read the June 15 prop card

June 8 tracked play graded a loss for -2.65u: Kyle Harrison was pulled after 2.1 innings (7 outs recorded), well short of his over 16.5 outs line, in a 15-14 Brewers win over the Athletics. Box score: 2.1 IP, 8 H, 8 ER, 4 K. Read the Kyle Harrison outs breakdown

June 7 units are four team total unders (Tigers U3.5, Astros U4.5, Blue Jays U4.5, Rockies U4.5); the strikeout board is analysis only after the model overhaul. Read the June 7 model reads and team total unders

June 6 board graded 1-5 for -6.07u: Kyle Bradish under 17.5 outs cashed at 12 recorded, while Braxton Ashcraft (5 K), Tatsuya Imai (8 K), Jack Leiter (2 K), Joe Ryan (18 outs) and Nolan McLean (18 outs) all came up short. First-inning markets were a documented pass, all 15 graded negative EV. Read the June 6 prop card