Fifty Three Pitches In Anaheim. Nine Of Eleven In Arlington.

GRADED, August 22: Jacob deGrom over 5.5 strikeouts (-125) WON. He struck out 10 over 6.0 innings on 94 pitches, allowing one hit and one walk with no earned runs against 20 batters faced, in the Rangers' 2-0 win over Washington at Globe Life Field. Notional result +0.80u on a one-unit ticket. Both documented cuts were correct: Grayson Rodriguez finished with 6 strikeouts over 7.0 innings, losing the under 4.5, and Peter Lambert finished with 3 strikeouts over 3.2 innings, losing the over 5.5. On the outs board that published as a pass, Kyle Bradish recorded 17 outs and deGrom recorded 18, so both overs would have cashed, while Gerrit Cole recorded 18 outs and would have lost the under 17.5. Analysis only, no tracked units, no effect on the season record. Graded from the official MLB box scores for August 20, 2026.

One Contract Out Of Twelve

Twelve contracts were priced and evaluated for August 20 across the three games still open when the board ran: Angels at Astros, Yankees at Orioles, and Nationals at Rangers. Six strikeout markets, six pitcher outs markets, zero first-inning markets. Exactly one contract graded playable and it is the deGrom over. Everything else is documented below with the number that ended it, because a board with one read on it is a board with one read on it. There is no second lean here and manufacturing one would be the easiest way to make this page worse.

deGrom is the least mysterious pitcher on the slate. He has 147 strikeouts in 120.2 innings across 23 starts, a rate of 10.96 per nine that ranks eleventh among the 129 pitchers with at least fifteen starts in 2026. His earned run average is 3.95, his WHIP is 1.17, and he has walked 31 hitters all year against those 147 strikeouts. Nobody is talking a marginal arm into a number. The disagreement is about how long he stays out there.

The Stuff Did Not Leave. The Starts Got Short.

Across his last four starts deGrom threw 322 pitches and got 41 swinging strikes, 12.7 percent, which is the best whiff stretch of his season. He struck out 19 hitters in those four turns. He also averaged 3.7 innings in them. Both of those things are true and the second one is why this price sits at -125 rather than -175.

The mix is two pitches and two decorations. A four-seam fastball at 97.7 miles per hour made up 43.2 percent of everything he threw. A slider at 91.8 made up another 38.5 percent. The changeup, curveball and sinker combined for the remaining 18.3 percent and finished nothing. Thirteen of his nineteen strikeouts over that stretch ended on the slider and six ended on the four-seam. A hitter who sits slider is guessing against a 97.7 fastball, and a hitter who sits fastball gets a pitch that arrives almost six miles an hour slower out of the same slot.

Arlington Is A Different Pitcher

This is the through-line and it is not subtle. In 11 home starts deGrom has thrown 61.1 innings with 78 strikeouts, an 11.45 per nine rate, a 2.93 earned run average and a 0.98 WHIP. In 12 road starts he has thrown 59.1 innings with 69 strikeouts, a 10.47 rate, a 5.01 earned run average and a 1.37 WHIP. He has faced 243 hitters at home and struck out 32.1 percent of them. He has faced 255 on the road and struck out 27.1 percent.

Run the same split through the actual contract and it reads 9 of 11 at Globe Life Field, 81.8 percent, against 6 of 12 on the road, 50.0 percent. The gap is not only about missing bats. It is about surviving the fifth inning. His home earned run average is two full runs lower, which means fewer three-run innings, which means fewer conversations in the dugout about the bullpen phone.

The Case Against, Stated Loudly

Start with the batters faced, because that is the honest arithmetic. deGrom has struck out 29.5 percent of the 498 hitters he has faced this season. At that rate, six strikeouts needs roughly twenty hitters. Over his last five starts he has faced 23, 22, 22, 18 and 12, an average of 19.4. He is right on the line and slightly under it. The five-start strikeout totals read 6, 4, 3, 9 and 3, so he has cleared this number twice in five turns while the season log says 65.2 percent.

Then there is the opponent. Washington strikes out in 20.7 percent of its plate appearances against right-handed pitching, 710 times in 3436 trips, which is the sixth lowest rate in baseball against righties. Their season line against right-handers is .246 with a .753 OPS. This is not a lineup built to hand a strikeout pitcher easy outs, and anyone selling the matchup as an edge is selling something that is not there.

The counterweight is short-term and worth exactly what it is worth. Over their last twelve games the Nationals have struck out 107 times in 447 plate appearances, 23.9 percent, well above their own season mark. In the first two games of this series at Globe Life Field they went down on strikes nine times against Cal Quantrill and company on August 18 and five times against Kumar Rocker and company on August 19. Twelve games is twelve games. The season number is the truer one and the season number is unfriendly.

