Best MLB Props Today May 9, 2026: Pitcher Strikeout Props and Mets-Diamondbacks YRFI
The May 9 MLBProps.com card is built around four strikeout props and one first-inning run angle. The card comes from the live pitcher-prop board, first-inning model board, replay checks, recent pitcher histories, opponent strikeout profiles, and team first-inning results.
Official MLBProps.com Card for May 9
All plays below are published as pending site picks. Use the listed price as the target number and do not chase a stale market after a major move.
| Rank | Pick | Book / Price | Model | Edge | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cam Schlittler Over 5.5 strikeouts | FanDuel +106 | 71.1% | +46.5% EV | 1.0u |
| 2 | Mets @ Diamondbacks YRFI | -110 target | 56.3% | +7.5% EV | 1.0u |
| 3 | Zack Littell Over 3.5 strikeouts | DraftKings +128 | 63.7% | +45.1% EV | 1.0u |
| 4 | Anthony Kay Over 3.5 strikeouts | FanDuel -159 | 78.5% | +27.8% EV | 1.0u |
| 5 | Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 strikeouts | FanDuel +106 | 69.4% | +42.9% EV | 1.0u |
Card Snapshot
How We Built the Card
This is not a one-screen sort by projected value. The card was stress-tested through three layers: the live May 9 model board, replay performance by bet family, and player/team histories. For pitcher props, the filter compared projection gaps, market price, modeled probability, recent pitcher hit rates, season-to-date form, and the opposing offense's strikeout profile. For first-inning bets, the filter compared the model's fair probability against recent team YRFI/NRFI results and the combined first-inning profile of the matchup.
The strict automated pitcher-prop publisher returned zero official candidates because its proof gate requires a full historical line match. That is useful discipline, but it can also leave playable live board edges unpublished when the market is moving. This card is therefore a manual MLBProps.com model release using the live DraftKings and FanDuel odds snapshot, with the same record-tracking rules used for the rest of the site.
Replay and Back-Test Notes
The pitcher strikeout projection validation remains directionally useful. From 2022 through 2025, the strikeout model beat the baseline projection error every season, with seasonal mean absolute error clustered around 1.87 to 1.94 strikeouts. That does not make a single prop automatic, but it supports using the model as the first filter before checking the pitcher and opponent context.
The synthetic pitcher-prop replay also supported the market logic. The positive-edge strikeout replay finished profitable in each of the last four completed seasons tested: +42.09 units in 2022, +45.82 units in 2023, +19.91 units in 2024, and +36.36 units in 2025. The first-inning synthetic replay was also profitable in every tested season from 2022 through 2025, including +25.09 units in 2022, +66.91 units in 2023, +57.82 units in 2024, and +105.82 units in 2025.
Those replays are not a promise for May 9. They are the reason we are willing to publish a compact card when the live board, the historical samples, and the matchup filters point in the same direction.
Pick 1: Cam Schlittler Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+106 FanDuel)
Schlittler is the top pitcher-prop play on the May 9 board. The model projects 7.09 strikeouts against a 5.5 line, giving him a 1.59-strikeout cushion over the number. The modeled over probability is 71.1%, which creates a +46.5% expected-value mark at +106.
The history check is strong enough to keep the play at the top of the card. In the local pitcher sample, Schlittler cleared this type of number in 83.3% of his 2024-and-forward starts and was perfect in the 2026 sample available to the model. The opponent strikeout context is the main caution; the matchup does not grade as the most strikeout-friendly spot on the board. Even with that caution, the projection gap, probability, and price make this the best combination of ceiling and value.
Bet: Cam Schlittler Over 5.5 strikeouts at +106 or better. Playable down to roughly even money. Below that, reduce stake or pass.
Pick 2: Mets @ Diamondbacks YRFI (-110 Target)
The top first-inning play is Mets-Diamondbacks YRFI. The model prices a first-inning run at 56.3%, which is enough to create +7.5% EV against a -110 target. It is the only RFI bet on the board with both the model number and the combined team history working cleanly together.
The team-history layer supports the model. The combined first-inning profile grades around 58.5%, with the recent 10-game blend around 55.0%. The Mets have played to a 55.0% YRFI rate in the current sample, while Arizona sits higher at 61.9%. That gives the bet a cleaner profile than the Astros-Reds NRFI, which showed a positive model edge but failed the team-history check.
