What This Board Is
Seventeen games are on the August 29 schedule, two of them doubleheaders, and thirty four pitchers were listed to start them. Only sixteen of those pitchers have made 20 or more starts this season, and those sixteen are the only ones a workload projection can honestly be run on.
The calculation is deliberately simple. Take season innings pitched, divide by games started, and you have innings per start. Multiply that by strikeouts per nine and divide by nine. The result is the number of strikeouts a pitcher records in an average start, given how long he actually goes and how often he misses bats. No opponent adjustment, no park term, no weather.
That simplicity is the point. A strikeout prop is priced off two inputs above all others, and a baseline that uses exactly those two inputs shows you where the market's number should sit before anybody starts arguing about the lineup across the plate.
The Full Qualified Board
| Starter | Opponent | GS | IP per start | K per 9 | Season Ks | Projected Ks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sánchez | Los Angeles Angels | 27 | 6.23 | 10.37 | 194 | 7.17 |
| Nolan McLean | Houston Astros | 26 | 5.70 | 10.17 | 168 | 6.44 |
| Cade Cavalli | Miami Marlins | 28 | 5.29 | 10.23 | 169 | 6.02 |
| José Soriano | Seattle Mariners | 26 | 5.54 | 8.92 | 143 | 5.49 |
| Kevin Gausman | Cincinnati Reds | 28 | 5.43 | 8.92 | 151 | 5.38 |
| Foster Griffin | Kansas City Royals | 26 | 5.73 | 8.14 | 135 | 5.19 |
| Shane Baz | Athletics | 26 | 5.81 | 8.03 | 135 | 5.19 |
| Sandy Alcantara | Washington Nationals | 28 | 6.54 | 6.71 | 137 | 4.88 |
| Kyle Leahy | Pittsburgh Pirates | 26 | 4.93 | 8.28 | 118 | 4.53 |
| Keider Montero | Los Angeles Dodgers | 22 | 6.32 | 5.96 | 92 | 4.18 |
| Walker Buehler | Tampa Bay Rays | 26 | 4.85 | 7.69 | 108 | 4.14 |
| Andrew Abbott | Chicago Cubs | 28 | 5.22 | 7.01 | 114 | 4.06 |
| MartÃn Pérez | Colorado Rockies | 21 | 5.48 | 6.63 | 85 | 4.04 |
| Merrill Kelly | San Francisco Giants | 24 | 5.59 | 5.88 | 88 | 3.65 |
| Bailey Ober | Chicago White Sox | 21 | 5.24 | 6.2 | 76 | 3.61 |
| Nick Martinez | San Diego Padres | 25 | 5.89 | 5.3 | 87 | 3.47 |
TOP EIGHT BY PROJECTED STRIKEOUTS
The Two Inputs Pull In Opposite Directions
The chart below plots strikeouts per nine against innings per start for the same sixteen pitchers, and the shape of it explains most of the board.
Sandy Alcantara is the clearest illustration. He has the longest workload on the board at 6.54 innings per start, more than anyone else, and he still projects only 4.88 strikeouts because his 6.71 strikeouts per nine sits in the bottom third of the qualified group. Length alone does not produce punchouts.
Nolan McLean is the mirror image. He averages 5.70 innings a start, a full three quarters of an inning less than Alcantara, and projects 6.44 because his rate is 10.17 per nine. Rate is doing all the work.
Cristopher Sanchez is the only pitcher on the board with both: 6.23 innings per start and 10.37 strikeouts per nine, which is why he tops the projection at 7.17 and why he is the only arm here whose realistic ceiling is a double digit strikeout night.
Where The Posted Number Is Most Likely To Be Wrong
Two spots on this board are worth watching when the numbers post, and both of them come from the market leaning on one input while ignoring the other.
Long innings, low rate. Alcantara at 183.2 innings is the most durable starter working today and durability reads as value on a strikeout over. His rate says otherwise. A number set on reputation and workload rather than on 6.71 strikeouts per nine is the classic overpriced over.
High rate, short leash. Cade Cavalli sits at 10.23 strikeouts per nine, third best on the board, and averages 5.29 innings a start, which is the fifth shortest workload among the qualified sixteen. A number priced off the rate alone asks him to do in five and a third innings what the rate implies over six.
What This Method Cannot See
A projection built from two season averages is a baseline, not a forecast. It does not know that a manager plans a short outing, that a bullpen is short after a doubleheader, that the opposing lineup puts the ball in play at an extreme rate, or that a pitcher is working through something. It also treats a start in April the same as a start last week.
Eighteen of the thirty four listed starters are excluded here, and several of them are excluded because the start counts reported for them produce innings per start figures that are not physically possible. That is a data quality limit and it is stated rather than smoothed over.
Final Note
The board runs from 7.17 down to 3.47, which is a spread of 3.70 strikeouts between the highest and lowest qualified starters on the same afternoon. The median sits at 4.71. Any posted line materially above a pitcher's number here needs a specific reason attached to it, and any line materially below it needs the same.
MLBProps.com posts a play only when a play is selected. This page is research and it carries none.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the projection calculated?
Season innings pitched divided by games started gives innings per start. That figure multiplied by strikeouts per nine and divided by nine gives projected strikeouts. It uses only 2026 regular season totals through August 28, 2026 from the MLB Stats API.
Why are only sixteen of the thirty four starters on the board?
A starter needs 20 or more starts this season to appear. Below that the innings per start figure is unstable, and several arms on today's card carry start counts that produce impossible averages, which is a data reliability problem rather than a pitching one.
Who projects highest on August 29, 2026?
Cristopher Sanchez at 7.17 projected strikeouts, from 6.23 innings per start and 10.37 strikeouts per nine across 27 starts. Nolan McLean is next at 6.44 and Cade Cavalli third at 6.02.
Who projects lowest?
Nick Martinez at 3.47, from 5.89 innings per start and 5.30 strikeouts per nine. He carries a 2.93 ERA, which is the reminder that a low strikeout projection is not a statement about how good a pitcher is.
Does this page contain a pick?
No. This is a research board. MLBProps.com posts picks only when a specific play is selected, and this page is published as analysis with no play attached.
What does a projection not account for?
Weather, umpire, bullpen plans, a short leash on a pitcher coming back from an injury, the opposing lineup's contact profile, and the possibility of an early exit. It is a workload times rate baseline and nothing more.