One more thing that cuts both ways. Texas used Cole Winn, Peyton Gray and Jordan Montgomery on August 19, and Robby Ahlstrom, Jakob Junis and Tyler Alexander the night before. Quantrill went seven innings on 91 pitches on August 18 and Rocker went five on 92 on August 19. That is a bullpen with everybody having thrown inside two days but nobody buried, so there is no forced reason to leave deGrom in and no forced reason to yank him either. The leash is a judgment call, which is the least comfortable input a strikeout contract can have.

That clustering matters. deGrom has finished with exactly six strikeouts four times and exactly five twice, so six of his 23 starts landed within one strikeout of this line in either direction. At -125 there is not much cushion for that cluster to break the wrong way. Take the position knowing 65.2 against 55.6 is a real edge and still a lean, not a lock.

Two Strikeout Cuts, And The Number That Killed Each

Grayson Rodriguez under 4.5 strikeouts at -104 was the second largest edge the board produced and it came back at plus 1.77 percentage points, which is short of the threshold this desk publishes on. His game log says the same thing louder. Rodriguez has stayed under 4.5 strikeouts in 6 of his 13 starts, 46.2 percent, against a price needing 51.0. His last five turns produced 3, 6, 6, 8 and 5 strikeouts, so the under has landed once in five. The tempting part of his profile is the shape: a 7.17 earned run average, a 1.59 WHIP, 28 walks in 59 innings and 18.78 pitches per inning, all of which point at short outings. The problem is that he keeps striking out five and six hitters anyway, and Houston whiffs in 21.8 percent of its plate appearances against right-handers, eighteenth of thirty. Cut.

Peter Lambert over 5.5 strikeouts at -111 is the more interesting cut because his raw history clears the price. Lambert has gone over 5.5 in 12 of his 21 starts, 57.1 percent, against a break-even of 52.6, and he draws an Angels lineup that strikes out in 25.1 percent of its plate appearances against right-handers, the second highest rate in baseball. So why is it gone? The de-vigged market number already had the over at 49.6 percent, the strikeout engine put it at 53.8, and the blend of the two landed at 51.7 against a price demanding 52.6. That is minus 0.94 percentage points. Lambert also averages 5.65 innings a start with 8.87 strikeouts per nine, which projects 5.6 strikeouts, right on the number. His last five read 3, 6, 8, 3 and 6. When the market and the model agree inside a point, there is no bet, and this one sits inside a point.

The Pitcher Outs Board Produced Nothing

All six pitcher outs contracts graded no bet. The closest was Kyle Bradish over 16.5 outs at -118, which came back at plus 0.56 percentage points. That price needs 54.1 percent and Bradish has recorded seventeen or more outs in 12 of his 24 starts, exactly 50.0 percent. His last five turns produced 20, 18, 14, 9 and 18 outs, including a three-inning start against Philadelphia on August 2 that ended on 53 pitches. He is starting opposite Gerrit Cole in a game Baltimore has to have after losing the first two of this series. Half a percentage point of edge is not a reason to act.

Jacob deGrom over 15.5 outs at +164 is the honest oddity of the board, and it graded minus 0.07. His season log clears it comfortably, 12 of 23 starts at 52.2 percent against a break-even of only 37.9. The engine is not blind to that; it put his chance at 52.5 percent. The outs engine is weighted heavily toward the market because starter length projections have historically run hot, and the de-vigged market number here is 35.2 percent. Blend those and you land at 37.8 against 37.9 needed, which is a rounding error away from playable and on the wrong side of it. His last five starts recorded 14, 15, 10, 15 and 6 outs. Zero of five. The market is not wrong to be scared.

Gerrit Cole under 17.5 outs at +128 rounded out the top three at minus 1.09. That contract needs 43.9 percent and Cole has finished with seventeen or fewer outs in 6 of 15 starts, 40.0 percent. He has not gone past 7.0 innings once in 86.2 innings this season, so the ceiling is capped, but he has also reached eighteen outs in nine of fifteen turns behind a 1.08 WHIP and a 1.97 walks per nine rate. Behind those three the board ran negative fast: Peter Lambert over 17.5 outs at minus 2.43, Grayson Rodriguez over 15.5 at minus 3.29, and Andrew Alvarez over 14.5 at minus 3.62. The section publishes as a documented pass.

The Transparency Section: No First-Inning Play Today

No first-inning market was priced anywhere in the line pull. Nineteen events were archived from it, the board evaluated six strikeout contracts and six pitcher outs contracts inside the three games still open, and zero YRFI or NRFI contracts were posted. With no live price to blend a projection against, there is nothing to grade, and this page will not build a first-inning lean out of park factors and an opening-frame split after the fact. Documented pass.

