What This Board Is
A strikeout prop has two numbers on it and most analysis only argues about one. The line is the first. The price is the second, and the price is what turns a hit rate into a verdict.
So the method here is deliberately crude and deliberately complete. For every pitcher scheduled to start on September 3 who has a posted strikeout number and at least five starts on the season, pull his 2026 game log, count what share of his own starts finished above tonight’s line, and put that share next to the break even percentage the posted price demands. If a pitcher has cleared 4.5 in 70 percent of his starts and the over is priced at minus 115, which needs 53.49 percent, the gap is 16.9 points.
Two names on tonight’s posted board are missing from the table. Kade Anderson has two major league starts and ten innings, and Quinn Mathews is short of the five start floor. Neither can be measured this way and neither has been guessed at.
No opponent adjustment is applied in the table. No park factor, no weather, no umpire, no bullpen usage. Those matter and they are handled in words further down, not in the arithmetic, because burying an adjustment inside a number is how a board stops being checkable.
The Full Posted Board
| Starter | Opponent | Opp K rate | GS | K per 9 | K per start | Posted over | Own hit rate | Break even | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha | Miami Marlins | 21.80% | 27 | 7.17 | 5.04 | o4.5 -115 | 70.4% | 53.49% | +16.9 |
| Sandy Alcantara | Kansas City Royals | 20.86% | 29 | 6.64 | 4.83 | o3.5 -125 | 72.4% | 55.56% | +16.9 |
| Cal Quantrill | Tampa Bay Rays | 18.48% | 11 | 7.67 | 4.36 | o3.5 +110 | 63.6% | 47.62% | +16.0 |
| Brandon Young | Boston Red Sox | 21.19% | 23 | 7.11 | 4.48 | o3.5 -150 | 73.9% | 60.00% | +13.9 |
| Logan Henderson | Chicago Cubs | 21.45% | 14 | 10.14 | 6.14 | o5.5 -115 | 64.3% | 53.49% | +10.8 |
| Jack Perkins | Seattle Mariners | 23.25% | 12 | 10.35 | 5.33 | o5.5 +105 | 41.7% | 48.78% | -7.1 |
| Kevin Gausman | Milwaukee Brewers | 21.42% | 28 | 9.04 | 5.57 | o5.5 -105 | 42.9% | 51.22% | -8.4 |
| Tarik Skubal | St. Louis Cardinals | 20.70% | 21 | 10.87 | 7.29 | o8.5 +135 | 33.3% | 42.55% | -9.2 |
| Shane McClanahan | Texas Rangers | 22.72% | 23 | 8.20 | 4.48 | o4.5 -145 | 43.5% | 59.18% | -15.7 |
| Jake Bennett | Baltimore Orioles | 24.31% | 16 | 7.11 | 4.62 | o4.5 -150 | 43.8% | 60.00% | -16.2 |
Five of the ten sit above the rate their own price requires and five sit below. The median gap is plus 1.85 points and no row on the board reaches 17 in either direction, which is a market sitting almost exactly on top of the season records. On a normal fifteen game board this desk usually finds at least one row past 30. Tonight there is nothing like it.
TOP EIGHT BY OWN HIT RATE ON TONIGHT’S NUMBER
The Top Of The Board Is Three Low Numbers
The three widest gaps tonight all sit on a line of 4.5 or lower, which is the opposite of what this board usually surfaces. Michael Wacha is posted over 4.5 at minus 115, a 53.49 percent break even, and he has cleared 4.5 in 19 of his 27 starts, 70.4 percent. He is not a strikeout pitcher: 7.17 per nine and 5.04 a start. The line is simply set below his own median and the price has not adjusted for it.
Sandy Alcantara is the same shape one notch lower. Over 3.5 at minus 125 needs 55.56 percent and he has cleared it in 21 of 29 starts, 72.4 percent, at 6.64 per nine. Kansas City strikes out at 20.86 percent, which is one of the softer marks on the board, and that is the argument against the number rather than for it.
Cal Quantrill is the only plus money row in the top three. Over 3.5 at plus 110 needs 47.62 percent and he has cleared it in 7 of 11 starts, 63.6 percent, at 7.67 per nine. Eleven starts is a thin sample and the opponent is the softest strikeout lineup on the whole board, Tampa Bay at 18.48 percent. Those two facts pull in the same direction, and it is not the direction the gap column points.
