Rasmussen is a pitch-to-contact efficiency starter, and the books are charging almost nothing for the under. At -104 the break-even is 51 percent and the model grades the under at 60 percent. This is a price play: his strikeout count has bounced around the line all year, and near even money pays you to take the side his profile and workload favor.
The Recent Sample Against This Line
Drew Rasmussen's last six strikeout counts read 6, 5, 6, 2, 6, 4. Against tonight's line of 4.5, the under cashed in 2 of those six starts. The chart shows each outing against the number.
Verified Statistical Snapshot
| Sample | GS | IP | SO | ERA | WHIP | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen 2026 season | 11 | 59.0 | 55 | 3.36 | 1.02 | 8.39 K/9, right-handed |
| Last 6 starts | 6 | 6, 5, 6, 2, 6, 4 Ks | Under 4.5 cashed in 2 of 6 | See chart above | ||
| Marlins offense | 516 strikeouts in 63 games (8.19/game), .244 team average. | |||||
The Matchup Context
loanDepot park is strikeout-neutral and the Marlins whiff 8.19 times per game, slightly above average, which is what keeps this line at 4.5 with balanced juice instead of shaded. The model's case is Rasmussen himself: 5.4 innings per start and an attack-the-zone approach that converts outs on early contact. Efficiency starters bleed strikeout chances by design, and the bias-adjusted projection lands his most likely outcomes at exactly 4, one short of the over.
The Probability Distribution
The model spreads Drew Rasmussen's outcomes across a Poisson-style curve calibrated to its 60 percent under probability (distribution parameter 4.13). Green bars cash the ticket; orange bars lose.
How To Bet It
- Target price: -104 or better. Recheck the number before first pitch; prop lines move on lineup posts.
- Stake: two units, per the model's standard sizing for qualified edges.
- Confirm the start: Drew Rasmussen was the listed probable on the June 5 grid at publication.
The Risk
Final Verdict
Drew Rasmussen under 4.5 strikeouts at -104 is a 2-unit tracked play for June 5. The model projects 4.50 strikeouts and grades the under at 60 percent against a 51.0 percent break-even at loanDepot park, first pitch 7:10 PM ET.
FAQ
The tracked play is Drew Rasmussen under 4.5 strikeouts at -104 on FanDuel for the Rays @ Marlins game at loanDepot park, first pitch 7:10 PM ET.
The model projects 4.50 strikeouts against the 4.5 line and grades the under at 60 percent, roughly 9.0 points above the 51.0 percent break-even at the verified price.
A price of -104 implies a break-even win rate of about 51.0 percent.