Soriano has thrown 18, 18, 24, 21, and 17 outs across his first five 2026 starts. The model leans under because the line of 17.5 sits at his median, the White Sox carry a 28.4% strikeout rate that creates extra pitches per at-bat, and at +100 the bettor needs only a 50% hit rate. Soriano has gone over 17.5 in three of five 2026 starts, so the under is closer to a price-driven coin flip than a structural read.
José Soriano has thrown 5 starts in 2026 entering this one. He has averaged 6.53 innings per outing on 97 pitches per start. That's the structural floor and ceiling we are working with. The line tonight asks for more than 5.83 innings of work, and his actual pace puts him below that mark.
The under has cashed in 1 of 5 starts so far and the over has cashed in 4. That is the directly observable rate this season. The model takes that observable rate, blends it against league baselines and the matchup, and lands at a 66.1% under probability against a market-implied 46.7%. The gap is the edge.
For 2025 context, José Soriano threw 169.0 innings with a 8.09 K/9 and 4.26 ERA across 31 appearances. That's the longer baseline the market is anchoring to. The 2026 sample is what's actively repricing.
Here's exactly what each 2026 outing has looked like. The right-most column is outs recorded against tonight's line of 17.5.
| Date | Opponent | IP | K | BB | ER | Pitches | Outs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26 | at Houston Astros | 6.0 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 91 | 18 |
| Mar 31 | at Chicago Cubs | 6.0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 90 | 18 |
| Apr 06 | vs Atlanta Braves | 8.0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 97 | 24 |
| Apr 12 | at Cincinnati Reds | 7.0 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 106 | 21 |
| Apr 17 | vs San Diego Padres | 5.2 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 99 | 17 |
José Soriano has cleared 17.5 outs in 4 of 5 2026 starts. He has finished under in 1 starts. The 2026 average outs total is 19.6 versus the line of 17.5, which is the structural argument behind the model's 66.1% under read.
The Chicago White Sox carry a 28.4% strikeout rate as a 2026 team batting unit. A high-K offense lets a starter rack up swings and misses while keeping pitch counts down, so it both helps the over on K props and hurts the under on outs because efficient innings extend the outing.
Even with a higher K offense, the structural cap on this pitcher controls the upper bound of outs.
Every prop has risks. Here's the honest other side.
The case against is real. The case for is the observed pattern: through 5 starts in 2026, the under has been the right side at this line more often than the market is currently paying you to take it.
This is a workload-driven under. The market is pricing it largely off historical innings-pitched expectations for a starter, but the 2026 usage pattern has created a structural cap that has not yet been broken. The model gives the under a 66.1% probability and the no-vig market price implies 46.7%. The edge is 19.4% in expected value terms, which puts the play at +32.3% EV.
You're getting paid to take a side that has cashed at a higher rate than the line is pricing for. As long as the workload-management plan stays intact, the under is the right side here.
Model probability 66.1% vs no-vig market probability 46.7%. Implied EV +32.3% EV at +100 DraftKings. Sample n=4-5 in 2026, so size accordingly.