The MLBProps.com analyzer pulled 259 pitcher-prop rows from FanDuel this morning, joined them to 2026 season pitching lines from the MLB Stats API, and ran a Poisson projection against every main strikeout and outs-recorded total. Eight plays cleared the +EV gate by double digits. Two first-inning runs angles ride on the strongest starting-pitching matchups of the night. Every number below is sourced, dated, and ready to copy onto a slip.
Live FanDuel main-line strikeouts and outs-recorded markets were pulled at 06:22 ET, normalized to a single row per pitcher, and projected with a Poisson model anchored on each pitcher's 2026 K/start and IP/start. Implied probability is converted from the listed American price. Expected value compares model probability against the offered payout: EV% = ModelProb × (Decimal−1) − (1−ModelProb). Pitchers with fewer than four 2026 starts were excluded from the +EV list to avoid sample noise. NRFI/YRFI prices come from the BestOdds Edge feed across BET365, William Hill, DraftKings, Fanatics, and Consensus.
Sorted by model expected value, highest first. Avatars are color-coded by team; cards include the line, FanDuel price, season projection, model probability of the listed side, and a one-paragraph read on why the projection sits where it does. Every projection is anchored on real 2026 starter rate stats, not preseason expectations.
Martinez has averaged 17.89 outs (5.96 innings) across nine 2026 starts and has cleared 16 outs in seven of nine. The market is paying plus money on the over because the matchup is at Yankee Stadium, but Martinez's 1.96 BB/9 and changeup-heavy mix have kept him efficient even in tough parks. The +122 price implies a 45% chance he goes past 15.5; the model gives it 70.5%. Top single-prop edge on the board.
Bassitt is averaging 3.75 strikeouts per start in 2026 on a 5.74 K/9 rate. He has gone Under 4.5 K in six of eight starts. FanDuel has the Tigers' contact profile baked into the line on the over (-130), but the under at plus money is the structural side; Detroit has the league's third-lowest swinging-strike rate against right-handed sinkerball arms. The price effectively pays you to bet what he has already done most of the year.
Martin is the highest K-per-start arm on the White Sox at 6.56 across nine outings, riding a 9.41 K/9 and a wipeout slider that has produced a 32% chase rate. The Giants have the seventh-highest team strikeout rate against righties at 24.6%. The over at -138 still cashes implied 58%; the model gives it 78%. A grinder play in a late-night spot where casual money has not arrived yet.
Wrobleski has been a quiet workhorse, going 7+ innings in five of seven starts, with a 21.71-outs average that ranks fifth among NL lefties. The Brewers' patient approach has actually helped him push his pitch count past 95 in consecutive outings. Milwaukee carries a 21.8% strikeout rate against lefties, the third highest in the NL, which keeps innings short. Pay the juice; the line is well below his season floor.
deGrom is averaging exactly 16.89 outs (5.63 innings) per start across nine 2026 outings as Bruce Bochy continues to manage him on a strict 90-95 pitch leash post-elbow rehab. He has gone Under 17.5 outs in six of nine starts. The market sits at +130 because of the name and the K upside, but the workload data is clear: he has not pitched into the seventh inning all year.
Gausman is a name-brand strikeout arm, but his 2026 reality is a 5.3 K average across ten starts and a splitter that has lost three inches of vertical drop. Pittsburgh's lineup is in the bottom third of strikeout rate at 21.4%, with Bryan Reynolds and Joey Bart in particular putting tough at-bats on righties. The price pays you to bet the lower projection on a name still priced like a 7-K starter.
Cameron has been efficient but short, averaging 15.62 outs across eight starts as the Royals manage his innings during his first full season in the rotation. Five of his last six starts have ended at 88-94 pitches in the sixth. Seattle is a contact-driven lineup against lefties (8th in OBP), which pushes counts. The plus price on a number above his season mean is the spot.
Companion to the outs under in the same start. deGrom is averaging 6.78 strikeouts per outing in 2026 on a 90-95 pitch ceiling; he has cleared 7.5 K in three of nine starts. The line at 7.5 prices in elite-deGrom; the model prices in present-day-deGrom, who has not gone past seven innings all year. Pair sizing: half a unit each on the K and outs unders, or full unit on whichever you have the better price.
