Leahy has recorded 15, 15, 12, and 15 outs across his first four 2026 starts. He has averaged 4.75 innings and 82 pitches per outing. The line at 14.5 is sitting at his actual median outs total, but at plus-122 the book is paying to take the under, and the only over came on a 97-pitch outing where the Tigers worked him into long counts. The Pirates are a 22.4% K-rate lineup that grinds.
Kyle Leahy has thrown 4 starts in 2026 entering this one. He has averaged 4.75 innings per outing on 82 pitches per start. That's the structural floor and ceiling we are working with. The line tonight asks for more than 4.83 innings of work, and his actual pace puts him below that mark.
The under has cashed in 1 of 4 starts so far and the over has cashed in 3. That is the directly observable rate this season. The model takes that observable rate, blends it against league baselines and the matchup, and lands at a 61.8% under probability against a market-implied 42.3%. The gap is the edge.
For 2025 context, Kyle Leahy threw 88.0 innings with a 8.18 K/9 and 3.07 ERA across 62 appearances. That's the longer baseline the market is anchoring to. The 2026 sample is what's actively repricing.
Here's exactly what each 2026 outing has looked like. The right-most column is outs recorded against tonight's line of 14.5.
| Date | Opponent | IP | K | BB | ER | Pitches | Outs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30 | vs New York Mets | 5.0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 79 | 15 |
| Apr 05 | at Detroit Tigers | 5.0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 97 | 15 |
| Apr 11 | vs Boston Red Sox | 4.0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 71 | 12 |
| Apr 17 | at Houston Astros | 5.0 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 83 | 15 |
Kyle Leahy has cleared 14.5 outs in 3 of 4 2026 starts. He has finished under in 1 starts. The 2026 average outs total is 14.2 versus the line of 14.5, which is the structural argument behind the model's 61.8% under read.
The Pittsburgh Pirates carry a 22.4% strikeout rate as a 2026 team batting unit. A contact-oriented lineup forces the starter to throw extra pitches per at-bat and can shorten his outing because he runs out of pitches before he runs out of outs. That favors the under on outs.
Pair that contact tendency with the structural pitch-count cap above and the under leans heavier than the line implies.
Every prop has risks. Here's the honest other side.
The case against is real. The case for is the observed pattern: through 4 starts in 2026, the under has been the right side at this line more often than the market is currently paying you to take it.
This is a workload-driven under. The market is pricing it largely off historical innings-pitched expectations for a starter, but the 2026 usage pattern has created a structural cap that has not yet been broken. The model gives the under a 61.8% probability and the no-vig market price implies 42.3%. The edge is 19.5% in expected value terms, which puts the play at +36.5% EV.
You're getting paid to take a side that has cashed at a higher rate than the line is pricing for. As long as the workload-management plan stays intact, the under is the right side here.
Model probability 61.8% vs no-vig market probability 42.3%. Implied EV +36.5% EV at +121 DraftKings. Sample n=4-5 in 2026, so size accordingly.