What This Board Is
A strikeout prop has two numbers on it and most analysis only argues about one. The line is the first. The price is the second, and the price is what turns a hit rate into a verdict.
So the method here is deliberately crude and deliberately complete. For every pitcher scheduled to start on August 31 who has a posted strikeout number, pull his 2026 game log, count what share of his own starts finished above tonight’s line, and put that share next to the break even percentage the posted price demands. If a pitcher has cleared 5.5 strikeouts in 33 percent of his starts and the over is priced at minus 130, the market is asking 56.52 percent of a man who has produced 33.3. That is a 23 point gap and it does not need a model to see.
No opponent adjustment is applied in the table. No park factor, no weather, no umpire, no bullpen usage. Those matter and they are handled in words further down, not in the arithmetic, because burying an adjustment inside a number is how a board stops being checkable.
The Full Posted Board
| Starter | Opponent | Opp K rate | GS | K per 9 | K per start | Posted over | Own hit rate | Break even | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Stock | Tampa Bay Rays | 18.56% | 5 | 9.15 | 4.20 | o3.5 +115 | 80.0% | 46.51% | +33.5 |
| Jackson Jobe | Minnesota Twins | 21.06% | 4 | 7.36 | 3.75 | o3.5 -115 | 75.0% | 53.49% | +21.5 |
| Aaron Nola | Arizona Diamondbacks | 19.17% | 27 | 9.63 | 5.67 | o4.5 -145 | 74.1% | 59.18% | +14.9 |
| Taj Bradley | Detroit Tigers | 22.60% | 26 | 10.32 | 6.50 | o5.5 -105 | 65.4% | 51.22% | +14.2 |
| George Kirby | Boston Red Sox | 21.29% | 25 | 7.68 | 5.04 | o4.5 -115 | 64.0% | 53.49% | +10.5 |
| Brady Singer | San Diego Padres | 21.75% | 26 | 7.34 | 4.31 | o4.5 +110 | 57.7% | 47.62% | +10.1 |
| Ian Seymour | New York Mets | 22.67% | 11 | 10.77 | 6.45 | o6.5 +110 | 54.5% | 47.62% | +6.9 |
| Kyle Harrison | Chicago Cubs | 21.58% | 21 | 11.06 | 6.05 | o5.5 +115 | 52.4% | 46.51% | +5.9 |
| Peter Lambert | Chicago White Sox | 23.82% | 23 | 8.79 | 5.43 | o5.5 +105 | 52.2% | 48.78% | +3.4 |
| Bryce Elder | San Francisco Giants | 21.39% | 25 | 7.39 | 4.72 | o4.5 +120 | 48.0% | 45.45% | +2.5 |
| Clay Holmes | Milwaukee Brewers | 21.45% | 13 | 6.54 | 4.23 | o4.5 +125 | 46.2% | 44.44% | +1.8 |
| Jacob deGrom | Athletics | 22.45% | 25 | 10.98 | 6.36 | o6.5 -105 | 48.0% | 51.22% | -3.2 |
| Payton Tolle | Seattle Mariners | 23.39% | 22 | 10.13 | 6.41 | o6.5 -115 | 50.0% | 53.49% | -3.5 |
| Anthony Kay | Houston Astros | 21.65% | 25 | 7.36 | 4.28 | o4.5 +110 | 44.0% | 47.62% | -3.6 |
| Ryan Gusto | Washington Nationals | 21.52% | 13 | 7.53 | 3.38 | o3.5 -145 | 53.8% | 59.18% | -5.4 |
| Gage Jump | Texas Rangers | 22.79% | 17 | 9.88 | 5.71 | o5.5 -120 | 47.1% | 54.55% | -7.4 |
| Walbert Ureña | New York Yankees | 24.61% | 22 | 8.66 | 5.00 | o5.5 -105 | 36.4% | 51.22% | -14.8 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | Philadelphia Phillies | 22.19% | 14 | 6.17 | 3.71 | o3.5 -130 | 35.7% | 56.52% | -20.8 |
| Tanner Gordon | Baltimore Orioles | 24.46% | 7 | 7.42 | 3.43 | o4.5 EVEN | 28.6% | 50.00% | -21.4 |
| Michael King | Cincinnati Reds | 25.34% | 27 | 7.79 | 5.00 | o5.5 -130 | 33.3% | 56.52% | -23.2 |
| Elmer Rodríguez | Los Angeles Angels | 25.13% | 5 | 6.26 | 3.20 | o4.5 EVEN | 20.0% | 50.00% | -30.0 |
| Will Dion | Miami Marlins | 21.78% | rel | 10.75 | 2.28 | o3.5 -130 | 22.2% | 56.52% | -34.3 |
Eleven of the twenty two posted overs sit above the rate their own price requires and eleven sit below. That split is close to what an efficient market should produce, which is worth saying out loud on a page that exists to look for gaps.
