This is the cleanest kind of strikeout over: a high-rate arm, a full starter's workload, and an opponent that swings for damage. Gavin Williams has been Cleveland's best pitcher this season at 8-3 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, and the strikeouts are not a small-sample illusion. He has 88 of them in 76.1 innings, has reached double digits in a single game three times, and topped out at 11 in one start. Tonight he gets a Yankees lineup that has rung up 439 strikeouts, the 8th-highest total in baseball, in the Bronx at 7:05 PM ET.
The Three Pillars Of The Over
Every strikeout over we publish rests on three legs: the projection has to clear the line, the workload has to be there, and the opponent has to cooperate. All three are present tonight.
- Projection above the line. The model lands at 8.26 strikeouts, 1.76 punchouts above the 6.5 number.
- Workload is secure. Williams is a fixed rotation piece who has logged 76.1 innings; this is not a leash situation, and a pitching duel with Gerrit Cole on the other side argues for a long outing.
- The opponent whiffs. New York's 439 team strikeouts rank 8th-most in MLB. Power lineups trade contact for slug, and that trade feeds this prop.
Rate Times Innings Is The Whole Bet
Williams' season rate is 88 strikeouts over 76.1 innings, about 1.15 per inning. At that pace, he clears 6.5 strikeouts in roughly five and two-thirds innings of work. In other words, the over does not need a special night; it needs a normal one. The chart below shows where his projected strikeout count lands by workload at his season rate. Every outcome from six innings up clears the line, and the model's matchup adjustment for the Yankees' swing-heavy approach pushes the central projection to 8.26.
Verified Statistical Snapshot
| Sample | W-L | IP | SO | ERA | WHIP | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Williams 2026 season | 8-3 | 76.1 | 88 | 3.07 | 1.09 | Three games of 10+ strikeouts, season high 11 |
| Yankees batters 2026 | 439 team strikeouts, 8th-most in MLB; a power-first lineup that trades contact for slug. | |||||
| Tonight's game | Guardians at Yankees, 7:05 PM ET, Yankee Stadium; Gerrit Cole opposes, which projects a tight game and a full Williams workload. | |||||
The market line of 6.5 prices Williams as if a six-strikeout night is his midpoint. His season says otherwise. He has whiffed 88 hitters in 76.1 innings while keeping a 1.09 WHIP, which means he gets deep into starts because nobody is on base. Low traffic means more innings, more innings mean more strikeout chances, and the strikeout chances tonight come against the 8th-whiffiest lineup in the sport. The model's central projection of 8.26 reflects exactly that stack of advantages.
The Probability Distribution
A strikeout prop is a distribution, not a single number. The model spreads Williams' likely outcomes across a Poisson-style curve centered near 8.26. The bars below show the estimated chance of each strikeout total. Everything at 7 or more cashes the over; 6 or fewer loses. Nearly three-quarters of the probability mass sits in the winning region.
The Matchup Context
The Yankees are dangerous, and that is part of why this prop is attractive rather than scary. New York hunts pitches to drive, and lineups that hunt damage accept strikeouts as the cost of doing business; 439 of them so far, more than all but seven teams. Williams' fastball rides at the top of the zone, exactly where big swings come up empty, and his breaking ball has produced three double-digit strikeout games already this season.
The pitching matchup helps too. With Gerrit Cole starting for New York, this game projects tight and low-scoring, the script where a manager rides his ace deep instead of going to the bullpen early in a blowout. Cleveland's path to winning this game is Williams dominating, and dominating, for him, means strikeouts.
How To Bet It
- Target price: -122 or better. The model shows value on this line up to roughly -150 before the edge thins out.
- Stake: one unit, our standard for tracked model candidates.
- Watch the lineup card: the over is built partly on New York's whiff-heavy bats; a rest day for multiple regulars would soften the matchup adjustment.
- Live angle: if Williams has 4 strikeouts through three innings, his pace is comfortably over and the live number will have moved; the value is pregame.
The Risk
Final Verdict
Gavin Williams over 6.5 strikeouts at -122 is a tracked play for June 3. The line is real, the season rate clears it in under six innings, the opponent strikes out more than all but seven teams in baseball, and the model grades the over at 72 percent against a 55 percent break-even. This is the largest edge on today's strikeout board.
FAQ
The tracked play is Gavin Williams over 6.5 strikeouts at -122 on FanDuel for the Guardians at Yankees game at Yankee Stadium, first pitch 7:05 PM ET.
Williams has 88 strikeouts in 76.1 innings with three 10-plus strikeout games, and the Yankees have struck out 439 times, the 8th-most in MLB. The model projects 8.26 strikeouts and grades the over near 72 percent.
A price of -122 implies a break-even win rate of about 55 percent. The model's 72 percent over estimate sits well above that, which is the edge behind the play.