The Bottom Of The Board Is A Matchup Being Priced Twice
The widest negative gap belongs to Jake Bennett, whose over 4.5 at minus 150 has cleared in 7 of 16 starts, 43.8 percent, against a break even of 60.00. His rate is 7.11 per nine and he averages 4.62 a start, so the posted number sits right on his own average, and the price then demands sixty percent of it. The reason is in the column to the left: Baltimore strikes out at 24.31 percent, the highest rate on the board. The market has priced the matchup and the pitcher’s record has not moved with it.
Shane McClanahan is the same story with a better arm. Over 4.5 at minus 145 needs 59.18 percent, he has cleared it in 10 of 23 starts, 43.5 percent, and he strikes out 8.2 per nine against a Texas lineup at 22.72 percent. McClanahan carries a 3.19 ERA and a .206 opponent average, and none of that is a strikeout total. He averages 4.48 a start, which is under the posted line.
Tarik Skubal is the row that will surprise people. He has the highest strikeout rate on the board at 10.87 per nine and averages 7.29 a start, and his posted number is 8.5 at plus 135, the highest line here. He has cleared 8.5 in 7 of 21 starts, 33.3 percent, against a 42.55 break even. The market has pushed the line more than a strikeout above his own average, which is what happens to the best strikeout pitcher on any given board.
The Two Rows In The Middle
Logan Henderson at 5.5 minus 115 is the only row above 10 points of gap that belongs to a genuine strikeout arm. He is at 10.14 per nine over fourteen starts, averages 6.14 a start, and has cleared 5.5 in 9 of 14, 64.3 percent, against 53.49. The Cubs strike out at 21.45 percent, mid table.
Jack Perkins at 5.5 plus 105 is the counterexample that matters, because his rate is high and his record is not. 10.35 per nine, and yet only 5 of 12 starts have cleared 5.5, 41.7 percent, against a 48.78 break even. A high strikeout rate over short outings does not produce strikeout totals, and Perkins carries a 6.42 ERA that gets him out of games early. Seattle also strikes out at 23.25 percent, the second highest rate on the board, which is why the number is up at 5.5 in the first place.
Method, Line By Line
Own hit rate is the share of that pitcher’s 2026 games started in which his final strikeout total finished strictly above tonight’s posted line. Only games started are counted, so relief appearances are excluded, and a pitcher needs five of them to appear at all.
Break even is the American price converted to implied probability with no vig removal. Minus 150 becomes 150 divided by 250, which is 60.00 percent. Plus 135 becomes 100 divided by 235, which is 42.55 percent. Because the vig is left in, every break even in the table is slightly higher than a fair one, so the gap column is a conservative reading rather than a flattering one.
Opponent K rate is team strikeouts divided by team plate appearances for the 2026 season to date. Tonight’s board spans 18.48 percent at Tampa Bay to 24.31 percent at Baltimore, a 5.83 point spread.
The One Number To Keep
Across the ten measurable lines the median gap is plus 1.85 points and the extremes are plus 16.9 and minus 16.2. That is the tightest board this desk has printed, and it is a useful reminder of what a normal night looks like. The wide rows that make a board interesting are not always there. On the nights they are not, the honest output is a table that says so.
Board FAQ
Is anything on this page a pick?
No. There is no play, no unit and no recommendation anywhere on it. It is a board that prints every posted number next to the pitcher's own record and the price's break even, so a reader can see where those three things disagree.
Why is Michael Wacha the widest row on a 7.17 strikeout rate?
Because the line is 4.5 and he averages 5.04 a start. He has cleared 4.5 in 19 of 27 starts, 70.4 percent, and the price at minus 115 only demands 53.49. A low line on a low strikeout pitcher can still be an easy line.
Why is Tarik Skubal under his price with the best rate on the board?
Because the posted line is 8.5, more than a strikeout above his 7.29 average. He has cleared 8.5 in 7 of 21 starts. The market prices the best strikeout arm on any board by moving the number, not the price.
Why are only ten lines in the table when twelve were posted?
Kade Anderson has two major league starts and Quinn Mathews is short of the five start floor. Neither can be measured against his own record, so neither is in the table.
How many rows beat their own price?
Five of ten. The median gap across the board is plus 1.85 points and nothing reaches 17 in either direction.