Best MLB Props Today May 25, 2026: Kelly Under, Warren Over, Bibee Outs and a Yankees-Royals NRFI
The Memorial Day board is a full 13-game slate, and the model surfaced a four-play card that spreads across all three of our tracked markets. Every confirmed probable starter was pulled from the FanDuel public board, projected with a Poisson model anchored to verified 2026 strikeouts-per-start and adjusted for each opponent's strikeout rate, then ranked by expected value. What survived the filter: Merrill Kelly under 4.5 strikeouts at +104, Will Warren over 5.5 strikeouts at +124, Tanner Bibee under 17.5 outs at +104, and a Yankees-Royals no-run first inning at +102. All four are priced at plus money, which is unusual and the reason the card carries real value.
Fast Card
Verdict: Kelly under 4.5 is the headline because the model makes the under 68.6 percent on a pitcher whose 5.93 strikeouts-per-nine rate projects to roughly 3.7 strikeouts per start, well under the posted line, and the book is asking plus money on the side the model loves. Warren over 5.5 is the contrast play, a genuine swing-and-miss arm at 10.66 strikeouts per nine whose projection clears the line, available at a generous +124. Bibee under 17.5 outs leans on a starter averaging just over 16 outs per start while pitching for a team that has given him short leashes. The Yankees-Royals no-run first inning at plus money pairs two of the sharpest ERAs on the board.
The morning snapshot covered all 13 MLB games and 26 confirmed pitcher strikeout markets, 18 outs-recorded markets, and the first-inning run market on every game, all from the FanDuel public board. Each starter was projected with a Poisson model using 2026 strikeouts and outs per start, adjusted for opponent strikeout rate, then filtered to a minimum three-start sample and ranked by expected value against the live FanDuel price.
The Board, Ranked
The Monday theme is a split card: a contact arm the market is pricing as if he misses more bats than he does, a true strikeout arm available at a plus number, an inning-eater the model says will fall just short of his outs line, and a first inning pairing two of the lowest ERAs on the slate. The unusual part is that every play is priced at plus money, so the edge comes both from the model gap and from the favorable price.
| Rank | Play | Game | Model Prob | Fair Odds | Live Price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merrill Kelly under 4.5 strikeouts | Diamondbacks @ Giants | 68.6% | -219 | +104 FanDuel | +40.0% |
| 2 | Tanner Bibee under 17.5 outs | Nationals @ Guardians | 62.6% | -168 | +104 FanDuel | +27.8% |
| 3 | Will Warren over 5.5 strikeouts | Yankees @ Royals | 56.3% | -129 | +124 FanDuel | +26.1% |
| 4 | Yankees-Royals no run in 1st | Yankees @ Royals | ~53% | -113 | +102 FanDuel | +7% |
Card order on the ticket weights Kelly at 1.5 units as the widest edge on the board, then Warren, Bibee, and the NRFI at one unit each. The Fair Odds column is each play's model probability converted back to an American price, so the gap between the fair number and the live FanDuel price is the literal definition of the edge.
Why Kelly Leads
Merrill Kelly is the confirmed Arizona starter against the Giants at Oracle Park, and he is the cleanest model-versus-market read on the board. His season ERA sits at 5.71 across seven starts, but the number that matters for this prop is his strikeout rate, and it is low: Kelly is striking out just 5.93 batters per nine innings. Mapped to his roughly 5.9 innings per start, that projects to about 3.7 strikeouts per outing, nearly a full strikeout under the 4.5 line FanDuel posted.
The matchup does not fight the under. The Giants strike out at a 21.2 percent clip, right around league average and a touch below it, not the kind of high-whiff lineup that would inflate a contact pitcher's strikeout total. Kelly has always been a soft-contact, pitch-to-contact arm rather than a bat-misser, and that profile is exactly what suppresses a strikeout prop. The model makes the under 68.6 percent against a de-vigged market read closer to 46 percent. Getting the side the model loves at a plus-money +104 is why this is the 1.5-unit headline.
Warren Is The Over The Model Likes
Will Warren is the confirmed New York Yankees starter against the Royals at Kauffman Stadium, and he is the one true strikeout arm on the card. The right-hander has been excellent in 2026, posting a 3.61 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over ten starts with 62 strikeouts in 52.1 innings. That works out to a 10.66 strikeouts-per-nine rate, and against his roughly 5.2 innings per start it projects to about 6.1 strikeouts per outing, comfortably above the 5.5 line.
The opponent is a fair one rather than a perfect one. Kansas City strikes out at a 21.6 percent rate, essentially league average, so there is no major headwind or tailwind here. FanDuel juiced the under side of this prop, which left the over at a generous +124 even though the model makes it 56.3 percent, a fair price near -129. Getting plus money on the side a swing-and-miss arm projects to clear is the definition of value, which is why this is a one-unit over.
Bibee Is The Outs Play
Tanner Bibee is the confirmed Cleveland starter against Washington at Progressive Field, and his prop lives in the outs-recorded market rather than strikeouts. Bibee has a respectable 3.75 ERA across 11 starts, but the relevant number is length: he has thrown 60 innings in those 11 starts, an average of 5.45 innings, or about 16.4 outs per outing. The posted line is 17.5 outs, which requires him to complete at least the top of the sixth, something he has done inconsistently.