TOP EIGHT BY OWN HIT RATE ON TONIGHT’S NUMBER
The Two Ends Of The Board Both Come With A Catch
The widest positive gap belongs to Robert Stock, whose over 3.5 at plus 115 has cleared in four of his five starts, an 80 percent rate against a 46.51 percent break even. Then look one column left. He is facing Tampa Bay, the lowest strikeout offense in baseball at 18.56 percent. Five starts is also five starts. Both of those facts point the same direction and the gap does not survive either of them intact.
The widest negative gap belongs to Will Dion, who has not started a game this season. He has 18 relief appearances, a 10.75 strikeouts per nine rate that is the third best on this board, and an average of 2.28 strikeouts per outing because he is used in short bursts. The market has posted 3.5 at minus 130 on the assumption he is stretched out tonight. The 22.2 percent figure in the table is his relief record and it is not the right comparison. It is in the table because leaving it out would be worse, and it is flagged here because using it uncritically would be worse still.
Michael King is the row where the gap and the context disagree in the other direction. He has cleared 5.5 in nine of 27 starts, 33.3 percent, against a 56.52 percent break even at minus 130. That is the largest gap on the board belonging to a pitcher with a full season of starts behind him. He is also facing Cincinnati, the highest strikeout offense in baseball at 25.34 percent, in a park where the ball carries. The record and the matchup are pulling against each other and the honest answer is that this row is not as one sided as the number makes it look.
Where The Line Sits Furthest From The Rate
Four pitchers on this board carry a strikeouts per nine above 10, and three of the four are priced as though the market already knows it.
Kyle Harrison leads everyone at 11.06 per nine and is posted at 5.5, plus 115. He has cleared it in eleven of 21 starts, 52.4 percent, against a 46.51 percent break even. That is the cleanest positive row on the board that is not attached to a five start sample or a matchup caveat, and the reason it exists is workload rather than stuff: he averages 4.92 innings a start, so the rate has less time to convert.
Jacob deGrom is the opposite shape. He owns the second highest rate on the board at 10.98 per nine with 159 strikeouts in 130.1 innings, and his over 6.5 at minus 105 has cleared in twelve of 25 starts. Forty eight percent against a 51.22 percent break even. The reason is in his last six outings: 15, 10, 15, 6, 18 and 11 outs. Three of the last six lasted five innings or fewer. A 10.98 rate does nothing for a strikeout prop from the dugout.
Taj Bradley is the third, at 10.32 per nine, posted at 5.5 minus 105, cleared in seventeen of 26 starts for 65.4 percent against 51.22. He goes 5.67 innings a start, which is most of the story.
Payton Tolle at 10.13 rounds it out, posted at 6.5 minus 115. Exactly half his 22 starts have cleared it, against a 53.49 break even.
Method, Line By Line
Own hit rate is the share of that pitcher’s 2026 games started in which his final strikeout total finished strictly above tonight’s posted line. For Will Dion, who has no starts, it is the share of his relief appearances, and that is marked in the GS column as rel.
Break even is the American price converted to implied probability with no vig removal. Minus 130 becomes 130 divided by 230, which is 56.52 percent. Plus 115 becomes 100 divided by 215, which is 46.51 percent. Because the vig is left in, every break even in the table is slightly higher than a fair one, so the gap column is a conservative reading rather than a flattering one.
Opponent K rate is team strikeouts divided by team plate appearances for the 2026 season to date. The board spans 18.56 percent at Tampa Bay to 25.34 percent at Cincinnati, a 6.78 point spread, which is roughly the difference between one extra strikeout every two games and one every three.
The One Number To Keep
Across all 22 posted lines the median gap is minus 0.73 points. Half the board sits within four points of its own price and the middle of it sits fractionally on the wrong side. That is what a well made market looks like, and it is the reason a board like this is worth publishing even when it finds very little: the finding is that on most nights there is very little to find, and the rows that look enormous are the rows with five game samples or a matchup running the other way.
Board FAQ
Is anything on this page a pick?
No. There is no play, no unit and no recommendation anywhere on it. It is a board that prints every posted number next to the pitcher's own record and the price's break even, so a reader can see where those three things disagree.
Why measure a pitcher against his own record instead of a projection?
A projection compresses workload and rate into one number and hides the variance. A hit rate keeps it. Jacob deGrom projects well on rate and has cleared 6.5 in only twelve of 25 starts, and only the second of those two facts tells you what actually happens on a given night.
Why is the vig left in the break even column?
Because removing it requires assuming a fair two way price and the point of the column is what a bettor is actually charged. Leaving it in makes every gap in the table slightly smaller than a devigged version would show, so the board understates rather than overstates.
Why is a pitcher with five starts on the same board as one with 27?
Because leaving him out would hide a posted line. The GS column is printed on every row so a five start sample is never mistaken for a season, and the two largest gaps on the board are both flagged in the text as sample or matchup artefacts.
What is the opponent K rate column for?
It is the context the arithmetic ignores. Tampa Bay strikes out in 18.56 percent of plate appearances and Cincinnati in 25.34 percent. A gap earned against the bottom of that range is worth less than the same gap earned against the top.
Where do the lines come from?
A live sportsbook prop board read at 17:35 UTC on August 31, 2026. Prices move, and any number here should be re checked against the live board before it is used for anything.