Eight Innings. One Hundred Pitches. Two Strikeouts.
That was Logan Webb six days ago against Detroit, and it was not an off night. It was the job. Webb has thrown more innings than any starter on this board and has 103 strikeouts to show for 133 of them. FanDuel set his line at 5.5 today against Colorado and priced the under at -128. Thirteen of his 21 starts have landed there. The analyzer that built this board graded nine contracts playable, and this is the one that survived contact with the game logs.
Graded, August 15 final: The read missed. Logan Webb struck out 7 over 6.0 innings in the Giants' 7-1 win over Colorado, two clear of the 5.5 line, so the under at -128 lost for a notional -1.28 units. Analysis only, no tracked stakes. Board record for the day: 0-1. Result confirmed against the official box score.
Graded, August 15 final: The read missed, and it missed on the exact counterpoint this page published. Logan Webb struck out 7 over 6.0 innings on 80 pitches, four hits, no walks and one earned run against 22 batters, in the Giants' 7-1 win over Colorado at Oracle Park. Seven is two clear of 5.5, so the under at -128 lost. The write-up flagged Colorado's 22.6 percent strikeout rate and the 8 strikeouts Webb had put on Texas twelve days earlier as the live risk to a 13-of-21 under record, and both showed up in the same start. Board record 0-1. As with every board since July 8, this read was published as analysis only with no tracked units, so the card is not folded into the season totals on the results ledger. Confirmed from the official MLB box score for August 15, 2026.
Sunday In San Francisco, And Nobody Swung Through Anything
August 9, Oracle Park, Giants against Tigers. Webb went eight full innings. He threw 100 pitches, faced 28 hitters, allowed one earned run, and struck out two of them. Detroit put the ball in play against him 26 times and mostly hit it into the dirt.
Nothing about that afternoon was unusual for him. On July 8 he worked seven innings against Toronto on 106 pitches and struck out two. Between those two outings he made four more starts and collected 5, 4, 4 and 8 strikeouts. The eight came at Texas on August 3 and stands as his season high.
Set the line at 5.5 and run all 21 starts. Thirteen finished at five strikeouts or fewer. That is 61.9 percent against a FanDuel under priced at -128, which needs 56.1 percent to break even. A 5.8 point cushion is not enormous, and this page has cut contracts for less, but it is built on a full season rather than a three-start sample, and it holds up when you slice it.
A Sinker, A Changeup, And Almost No Swing And Miss
Webb has thrown 1,985 pitches this season. The sinker is the foundation at 29.7 percent usage and 92.1 miles per hour, the changeup sits right behind it at 24.9 percent and 85.9, the sweeper accounts for 19.4 percent at 84.1, the cutter 13.3 percent at 89.7, and the four-seamer is the pitch he uses least at 12.7 percent. Five pitches, none of them a bat-misser by design, all of them aimed at the top half of the baseball.
The result shows up in his ground-to-air ratio, 1.49, and in a strikeout rate of 19.1 percent across 538 batters faced. His 1.08 walks and hits per inning and his 3.59 earned run average say he is pitching well. His 6.97 strikeouts per nine says the outs are coming from the infield.
The interesting part is that his workload does not rescue the over. Webb averages 6.33 innings and 25.6 batters faced per start, more of both than anyone else on this board. In his ten starts of seven innings or longer he cleared 5.5 strikeouts four times. In his six starts of 100 pitches or more he struck out 26 hitters total, an average of 4.33, and cleared the line once. More innings have not turned into more strikeouts, because the pitch mix does not allow it.
Slice It Any Way You Like And The Under Holds
Season rates can hide a trend, so here is the same number cut four different ways. At Oracle Park he has made 11 starts and landed under 5.5 in 7 of them, 63.6 percent, slightly better than his overall mark. Today is a home start. In the ten outings where he pitched into the seventh inning or beyond, six finished under. In the six where he threw 100 pitches or more, five finished under. And in his two starts against Colorado this season, both on the road, he struck out 5 across 4.1 innings on May 29 and 2 across 3.0 innings on July 3. Seven strikeouts in 7.1 innings against the lineup he sees today.
The Case Against, Stated Plainly
Colorado is not a soft strikeout matchup. The Rockies whiff in 22.6 percent of their plate appearances, 1,049 across 4,638 trips, which ranks 11th of the 30 clubs and sits above the middle of the league. They also hit .255 as a team with a .744 on-base plus slugging, so this is a lineup that puts pressure on a pitcher and gets him into deep counts. Deep counts against a heavy-workload starter are how a 4-strikeout profile turns into a 6-strikeout afternoon.
Then there is August 3. Webb faced 24 Texas hitters, threw 96 pitches, allowed nothing, and struck out 8. That is the version of him that wrecks this ticket, and it happened twelve days ago. Anyone selling this under as a lock is ignoring the most recent evidence that the ceiling exists.
The last problem is the shape of the risk. This is not an under that wins because the pitcher leaves early. Webb has recorded 21 or more outs in 10 of his 21 starts, and his own outs contract today, under 20.5 at -144, grades negative precisely because he keeps going deep. The under on strikeouts has to win on rate alone, over roughly 25 batters faced, which is the hardest way for a strikeout under to win. At -128 there is no plus-money cushion to absorb a bad break.
