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MLB Pitcher Props of Interest, April 28, 2026: 13 Live Edges From Today's Analyzer Run

The MLBProps.com analyzer pulled 5,861 prop rows from DraftKings and FanDuel this morning, transformed them into the model schema, and flagged 44 pitcher candidates with positive expected value. The top five plays each have a standalone breakdown linked from Today's Picks. Below are ranks six through eighteen, every play priced and modeled.

🎯 Props of Interest ⚾ MLB April 28, 2026 April 28, 2026 · 13 props · pitcher markets only
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Each card shows the player, the prop, the side and line, the price and book, the analyzer's model probability, the no-vig market probability after we strip out the bookmaker's margin, and the resulting edge in EV terms. The picks are sorted by EV, highest at the top. Every row in this article comes from the same model run that produced today's standalone articles.

Chase Burns headshot

Chase Burns Under 17.5 Outs

Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds

+49.7% EV -103 DraftKings Model 76.0% / No-vig 47.5% Edge +28.5%

Companion to the K under at 6.5; same start, total-outs angle. Model centers Burns at 13.4 outs.

Chase Burns headshot

Chase Burns Under 7.5 Strikeouts

Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds

+32.1% EV -154 DraftKings Model 80.1% / No-vig 57.5% Edge +22.6%

Higher juice, higher hit rate. Model gives 80% to land below 7.5 strikeouts; useful as a parlay leg.

Kyle Leahy headshot

Kyle Leahy Under 3.5 Strikeouts

St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

+31.8% EV +127 DraftKings Model 58.1% / No-vig 41.8% Edge +16.3%

Companion to the outs under. Leahy averages 3.25 K per start in 2026 on 82 pitches; under is right at his median.

Clay Holmes headshot

Clay Holmes Under 17.5 Outs

Washington Nationals @ New York Mets

+29.7% EV -133 DraftKings Model 74.0% / No-vig 53.4% Edge +20.6%

Holmes has been on a 95-100 pitch leash since the rotation conversion; structural under.

Kai-Wei Teng headshot

Kai-Wei Teng Over 2.5 Strikeouts

Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles

+28.6% EV -167 DK/FD Model 80.5% / No-vig 59.2% Edge +21.3%

Threshold over against a free-swinging Orioles lineup at 24.9% K rate.

Tanner Bibee headshot

Tanner Bibee Under 17.5 Outs

Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians

+26.5% EV -108 DraftKings Model 65.7% / No-vig 48.5% Edge +17.2%

Rays patient lineup tends to push pitch counts; Bibee sits short on most of his 2026 starts.

Merrill Kelly headshot

Merrill Kelly Under 16.5 Outs

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers

+22.9% EV -118 DraftKings Model 66.5% / No-vig 50.4% Edge +16.1%

Brewers grind at-bats. Kelly's 2026 outs profile clusters at 15-16 outs.

Zack Littell headshot

Zack Littell Under 16.5 Outs

Washington Nationals @ New York Mets

+22.8% EV -120 DraftKings Model 67.0% / No-vig 51.0% Edge +16.0%

Littell has been on a strict pitch-count plan since the rotation move.

José Soriano headshot

José Soriano Under 5.5 Strikeouts

Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox

+22.6% EV +120 DraftKings Model 55.7% / No-vig 42.7% Edge +13.0%

Plus-money side on a pitcher whose K-per-start average is 7.8 but whose median sits closer to 6 vs strong-K lineups.

Logan Gilbert headshot

Logan Gilbert Under 17.5 Outs

Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins

+22.1% EV +105 DraftKings Model 59.6% / No-vig 45.5% Edge +14.1%

Twins lineup has been making contact; Gilbert at plus money on the under is priced as a coin flip.

Kyle Freeland headshot

Kyle Freeland Over 14.5 Outs

Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds

+22.1% EV -112 DraftKings Model 64.5% / No-vig 49.4% Edge +15.1%

Counter-intuitive direction. Reds are a low-K lineup; Freeland gets to 5 IP via contact rather than swings-and-misses.

Nick Martinez headshot

Nick Martinez Over 3.5 Strikeouts

Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians

+21.2% EV -116 DraftKings Model 65.1% / No-vig 50.2% Edge +14.9%

Threshold over at a low number; Martinez has cleared 3.5 K in most of his 2026 starts.

Trey Yesavage headshot

Trey Yesavage Under 5.5 Strikeouts

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

+18.7% EV -114 DraftKings Model 63.2% / No-vig 50.2% Edge +13.1%

MLB rookie debut; small sample (n=2). Use as research, not full-confidence.

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