Bryan Woo averaged 7.7 strikeouts over his last 10 starts and cleared 6.5 K in 5 of his last 6 home outings at T-Mobile Park. The 2025 All-Star posted 198 strikeouts with a 0.93 WHIP last season. At +106, this is plus-money on a pitcher trending in the right direction.
Bryan Woo's season-long numbers in 2025 were outstanding: 15-7, 2.94 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 198 strikeouts in 186.2 innings. He made the All-Star team, earned All-MLB Second Team honors, and finished fifth in the AL Cy Young voting. But the number that matters most for tonight is what he did down the stretch.
Over his last 10 starts of the 2025 season, Woo averaged 7.7 strikeouts per outing. His last 5 starts: 6, 3, 9, 13, 7. Three of those five cleared 6.5, including a 13-strikeout masterpiece against the Angels on September 13. The trend indicator from our Props Engine reads "trending UP," which means his recent strikeout volume is accelerating relative to his season average of 6.6.
At +106 odds, the implied probability is roughly 48.5%. His last-10 data suggests he clears this line at closer to a 60% rate when he's locked in. That's a meaningful edge on a plus-money number.
Woo's home starts at T-Mobile Park tell an even more compelling story. Let's look at his last 6 home outings from the second half of 2025:
| Date | Opponent | IP | Strikeouts | Over 6.5? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 6.0 | 8 | ✓ |
| Aug 5 | Chicago White Sox | 7.0 | 9 | ✓ |
| Aug 10 | Tampa Bay Rays | 6.0 | 9 | ✓ |
| Aug 22 | Athletics | 7.0 | 7 | ✓ |
| Aug 27 | San Diego Padres | 5.2 | 6 | ✗ |
| Sep 8 | St. Louis Cardinals | 6.0 | 9 | ✓ |
5 of 6 recent home starts cleared 6.5 K (83%). The one miss was 6 strikeouts against San Diego in a shortened outing (5.2 IP). When Woo completes 6+ innings at home, he's virtually automatic over this line.
For the full season at T-Mobile Park, Woo went 7-7 on the over/under of 6.5 across 14 home starts. That 50% overall rate might look pedestrian, but it's misleading. His early-season home starts (April and May) were still calibration mode as he built up his pitch count. Once he settled in from July onward, the strikeouts came in bunches. Five of his last six, as shown above.
What makes Woo such a reliable strikeout pitcher? It starts with an elite four-seam fastball that sat 95-96 mph for most of 2025 and a slider that generated a 35% whiff rate. The combination is devastating because hitters have to commit early to catch up with the heater, which leaves them vulnerable to the slider diving out of the zone.
His 0.93 WHIP, the lowest among all qualified AL starters, tells you that Woo doesn't put runners on base. When you combine low baserunner traffic with a high strikeout rate, you get a pitcher who works deep into games without getting into trouble. That means more innings, more batters faced, and more opportunities to rack up K's.
The 198 strikeouts in 186.2 innings translates to a 9.5 K/9 rate, which was third-best among AL starters with 180+ innings. He also walked just 36 batters all season, giving him a ridiculous 5.5 K/BB ratio. Woo doesn't nibble, he attacks, and that aggressiveness fuels the strikeout volume.
| Metric | Value | Edge Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Over Rate | 43.3% (13/30) | Below line overall |
| Home Over Rate | 50.0% (7/14) | Coin flip full season |
| Recent Home (Last 6) | 83.3% (5/6) | Strong surge |
| Last 10 Avg K | 7.7 | +1.2 above line |
| Last 5 Avg K | 7.6 | Sustaining |
| Season Average K | 6.6 | Near line |
| Trend Direction | UP | Accelerating |
| Max K (2025) | 13 | Blowup ceiling |
| Season K/9 | 9.5 | Elite rate |
The full-season 43.3% over rate is depressed by early-season outings when Woo was building up. His recent form (last 10: 7.7 avg, last 6 home: 83% over) tells the real story. At +106, you need 48.5% to break even. His recent home data says 83%. This is a trend-based mispricing.
The Guardians were a solid offensive team in 2025, but they're not immune to strikeouts. Cleveland struck out 7.8 times per game against right-handed starters in the second half, which is right around league average. They won't hand Woo free K's, but they won't be an impossible matchup either.
The bigger factor is the ballpark. T-Mobile Park has historically suppressed offense, which means games there tend to stay tight. When the run environment is low, starters pitch deeper into games because managers have less incentive to go to the bullpen early. More innings for Woo means more chances to pile up strikeouts.
Gavin Williams on the other side is a strong pitcher in his own right (12-5, 3.06 ERA), which means this projects as a low-scoring affair. That's ideal for strikeout props: both starters will likely work 6+ innings, and Woo at home in a pitchers' duel is exactly the environment where he racks up K's.
Bryan Woo is pitching at home, where he cleared 6.5 K in 5 of his last 6 starts. His recent form shows 7.7 K per start over his last 10 outings, well above the 6.5 line. He's an All-Star with a 9.5 K/9 rate and the lowest WHIP in the American League. The matchup projects as a low-scoring game at a pitcher-friendly park, which means Woo should work deep.
At +106, you're getting plus-money on a pitcher whose recent trend data screams over. The books are pricing Woo's full-season averages instead of his second-half surge, and that's where the edge lives. Take the over and let the All-Star do his thing at home.