Eight Contracts Went Into The Bin, And Four Of Them Were Graded Strong
The analyzer priced 52 contracts across the fifteen-game slate and graded nine playable, five of them strong. Run every one of those nine through the pitcher's own 2026 game log against the break-even the price demands, and eight fail.
Grant Holmes is the loudest miss. The board wants his under 3.5 strikeouts at plus 114, a price needing 46.7 percent. Holmes has landed under 3.5 in 6 of his 22 starts, 27.3 percent. He has 94 strikeouts in 114.0 innings and reached four or more in 16 of those 22 turns, including five in each of three of his last six. A 19.4 point hole is the widest disagreement on the board.
Troy Melton follows. The over 5.5 at plus 114 needs 46.7 percent and Melton has cleared six strikeouts in 4 of his 13 starts, 30.8 percent. His 69 strikeouts in 80.0 innings are excellent, his 1.46 earned run average is better, and his last four starts produced 5, 5, 4 and 5. Averaging 5.31 strikeouts per outing against a 5.5 line is a coin flip at best, and the price is not offering a coin flip.
Randy Dobnak triggers the workload filter. He has made 5 starts, thrown 36.0 innings, and struck out 19 hitters, a rate of 4.75 per nine and exactly 3.00 per start. The board projects him at better than 60 percent to clear 3.5. His five starts produced 3, 3, 4, 1 and 4, so the over has landed twice. A projection that far above a pitcher's actual output gets cut rather than hedged.
Jacob Misiorowski is the reverse error. The under 8.5 at -104 needs 51.0 percent, and Misiorowski has finished under 8.5 in 9 of his 22 starts, 40.9 percent, because he has 204 strikeouts in 133.0 innings behind a 1.76 earned run average and a 0.74 walks and hits per inning. He struck out 15 in a complete game and has three separate double-digit starts since July. Fading him at a price with no cushion is the wrong direction.
Ian Seymour is the closest call and the one worth explaining, because on the surface he passes. He has landed under 6.5 in 5 of his 9 starts, 55.6 percent, against a price needing 53.5. The problem is that his role changed. Seymour has appeared in 38 games and started 9 of them, and his early starts were short piggyback outings of 8 and 13 batters faced. His last two starts were 25 batters apiece, and they produced 9 strikeouts on August 3 and 7 on August 9. His strikeout rate in starts is 31.8 percent, which over 25 batters projects roughly 8. The historical rate is stale, so this is a pass rather than a play.
Three more go quietly. Michael McGreevy over 3.5 at plus 102 needs 49.5 percent and he has cleared it in 11 of 23 starts, 47.8. Jared Jones over 4.5 at -136 needs 57.6 percent and he has cleared it in 6 of 13, 46.2, while averaging 4.54 innings and 19.2 batters faced per start. Connor Prielipp over 5.5 at plus 112 is the only survivor besides Webb, clearing in 8 of 16 starts against a 47.2 percent break-even, and 50.0 against 47.2 on a 16-start sample is too thin to publish as a read.
The Nine Playable Contracts, And What Happened To Them
| Contract | Line | FanDuel price | Verdict on the game log | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Webb K, Rockies at Giants | Under 5.5 | +100 / -128 | 13 of 21 starts land under, 7 of 11 at home; price needs 56.1 percent | HEADLINE |
| Connor Prielipp K, Phillies at Twins | Over 5.5 | +112 / -142 | 8 of 16 clear it against a 47.2 percent break-even; 16-start sample | TOO THIN |
| Ian Seymour K, Orioles at Rays | Under 6.5 | -111 / -115 | 5 of 9 land under, but his last two starts ran 25 batters for 9 K and 7 K | ROLE CHANGED |
| Michael McGreevy K, Cardinals at Cubs | Over 3.5 | +102 / -130 | 11 of 23 clear it, 47.8 percent against a 49.5 percent break-even | CUT |
| Jared Jones K, Red Sox at Pirates | Over 4.5 | -136 / +106 | 6 of 13 clear it, 46.2 percent against a 57.6 percent break-even | CUT |
| Jacob Misiorowski K, Brewers at Dodgers | Under 8.5 | -122 / -104 | Under lands in 9 of 22; he has 204 strikeouts in 133.0 innings | CUT |
| Troy Melton K, White Sox at Tigers | Over 5.5 | +114 / -146 | 4 of 13 clear it, 30.8 percent; averages 5.31 strikeouts per start | CUT |
| Randy Dobnak K, Royals at Angels | Over 3.5 | +132 / -170 | 19 strikeouts in 36.0 innings, 3.00 per start, over has landed twice in five | WORKLOAD CUT |
| Grant Holmes K, Diamondbacks at Braves | Under 3.5 | -146 / +114 | Under lands in 6 of 22, 27.3 percent against a 46.7 percent break-even | CUT |
Confidence, Ranked Honestly
How to read this page. Webb is the only published read. Eight of the nine contracts the analyzer flagged were cut or passed, six because the pitcher's own 2026 record does not clear the price he is being sold at, one because five starts is not enough workload to support the projection attached to it, and one because a season rate was built on a role the pitcher no longer occupies. Everything here is independent analysis written for MLBProps.com readers, verified against official 2026 MLB game logs pulled today and priced off the live FanDuel strikeout and outs board. Nothing on this page carries tracked units and nothing is graded against any pick record.
