Best MLB Props Today May 31, 2026: Imai, Kelly, Bradish, Ashcraft Model Card
The May 31 board offered a full 15-game Sunday slate, and the analyzer pulled every confirmed pitcher strikeout and outs market off the FanDuel public board, projected each starter with a Poisson model anchored to verified 2026 season rates, and ranked the board by expected value. What survived as the official card: Tatsuya Imai under 14.5 outs at +116, Merrill Kelly under 4.5 strikeouts at +128, Kyle Bradish under 17.5 outs at +116, and Braxton Ashcraft over 5.5 strikeouts at +136, all priced at FanDuel.
Fast Card
Verdict: Tatsuya Imai under 14.5 outs is the headline because the model makes the under better than 80 percent on a starter carrying a 6.17 ERA who has not been reaching the fifth inning, and FanDuel is paying plus money on it. Merrill Kelly under 4.5 strikeouts is the same structure on a low-strikeout veteran, again at plus money. Kyle Bradish under 17.5 outs is a clean outs-under on a mid-rotation arm, and Braxton Ashcraft over 5.5 strikeouts is the one over on the card, a swing-and-miss arm the model likes through the line at plus money.
The morning snapshot covered all 15 MLB games and 29 confirmed pitcher strikeout markets plus 17 pitcher outs markets from the FanDuel public board. Each starter was projected with a Poisson model using 2026 strikeouts and innings per start, then filtered to a minimum four-start sample and ranked by expected value against the live FanDuel price.
The Board, Ranked
Sunday's theme is the outs under on short-leash starters, paired with a low-strikeout veteran under and one swing-and-miss strikeout over to balance the card. Each row cleared the model's expected-value threshold against the live FanDuel number.
| Rank | Play | Game | Model Prob | Fair Odds | Live Price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatsuya Imai under 14.5 outs | Brewers @ Astros | 80.1% | -403 | +116 FanDuel | +73.1% |
| 2 | Merrill Kelly under 4.5 strikeouts | Diamondbacks @ Mariners | 65.3% | -188 | +128 FanDuel | +48.9% |
| 3 | Kyle Bradish under 17.5 outs | Blue Jays @ Orioles | 66.8% | -201 | +116 FanDuel | +44.2% |
| 4 | Braxton Ashcraft over 5.5 strikeouts | Twins @ Pirates | 61.1% | -157 | +136 FanDuel | +44.2% |
Card order weights the two highest-edge plus-money rows at two units each (Imai and Kelly), with Bradish's outs under and Ashcraft's strikeout over at one unit apiece. Imai grades as both the most probable and the highest-EV row, so it takes the headline label at a plus-money price the model already prefers.
Why Imai Under Leads
Tatsuya Imai is the cleanest model-versus-market read on the board. The Houston right-hander draws the start against Milwaukee, and across six outings this season he carries a 6.17 ERA with a strikeout rate around 22.3 percent, the profile of a starter the Astros are still trying to stretch out and stabilize. The model projects him to record roughly 11.7 outs, nearly a full inning below the 14.5 line FanDuel posted, and the under is available at plus money.
The under does not need a disaster to cash, just a normal Imai start that ends before he completes the fifth inning, which has been the pattern. A 6.17 ERA paired with a sub-four-inning average per start is the textbook outs-under candidate, and facing a dangerous Brewers lineup only raises the odds he gets pulled early if traffic mounts. The model makes the under better than 80 percent against a market implied read near 46.3 percent at +116. A plus-money outs under on a pitcher whose projected workload sits a full inning below the posted line is exactly the structure the analyzer is built to find, which is why it is the two-unit headline.
Kelly Under 4.5 Strikeouts Is The Same Idea At Plus Money
Merrill Kelly draws the Seattle start for Arizona, and the strikeout under is the cleaner way to bet his profile than outs. Kelly is a contact-oriented veteran carrying a 5.25 ERA across eight starts with a strikeout rate of just 15.0 percent, one of the lowest marks of any starter on the slate. That is a pitcher who pitches to soft contact rather than swings and misses, and a 4.5 strikeout line is set above what his rate projects. The model puts his expected strikeout count at roughly 3.9, short of the number.