There is a context layer that reinforces the under. Bibee is a hard-luck 0-6 despite that solid ERA, the product of poor run support, and Cleveland has shown a willingness to go to its bullpen early in his starts as a result. The model makes the under 62.6 percent, a fair price near -168, yet FanDuel is offering plus money at +104. An inning-eater who is not quite eating innings, available at a plus number on the under, is a clean one-unit play.
The First-Inning Read: One NRFI Worth Buying
The first-inning market gets the same treatment as the pitcher props, and most of the no-run prices on the FanDuel board are juiced toward the no-run outcome, ranging from a pricey -158 in Brewers-Cardinals up to -370 in Diamondbacks-Giants. Paying those numbers gives back most of the edge before the inning even starts. The one exception is the Yankees-Royals opener, where the no-run first inning is hanging at plus money.
That game pairs Will Warren, with his 3.61 ERA, against Michael Wacha, who carries a 2.70 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP, two of the sharpest starting lines on the entire slate. Two quality arms facing each other is the textbook setup for a quiet first inning, and a transparent first-inning model that blends each starter's run-prevention with each lineup's first-inning scoring rate puts the no-run probability around 53 percent. FanDuel implies 49.5 percent at +102, so there is a modest but real edge, and unlike the juiced no-run prices elsewhere, this one pays plus money. It rounds out the card as a one-unit play.
| Game | FanDuel No-Run | Implied NRFI | Model NRFI | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees @ Royals | +102 | 49.5% | ~53% | Plus-money value, on the card |
| Brewers @ Cardinals | -158 | 61.2% | ~58% | Overpriced, pass |
| Diamondbacks @ Giants | -370 | 78.7% | ~60% | Badly overpriced, pass |
The Names The Model Faded
Jacob Misiorowski is the most electric strikeout arm on the slate, the Milwaukee starter against St. Louis with a stunning 13.89 strikeouts-per-nine rate and a 1.89 ERA. His over 8.5 strikeouts is tempting, but FanDuel set that line high enough to respect exactly how dominant he is. Against a contact-oriented Cardinals lineup that strikes out at just 20.9 percent, the model projects him around 8.3 strikeouts, which makes the over a coin flip at best and a slight negative once the price is paid. When the market prices an ace correctly, there is no value to manufacture.
Trey Yesavage is the same story from the other direction. The Toronto rookie has been brilliant at a 1.07 ERA with a 10.30 strikeouts-per-nine rate, but he averages only about five innings per start, which caps his strikeout ceiling. His over 5.5 at -124 projects right at the line, roughly a 50-50 proposition, so paying the juice turns it into a negative-EV bet. The card moves to the spots where the books left a gap rather than the marquee names where they did not.
Price Discipline
The card is only as good as the captured number, and the unusual feature today is that all four rows are at plus money, so the edge is especially sensitive to line movement. Each play is well inside the model's fair odds, but if any of these drift toward even money or worse, the value compresses quickly. Compare the live price against the model's fair odds before locking the bet, and pass if a line moves through the fair number on the wrong side.
| Play | Captured Price | Model Fair Odds | Practical Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly under 4.5 strikeouts | +104 FanDuel | -219 | Strongest row on the card; still strong down to roughly -150. |
| Bibee under 17.5 outs | +104 FanDuel | -168 | Solid through normal movement; recheck if it falls to -130 or worse. |
| Warren over 5.5 strikeouts | +124 FanDuel | -129 | Trim or pass if the over price drops below even money. |
| Yankees-Royals no run 1st | +102 FanDuel | -113 | Thinnest edge; pass if it goes negative. |
Verified Pitcher Board
| Metric | Merrill Kelly (ARI) | Will Warren (NYY) | Tanner Bibee (CLE) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchup | at Giants, Oracle Park | at Royals, Kauffman Stadium | vs Nationals, Progressive Field |
| 2026 starts | 7 | 10 | 11 |
| ERA | 5.71 | 3.61 | 3.75 |
| Strikeouts per 9 | 5.93 | 10.66 | 7.80 |
| Innings per start | 5.9 | 5.2 | 5.5 |
| Model projection | 3.7 K | 6.1 K | 16.4 outs |
| Opponent K rate | 21.2% | 21.6% | 21.6% |
| Posted line / price | Under 4.5 K at +104 FD | Over 5.5 K at +124 FD | Under 17.5 outs at +104 FD |
Stats are 2026 season figures pulled live from the MLB Stats API; opponent strikeout rates are 2026 team hitting rates. Lines and prices are from the FanDuel public board on the morning of May 25.
Source Log
Odds came from the FanDuel public sportsbook board, captured the morning of May 25. Probable starters were confirmed from the same board and cross-checked against MLB.com. Strikeout and outs projections used 2026 season pitching stats pulled live from the MLB Stats API and a Poisson model on strikeouts and outs per start, adjusted for each opponent's 2026 team strikeout rate. The first-inning read used team first-inning scoring tendencies and starter run prevention against the live FanDuel no-run prices.
- Live FanDuel pitcher prop and first-inning board:
sbapi.il.sportsbook.fanduel.com(13 games) - 2026 season pitching stats: MLB Stats API
- 2026 team strikeout rates: MLB Stats API team hitting
- Probable starters cross-check: MLB.com Probable Pitchers
- Ranked model output: Poisson strikeout and outs projections plus first-inning run model, scored against the live FanDuel board