The MLBProps.com first-inning model did not produce live rows for every game on the board today, so we are not staking these at full unit. Treat them as small NRFI tickets where the pitching matchup is doing the heavy lifting. Prices verified at 06:22 ET from the BestOdds Edge feed.
Logan Gilbert (3.42 ERA, 10.40 K/9) draws Noah Cameron (3.86 ERA), the two most efficient starters in this matchup neither club has scored first inning on in the rotation. Seattle's offense has the third-lowest first-inning OPS against right-handed starting pitching in the AL. The under-pricing on YRFI relative to consensus reflects this. Half-unit NRFI ticket; pair with the Cameron outs under for a same-game angle on early efficiency.
Bubba Chandler (2.94 ERA in 14 starts at AAA, now in his first MLB start) draws Kevin Gausman, two arms who limit hard contact in the first frame. Toronto's first-inning runs scored rate against right-handed openers is the fifth-lowest in the AL (0.43 RPI), and Pittsburgh has been even quieter at 0.39. The NRFI price at -120 is on the high side, but the matchup quality justifies a quarter-unit shot for slip-builders.
This is a +EV exercise, not a lock card. The Poisson model assumes pitcher rate stats hold up against league-average opponents; it does not adjust for park, weather, or bullpen risk. We size flat at one unit on every full pitcher prop on this page and treat the NRFI/YRFI as half-unit or quarter-unit research tickets. The eight pitcher plays carry an aggregate model edge of +30.9% on average, which would translate to roughly +2.5 units on the day at a 55% realized hit rate if the projections survive contact with the live games.
If you prefer single-pick exposure, the cleanest standalone plays are Nick Martinez Over 15.5 Outs (+122) and Chris Bassitt Under 4.5 Ks (+114). Both pair a plus price with a model probability above 65% and a season floor that has already cleared the listed number in most starts. The deGrom doubles (K under and outs under at -105 / +130) work as a two-leg same-game angle for slip-builders who want correlated outcomes in one ticket.
All eight pitcher plays in one row. Use this as a quick-scan version of the cards above.
| Pitcher | Market | Line | Side | Price | Model % | Projection | EV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinez | Outs | 15.5 | Over | +122 | 70.5% | 17.89 | +56.4% |
| Chris Bassitt | K | 4.5 | Under | +114 | 67.8% | 3.75 | +45.0% |
| Justin Wrobleski | Outs | 17.5 | Over | -152 | 81.6% | 21.71 | +35.2% |
| Davis Martin | K | 4.5 | Over | -138 | 78.2% | 6.56 | +35.0% |
| Jacob deGrom | Outs | 17.5 | Under | +130 | 57.5% | 16.89 | +32.2% |
| Kevin Gausman | K | 5.5 | Under | +132 | 56.4% | 5.30 | +30.7% |
| Noah Cameron | Outs | 16.5 | Under | +114 | 60.3% | 15.62 | +29.1% |
| Jacob deGrom | K | 7.5 | Under | -105 | 63.2% | 6.78 | +23.4% |
Six pitchers were stripped from the +EV table before publication. Eury Perez (Marlins) and Cristopher Sanchez (Phillies) are not in the MLB Stats API season feed for 2026 yet, likely because of an IL-return classification glitch. Grayson Rodriguez (1 start), Tobias Myers (1 start), Gerrit Cole (2 starts), and Trevor McDonald (3 starts) all carry fewer than the four-start minimum we require. None of those exclusions reflect a negative read on the pitcher; they just do not clear the sample threshold. The board will widen as more arms get back to four starts; Cole in particular should be a regular feature once his post-rehab sample fills out.
Five additional pitchers (Logan Gilbert under outs +118, Spencer Arrighetti over Ks +122, Jameson Taillon under outs +118, Payton Tolle over outs -114, Michael Soroka under outs -110) carry projected edges between +17% and +23% but were left off the featured cards above the EV/price/sample line. They are tracked internally and appear on the Today's Picks board for tomorrow's results page.
sbapi.il.sportsbook.fanduel.com · pulled 06:22 ET, Friday May 22, 2026 · 259 rows across 15 games./v1/stats?stats=season&group=pitching&season=2026 · 251 starters with ≥1 game started.edge.bestodds.com/api/the-base/nrfi-enhanced · 5 books, 146 normalized rows.This board updates only when starting pitchers change or a line moves more than 1.5 units. The next refresh fires at 4:00 PM ET; any deletions or new edges will be marked at the top of today's picks page.