At +128 this is a plus-money price on the side the model already prefers, with a fair number all the way down at -188 and a model probability of 65.3 percent. A low-strikeout starter facing a Mariners lineup in a pitcher-friendly park is the ideal under candidate, and the captured price leaves a wide expected-value gap. It grades as the two-unit secondary on the card.
Bradish Under 17.5 Outs Rounds Out The Outs Board
Kyle Bradish is the confirmed Baltimore starter against Toronto, and his outs under grades as a clean plus-money row. Bradish carries a 3.86 ERA across eleven starts with a strikeout rate around 24 percent, a solid mid-rotation profile, but the model projects him to record roughly 15.9 outs, below the 17.5 line that would require him to work into the sixth inning.
At +116 this is a plus-money price on a model favorite, with a fair number at -201 and a model probability of 66.8 percent. A divisional start against a Toronto lineup that works counts and forces pitch counts up is the kind of spot where a starter gets lifted right around the fifth or early sixth, and the captured price leaves a comfortable expected-value gap. It grades as a one-unit play.
Ashcraft Over 5.5 Strikeouts Is The One Over
Braxton Ashcraft is the confirmed Pittsburgh starter against Minnesota, and his swing-and-miss profile is being underpriced on the over. Ashcraft runs a strikeout rate around 25.5 percent across eleven starts with a sparkling 2.75 ERA, which projects to roughly 6.36 strikeouts per outing against a 5.5 line. The over is paying +136, so FanDuel is offering a plus-money number on a side the model makes a 61.1 percent favorite with a fair price of -157.
This is the one over on the card precisely because it pairs a strong strikeout rate and a low ERA with a line set below the pitcher's projected mean, all at a plus-money price. A Twins lineup that will chase gives Ashcraft a real path to clearing six punchouts. It is a one-unit play at a price that leaves a clean edge.
The NRFI Board And The Names The Model Faded
The NRFI board offered no edge again on Sunday. The model ran every first-inning no-run price against each starting matchup and found the no-run side overpriced across the entire slate, with the closest games (Twins at Pirates at -154 and Blue Jays at Orioles at -130) still grading negative. When the first-inning market is shaded this heavily toward no-run, the disciplined move is to pass rather than pay the premium, and there was no YRFI price wide enough to flip into clear value either.
On the outs side, the analyzer also faded a pair of eye-popping numbers that did not survive a sanity check. Two outs overs printed implied edges north of 70 percent, but both were driven by inflated innings-per-start inputs rather than realistic workload projections, so they were excluded from the card rather than chased. The four rows that made the card are the only spots where the captured FanDuel price diverged far enough from a defensible model fair number to clear the expected-value threshold.
Price Discipline
The card is only as good as the captured number. Plus-money prices give room for movement, but the edge erodes quickly if any of these rows drift through the wrong side. The cleanest way to use the board is to compare the live price against the model's fair odds before locking the bet.
| Play | Captured Price | Model Fair Odds | Practical Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imai under 14.5 outs | +116 FanDuel | -403 | Best value on the card; still strong well into negative territory before the edge thins. |
| Kelly under 4.5 strikeouts | +128 FanDuel | -188 | Plus-money on a model favorite; playable down to about -120. |
| Bradish under 17.5 outs | +116 FanDuel | -201 | Strong plus-money outs under; playable down to roughly -120. |
| Ashcraft over 5.5 strikeouts | +136 FanDuel | -157 | Solid up to roughly -120 before the value disappears. |
Source Log
Odds came from the FanDuel public sportsbook board, captured the morning of May 31. Probable starters were confirmed from the same board and cross-checked against MLB.com. Projections used 2026 season pitching stats pulled live from the MLB Stats API and a Poisson model on strikeouts and innings per start.
- Live FanDuel pitcher prop board:
sbapi.il.sportsbook.fanduel.com(pitcher-props tab, 15 games) - 2026 season pitching stats: MLB Stats API
- Probable starters cross-check: MLB.com Probable Pitchers
- Ranked model output:
C:\\Users\\Nima\\Desktop\\MLB_Props\\2026-05-31\\