Bet: Mets @ Diamondbacks YRFI at -110 or better. If the price moves past -120, this becomes a smaller play.
Pick 3: Zack Littell Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+128 DraftKings)
Littell's over is the best price-adjusted lower-line strikeout prop on the board. The model projects 4.38 strikeouts against a 3.5 line, with a 63.7% over probability. At +128, that creates a +45.1% EV mark and gives the play a favorable payout profile without needing a six- or seven-strikeout ceiling game.
The historical layer is useful here because the line is only 3.5. Littell has cleared comparable over positions in 64.2% of the 2024-and-forward sample and 66.7% in the available 2026 sample. The opposing lineup does not carry the highest strikeout rate on the slate, but the opponent has allowed overs on this line range at a strong clip in the current-year sample. That combination keeps Littell on the official card.
Bet: Zack Littell Over 3.5 strikeouts at +128. Still playable at plus money; the edge thins quickly if the market flips to heavy juice.
Pick 4: Anthony Kay Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-159 FanDuel)
Kay has two playable paths on the board: the safer Over 3.5 at -159 and the aggressive Over 4.5 at +140. The official site card uses Over 3.5 because it is the cleaner record-tracking play, while the +140 number is listed as an aggressive alternate.
The model projects Kay for 5.38 strikeouts. Against the 3.5 line, the over probability is 78.5% and the expected value is +27.8%. The pitcher sample is small, but he cleared this number in all four recent starts available to the model, and the opposing lineup allowed this side of the bet at a strong rate in the current sample. The risk is sample size, not model disagreement.
Bet: Anthony Kay Over 3.5 strikeouts at -159. Aggressive alternate: Over 4.5 at +140 for smaller stake only.
Pick 5: Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+106 FanDuel)
Yesavage is the highest-volatility official play, but the opponent context is too strong to leave off the card. The model projects 6.96 strikeouts against a 5.5 line and gives the over a 69.4% probability. At +106, the live price creates +42.9% expected value.
The caution is pitcher sample size. The local pitcher history is thin, and that is why this is not ranked ahead of Schlittler or Littell. The reason it still makes the card is the matchup. The opposing offense carries the highest strikeout-profile grade in the May 9 diagnostic set, with a strikeout-rate percentile at the very top of the board. This is exactly the type of spot where a small pitcher sample can still be playable if the market leaves plus money on a live projection gap.
Bet: Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 strikeouts at +106. Keep it to a flat unit because the pitcher history is thinner than the model edge.
Near Misses and Leans
Aaron Civale Over 4.5 strikeouts at +140 was the closest pitcher prop to making the official card. The opponent strikeout context is excellent, and the model gives him a real path over the number. The reason it stays off the main five is price-versus-line choice: Over 3.5 is safer but expensive, while Over 4.5 is attractive but more volatile.
Tigers-Royals NRFI and Cardinals-Padres NRFI were the next first-inning options. Tigers-Royals had the better model number, while Cardinals-Padres had a strong historical NRFI profile. Both are playable leans, but Mets-Diamondbacks YRFI was the only first-inning play that cleared the card as a favorite.
Astros-Reds NRFI was intentionally left off the card. The model number showed value, but the team-history layer did not confirm it. Houston and Cincinnati have not produced a clean enough NRFI profile in the current sample to justify publishing that bet as an official play.
Bankroll Plan
The May 9 card is five flat one-unit plays for a total exposure of 5.0 units. Do not parlay the card. Do not increase stake because several props show large modeled EV. Strikeout props still carry role risk, pitch-count risk, umpire risk, and lineup risk. First-inning bets carry high inning-level variance even when the model edge is real.
The cleanest execution plan is to play the listed number or better, reduce stake if the market moves against the card, and pass if the price is no longer close to the published target.
Final May 9 MLBProps.com Picks
- Cam Schlittler Over 5.5 strikeouts +106, 1.0u
- Mets @ Diamondbacks YRFI -110, 1.0u
- Zack Littell Over 3.5 strikeouts +128, 1.0u
- Anthony Kay Over 3.5 strikeouts -159, 1.0u
- Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 strikeouts +106, 1.0u