The Full Board, Ranked Honestly

Edge is the blended probability minus the break-even the FanDuel price demands, in percentage points. The de-vigged market numbers the engine was measured against were 52.4 percent on the deGrom strikeout over, 48.1 on the Rodriguez under, 49.6 on the Lambert over, 50.6 on the Bradish outs over, 35.2 on the deGrom outs over and 41.0 on the Cole outs under. All prices are FanDuel, captured in today's line pull. Nothing on this page carries a tracked unit.

The Last Board, For The Record

August 18 led with Braxton Ashcraft over 5.5 strikeouts at -122 and it lost, but not in the way the page feared. Ashcraft threw eight innings on 80 pitches, faced 28 hitters, allowed one earned run, and struck out four. He got every bit of the length that write-up argued for and finished two short anyway because Detroit put the ball in play. The second read, Jack Perkins over 3.5 at -156, cashed with four strikeouts in 3.2 innings on 53 pitches, clearing the number in the shorter of the two starts. One and one. Both cuts, Ryan Feltner and Cristian Javier, were correctly cut. That is the useful reminder heading into tonight: length is necessary for a strikeout over and it is never sufficient.

Final Verdict

Jacob deGrom over 5.5 strikeouts at -125 is the only playable contract on the August 20 board, and the reasons are specific: 65.2 percent on the season against a 55.6 percent price, 9 of 11 at Globe Life Field, a 10.96 per nine rate that ranks eleventh among the 129 pitchers with fifteen or more starts, an 11.45 home rate against 10.47 on the road, a 12.7 percent swinging strike rate over his last four turns, and two pitches that finished all nineteen of his recent strikeouts. The reasons to be nervous are equally specific and this page is not hiding them: 4.0 innings and 19.4 hitters faced per start over his last five, a 53-pitch exit in the third inning on August 13, and a Washington lineup that strikes out against right-handed pitching less often than all but five clubs in baseball. Grayson Rodriguez under 4.5 was cut at plus 1.77 percentage points with a 46.2 percent log behind it. Peter Lambert over 5.5 was cut at minus 0.94. The pitcher outs board and the first-inning board both publish as documented passes. There is no second read today. Analysis only, no tracked units, no grades against the season record.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the MLBProps.com headline read for August 20, 2026?

Jacob deGrom over 5.5 strikeouts at -125 on FanDuel, with the under at -102, for the Washington Nationals at the Texas Rangers, first pitch 8:05 PM ET at Globe Life Field opposite Andrew Alvarez. The price needs 55.6 percent. deGrom has cleared 5.5 in 15 of his 23 starts this season, 65.2 percent, and in 9 of his 11 starts at Globe Life Field.

Is there a second playable contract today?

No. Twelve contracts were priced and evaluated and exactly one graded playable. There is no second read on this board and this page is not going to invent one. The next closest strikeout contract, Grayson Rodriguez under 4.5 at -104, came back at plus 1.77 percentage points of edge and was cut.

What is the strongest argument against the deGrom over?

His last five starts. He has averaged 4.0 innings and 19.4 hitters faced in them, with strikeout totals of 6, 4, 3, 9 and 3, and on August 13 in Anaheim he was removed after facing one hitter in the third inning on 53 pitches. At his season rate of striking out 29.5 percent of the batters he faces, six strikeouts needs roughly 20 hitters. He has not averaged that over the last five turns. Washington also strikes out less often against right-handed pitching than all but five clubs in baseball, 20.7 percent.

Which contracts were cut and what killed each one?

Grayson Rodriguez under 4.5 strikeouts at -104 needs 51.0 percent and graded plus 1.77 percentage points of edge, short of the playable threshold, with his own log agreeing: he has stayed under 4.5 in only 6 of 13 starts, 46.2 percent, and in one of his last five. Peter Lambert over 5.5 at -111 came back at minus 0.94 percentage points because the de-vigged market number already had the over at 49.6 percent and the blend landed at 51.7 against a 52.6 percent price.

Was there a pitcher outs play or a first-inning play today?

No to both. Every pitcher outs contract on the board graded no bet. The closest were Kyle Bradish over 16.5 outs at -118 at plus 0.56 percentage points, Jacob deGrom over 15.5 outs at +164 at minus 0.07, and Gerrit Cole under 17.5 outs at +128 at minus 1.09. No first-inning market was priced in the line pull at all, so there is no price to grade a projection against. Both sections publish as documented passes.

Are these tracked picks?

No. Everything on this page is analysis only with no tracked units and no effect on the season record. The BetLegend card for August 20 is separate and carries a single play.