The Pitcher Outs Board Produced Nothing
Twenty-five pitcher outs contracts were priced and every one graded negative after the market blend. The least bad of them belongs to the same pitcher this page is featuring: Logan Webb under 20.5 outs at -144. That price needs 59.0 percent and Webb has recorded 20 outs or fewer in 11 of his 21 starts, 52.4 percent. Short by 6.6 points.
The rest are worse. Troy Melton over 17.5 outs at -130 asks for six full innings from a pitcher who has thrown exactly six or more in 8 of 13 starts. Grant Holmes over 14.5 at -205 pays 49 cents on the dollar for a pitcher who averages 5.00 innings. Jesus Luzardo over 17.5 at -200 and Cam Schlittler over 17.5 at -200 carry the same problem, a heavy favorite price on a five-and-a-half-inning league. Outs markets are the easiest place on a props board to talk yourself into a bad number, and the honest answer today is that none of the 25 was worth a ticket.
The Transparency Section: No First-Inning Play Today
There is no NRFI or YRFI read today, and the reason is the same one this page reported on August 11. All 52 contracts the analyzer evaluated across the fifteen-game slate were pitcher strikeout and pitcher outs markets. No first-inning contract was priced at all, so there is nothing to grade against a model number, nothing to compare against the vig, and nothing to report.
Oracle Park would be the obvious place to look for one. This page published a Giants NRFI on August 9 built on that ballpark and it won. That is exactly why it will not manufacture a second one today out of memory and a park factor. A first-inning play requires a first-inning price. Today there is none, so the section publishes as a pass and the page moves on.
Final Verdict
Logan Webb under 5.5 strikeouts at -128 is the headline read because his record against this exact number is the only thing on the board that clears its own price by a margin worth publishing. Thirteen of 21 starts have landed under, 7 of 11 at home, 5 of 6 when he throws 100 pitches or more, and both meetings with Colorado. He has 103 strikeouts in 133.0 innings and averages 4.90 per outing against a line of 5.5. The sinker and changeup account for more than half his pitches and neither is built to miss bats.
The risk is real and it is recent. Colorado whiffs at a 22.6 percent clip, 11th in the majors, and Webb struck out 8 Texas hitters twelve days ago on 96 pitches. He also goes deep enough that a hot afternoon has time to develop. At -128 there is no cushion for one of those.
Eight contracts the model liked did not make this page. Four of them carried its strongest grade, and one of those, Grant Holmes under 3.5, is a bet against a pitcher who has cleared four strikeouts in 16 of 22 starts. The outs board produced nothing and no first-inning market was priced. Back tomorrow with a fresh slate.
Frequently Asked Questions
Because it is the only contract on the board whose own 2026 record clears the price attached to it. Webb has finished under 5.5 strikeouts in 13 of his 21 starts, a 61.9 percent rate. FanDuel prices the under at -128, which needs 56.1 percent to break even. That is a 5.8 point cushion built on a full season of starts rather than a hot week. He has 103 strikeouts in 133.0 innings, a 6.97 rate per nine, and averages 4.90 strikeouts per start against a line set at 5.5.
Volume, and one recent start. Webb averages 6.33 innings and 25.6 batters faced per outing, so he gets more chances to reach six strikeouts than a five-inning starter does, and eight of his 21 starts have cleared the number. His August 3 start at Texas produced 8 strikeouts in 6.0 innings, his season high, so the version that beats this line exists. Colorado also strikes out in 22.6 percent of its plate appearances, the 11th highest rate of the 30 clubs, which is a mild headwind rather than the soft matchup an under would prefer.
Because Holmes has landed under 3.5 strikeouts in 6 of his 22 starts this season, a 27.3 percent rate, against a plus-114 price that needs 46.7 percent. That is a 19.4 point hole in the pitcher's own record, the widest disagreement between the model and the game log on the entire board. He has 94 strikeouts in 114.0 innings and cleared four strikeouts in 16 of 22 starts. The projection lost to the log.
No. All 25 pitcher outs contracts the analyzer priced graded as no bet, and the least negative of them was Logan Webb under 20.5 outs at -144. That price needs 59.0 percent and Webb has recorded 20 outs or fewer in 11 of his 21 starts, 52.4 percent, so the contract is short by 6.6 points. The outs board publishes as a pass.
Because no first-inning contract was priced on the board this morning. The analyzer evaluated 52 contracts across the fifteen-game slate and every one of them was a pitcher strikeout or a pitcher outs market. There is no first-inning number to compare against a model output, so there is nothing to report. This page will not reverse engineer a first-inning lean out of park factors after the fact.