This prop survives because the line did not move down. If the market had gone to 5.5, the board would look different. But at 6.5, the under still carries a real projection cushion and the sportsbook still pays like the outcome is a coin flip.
Statistical Snapshot
| Input | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Model mean | 5.17 Ks | Clear gap below the 6.5 line |
| Model under rate | 72.67% | Well above even-money break-even |
| Fair price | -266 | The model prices the under as a major favorite |
| Sample size | 34 starts | Solid recent starter history behind the projection |
The best way to think about this ticket is that the market hung a swing-and-miss line for a ceiling outcome and did not charge the bettor for fading it. That is exactly the combination a late-day under needs.
Gore can still pitch well and land under 6.5. That is what makes the under more attractive than the raw name value might suggest. The threshold asks for a relatively aggressive strikeout total, not a normal one.
Final Verdict
MacKenzie Gore under 6.5 strikeouts stays on the final late-slate board because the line is high, the model still lands in the fives, and FanDuel did not strip out the value with ugly juice. That is enough for a clean publish.